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Long Play Updates

Alon USA Energy - ALJ - cls: 11.25 chg: -0.02 stop: 10.45 *new*

ALJ was showing a lot of strength this morning. Shares rallied to $12.07 before giving up all its gains to close in the red. This may be a short-term top in ALJ. More conservative types might want to take some money off the table. We're turning defensive and raising our stop loss to $10.45. Our target is the 100-dma (currently $12.45). FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $17 target.

Picked on August 22 at $10.75
Change since picked: + 0.52
Earnings Date 11/06/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 604 thousand

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AMR Corp. - AMR - close: 9.61 change: -0.45 stop: *see details*

Right on cue shares of AMR have started sinking again. We don't see any changes from our previous comments. Right now our play is to buy a dip in AMR in the $8.15-8.00 zone. The $8.00 region is both price support and technical support with its converging 50 and 100-dma. If triggered at $8.15 we'll use a stop loss at $7.55. We're setting several targets. Our first target will be $9.90. Our second target will be $11.90. Our third target will be $14.90. We have also listed an alternative strategy for risk-averse traders. You can lower your risk with a collar on AMR. When you buy the stock sell an out of the money call option (per 100 shares of AMR that you own) and use this money from the call option to help pay for a put option to protect you should AMR suddenly plunge lower. It's not a perfect strategy. You limit your upside and will not see all the targets we listed but you also limit your downside, which may help some readers sleep better at night.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/15/2008 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 24.6 million

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CNX Gas - CXG - cls: 30.80 chg: +0.48 stop: 29.35

Strength in natural gas futures lifted the energy sector and CXG added 1.5%. We remain bullish on the stock. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. Our target is the $34.00-35.00 zone.

Picked on August 21 at $31.05 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.25
Earnings Date 10/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 373 thousand

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Exterran Holdings - EXH - close: 48.34 change: +1.37 stop: 48.75

EXH is trying to bounce and rose 2.9% today. We were prepared to drop it if it didn't show some strength. The play is still unopened as we wait for a breakout over resistance at $50.00. Our suggested entry point is $50.25. If triggered our target is the $54.00-55.00 zone. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. There isn't any clear resistance until the $60 region. FYI: The latest data listed short interest at 8% of the 33 million-share float.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/27/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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Petrohawk Energy - HK - close: 35.47 chg: +1.63 stop: 31.89 *new*

Target exceeded. The rally in natural gas helped fuel a 4.8% gain in shares of HK. The stock hit $36.00 intraday. Our first target was $34.85. We strongly suggest readers take some profits here if you have not done so already. We are raising our stop loss to $31.89. Our second target is $38.50. However, if HK fails at its 50-dma around $37.20 we'll probably exit early!

Picked on August 20 at $30.55 */1st target exceeded (36.00 hi)
Change since picked: + 4.92
Earnings Date 11/06/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10.3 million

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Monster Worldwide - MNST - cls: 19.21 chg: +0.17 stop: 18.94 *new*

MNST is not making much progress. Shares have been trading sideways for the last few days. We're starting to see a pattern of lower highs, which is bearish and suggests a breakdown lower soon. We're going to play defensively and raise our stop loss to $18.94. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Our short-term target is the $21.75 mark.

Picked on August 20 at $19.11
Change since picked: + 0.10
Earnings Date 10/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

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UltraShort Midcap - MZZ - close: 57.40 chg: -0.54 stop: 55.65

The MZZ tried to rally past the $58.50 level but failed for the second time in two days. We do not see any changes from our previous comments. Readers should remember that the MZZ will move twice the inverse of the S&P MidCap 400 index. Our suggested entry point to buy the MZZ is $58.75. If triggered we're suggesting a stop loss under the 8/22/08 low of $55.71. Our target is the $64.50 mark.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 704 thousand

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Titanium Metals - TIE - cls: 13.46 change: +0.54 stop: 11.49

TIE turned in another strong session and on strong volume for the second day in a row. This big volume on the rally is very bullish. However, we are going to play cautious here and adjust our target to the 100-dma in the $14.35-14.50 range. More aggressive traders could aim higher (like $15.00) we'll exit at $14.35. We'd like to raise our stop loss but yesterday's low was only $11.60. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops anyway.

Picked on August 21 at $12.47
Change since picked: + 0.99
Earnings Date 10/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.4 million
 

Short Play Updates

Bank of America - BAC - cls: 29.02 change: +0.06 stop: 31.05

Financial stocks are still a vulnerable spot in the market. We remain bearish on BAC but readers will want to see a clear failed rally near $30.00 or a new decline under the 50-dma to open new short positions. More conservative traders might want to adjust their stop loss toward $30.50. We have two targets. Our first target is $25.25. Our second, more aggressive target is $22.50. We strongly suggest readers take some money off the table at our first target.

Picked on August 18 at $29.30
Change since picked: - 0.28
Earnings Date 10/16/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 90.8 million

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Cinci. Fincl. Corp. - CINF - cls: 28.22 change: +0.58 stop: 28.05

Hmmm.... CINF displayed some relative strength today with a 2% gain. We are currently waiting for a breakdown under $27.00 with a trigger for shorts at $26.85. Nimble traders might want to consider shorts on a failed rally near the top of the trading range around $29.00. If triggered we have two targets. Our first target is $25.05. Our second target is $23.00.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/29/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million

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Capital Trust - CT - close: 11.75 change: -0.28 stop: 14.01

CT continues to under perform. The stock sank to another new relative low today. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. If you have not taken any money off the table yet we would strongly suggest you do so now. The stock has already exceeded our $12.55 target. Our secondary target is $10.75. This remains an aggressive play because the stock is so volatile. The most recent data listed short interest at almost 28% of the small 19 million-share float. That definitely raises our risk for a short squeeze.

Picked on August 04 at $14.38 /1st target hit $12.55
Change since picked: - 2.63
Earnings Date 07/29/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 278 thousand

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Merrill Lynch - MER - close: 24.10 change: -0.10 stop: 26.10*new*

MER drifted lower for most of the session before a late day bounce pared its losses. We are adjusting our stop loss to $26.10 (breakeven). Our first target is $22.50. Our second target is $20.25. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $7.00 target.

Picked on August 07 at $26.10
Change since picked: - 2.00
Earnings Date 10/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 42.2 million

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NYSE Euronext - NYX - cls: 38.26 chg: -1.15 stop: 41.51

Right on cue, shares of NYX traded lower. The stock lost almost 3% by the closing bell. We don't see any changes from our prior comments. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $32 target. We are setting two targets. Our first target is $35.50. The $35.00 level might be round-number support. Our second target is $31.00. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at 6% of the 257 million-share float. That's about three days worth of short interest.

Picked on August 25 at $39.41
Change since picked: - 1.15
Earnings Date 11/03/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.0 million

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Financial Sector SPDR - XLF - cls: 20.17 chg: +0.16 stop: 20.75

Financials are still struggling and today the bearish trend took a rest. We are suggesting readers use a trigger at $19.49 to short the XLF (or buy put options). More aggressive traders may want to jump in now. If we are triggered at $19.49 we are suggesting a stop loss at $20.75. Our target is the $17.00 mark. The July 2008 low was $16.77.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 201 million
 

Closed Long Plays

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Closed Short Plays

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