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Long Play Updates

Alon USA Energy - ALJ - cls: 10.53 chg: +0.14 stop: see play

No entry yet on ALJ. The energy stocks were higher but ALJ topped out at $10.69 this afternoon. We have listed two separate entry points. We are listing one entry point to buy ALJ at $10.75, which would be a new relative high. If triggered at $10.75 we are suggesting a stop loss at $9.75. If the stock pulls back then we're suggesting readers buy a dip at $9.65 with a stop loss at $9.24. Our target is the 100-dma or $12.50, whichever ALJ hits first. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $17 target.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/06/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 604 thousand

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AMR Corp. - AMR - close: 9.68 change: -0.27 stop: *see details*

Oil futures soared higher today and shares of AMR only lost 2.7%. I was surprised the damage wasn't worse. The XAL airlines index gave up about 4%. AMR dipped to $8.90 intraday. Taking a closer look at oil and the airlines we're going to modify our suggested entry point to buy AMR. Instead of $8.60 we are suggesting readers wait for a dip into the $8.15-8.00 zone. We're also going to move the suggested stop loss to $7.55, which is about 5 cents under the simple 50-dma. We're setting several targets. Our first target will be $9.90. Our second target will be $11.90. Our third target will be $14.90. Over the weekend we suggested that risk-averse traders consider a collar on this play. If you buy 100 shares of AMR then sell an out of the money call and then use the money from the call to pay for most of your purchase of a put contract to protect you.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/15/2008 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 24.6 million

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Carpenter Tech. - CRS - cls: 39.44 chg: -0.32 stop: 37.95

CRS is still bouncing around the $38.00-40.00 zone. We're suggesting readers buy CRS at $40.25 with a stop loss at $37.95. If triggered our target is the $44.75 mark.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 865 thousand

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CNX Gas - CXG - cls: 31.11 chg: +0.55 stop: 29.35

Natural gas stocks continue to rally. CXG broke out to a new two-week high. Our suggested entry point to buy the stock was $31.05. If you're the patient type CXG might provide another entry point on a dip back toward $30.00. Our target is the $34.00-35.00 zone.

Picked on August 21 at $31.05 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.06
Earnings Date 10/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 373 thousand

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Petrohawk Energy - HK - close: 33.91 chg: +1.90 stop: 29.90*new*

The rally in natural gas stocks helped power a 5.9% gain in shares of HK today. The stock hit an intraday high of $34.45 almost enough to tag our first target. We would strongly suggest readers consider taking some money off the table right here! We're raising our stop loss to $29.90. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop to breakeven or higher. We have two targets. Our first target is $34.85. Our second target is $38.50.

Picked on August 20 at $30.55 *triggered
Change since picked: + 3.36
Earnings Date 11/06/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10.3 million

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Monster Worldwide - MNST - cls: 19.01 chg: -0.10 stop: 18.45*new*

MNST dipped toward the $18.65 level again and traders continue to buy the dips. However, the short-term charts are not looking very bullish. We suggested readers buy the dip yesterday but there was no follow through higher today. That should be bulls on notice that MNST may be weaker than previously thought. We are adjusting our stop loss to $18.45. Look for a move over today's high (19.25) before considering new bullish positions. Our short-term target is the $21.75 mark.

Picked on August 20 at $19.11
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million
 

Short Play Updates

Bank of America - BAC - cls: 29.04 change: -0.25 stop: 31.55

Banking stocks tried to rebound today. BAC managed a bounce from its simple 50-dma near $28.00. Unfortunately, the rally didn't get very far. We remain bearish on the financials and BAC and would still consider new short positions here. Our target is $25.25. We're going to set a secondary target of $22.50 but strongly suggest readers take some money off the table at our first target.

Picked on August 18 at $29.30
Change since picked: - 0.26
Earnings Date 10/16/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 90.8 million

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Capital Trust - CT - close: 12.75 change: -0.50 stop: 14.65 *new*

Shares of CT continue to sink. The stock hit another new relative low today at $12.15. We're adjusting our stop loss to $14.65. We're not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. This remains an aggressive play because the stock is so volatile. The most recent data listed short interest at almost 28% of the small 19 million-share float. That definitely raises our risk for a short squeeze. Our second target is $10.25.

Picked on August 04 at $14.38 /1st target hit $12.55
Change since picked: - 1.63
Earnings Date 07/29/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 278 thousand

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Merrill Lynch - MER - close: 24.34 change: -0.07 stop: 27.25

MER was part of a settlement with the NY Attorney General over the recent Auction Rate Securities fiasco. The news failed to have much impact on the stock price. The trend is still lower. More conservative traders may want to use a tighter stop. Our first target is $22.50. Our second target is $20.25. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $7.00 target.

Picked on August 07 at $26.10
Change since picked: - 1.76
Earnings Date 10/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 42.2 million

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SunTrust Banks - STI - close: 40.33 chg: -0.15 stop: 41.55

Banking stocks tried to bounce but didn't get very far. Look for a failed rally under $41.00 or a new drop under $38.00 to open positions. Yesterday we suggested new shorts under $39.00 (the low today was $39.06) and this entry should still work although more momentum traders may want to wait for a new relative low instead. Our target is $32.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $30 target.

Picked on August 20 at $38.45 *triggered
Change since picked: + 1.88
Earnings Date 10/16/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10.4 million
 

Closed Long Plays

Esterline Tech. - ESL - close: 49.93 chg: -1.08 stop: 49.90

The profit taking in ESL continued into Thursday. Shares slipped to $49.78 intraday. Our stop loss was at $49.90 so the play is now closed. The $50.00 region should be support and the 50-dma also near $50.00 should help underpin this level. A breakdown here would be bad news and could portend a drop back toward $45.

Picked on August 12 at $52.30 / stopped out 49.90
Change since picked: - 2.37
Earnings Date 08/28/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 352 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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