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Long Play Updates

None
 

Short Play Updates

Alcoa - AA - close: 28.56 change: -1.24 stop: 32.05

Our entry point in AA did not pan out the way we expected. Instead of bouncing back to resistance and then rolling over shares of AA only bounced to $30.18 before quickly reversing. The stock ended the day off 4% and at new multi-month lows and on strong volume. Our suggested entry point for shorts was $30.35. We may have to re-evaluate an entry point but we're going to stick to our plan for now. More aggressive traders may want to pile on the bandwagon now. If triggered our target is the $27.05 mark. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $17.00 target. The latest data listed short interest at just 2.7% of the float. FYI: I think our biggest risk in shorting AA would be any buyout or acquisition news. Over the past few months I've heard some analysts speculate that AA might be a target but at this point it is just speculation.

Picked on September xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/07/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 12.8 million

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Expedia - EXPE - close: 17.82 change: +0.36 stop: 18.35

Shares of EXPE managed to buck the down trend today after getting a "buy" rating and a $25 price target from an analyst firm this morning. The stock rallied to $18.06 before failing at its 10-dma. This looks like another entry point for bearish positions. We have two targets. Our first target is $15.10. Our second target is $13.50. Be sure to take some money off the table at our first target since the $15.00 level might be round-number support. The Point & Figure chart is bearish and forecasts a $9.00 target. FYI: The latest data listed short interest at 5% of the 205 million-share float. That is just under three days worth of short interest.

Picked on September 03 at $17.25 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.57
Earnings Date 11/06/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.2 million

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Genuine Parts - GPC - cls: 41.50 chg: -0.74 stop: 44.01

GPC followed the market lower. The stock broke through its 100-dma and closed near its lows for the session, which is normally a bearish sign for the next day. The move under $42.00 looks like another entry point for shorts. Our target is the $38.50 mark. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower. The P&F chart is bearish with a $28 target. We don't see any significant levels of short interest.

Picked on August 31 at $42.42
Change since picked: - 0.92
Earnings Date 10/17/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million

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Hologic Inc. - HOLX - close: 19.18 chg: -0.82 stop: 21.05

HOLX also suffered some steep selling with a 4% decline and a new three-week low. The MACD on the daily chart is near a new sell signal. We had listed a trigger to open bearish positions at $19.60 so the play is now open. We have two targets. Our first target is $18.15 near the August low. Expect a bounce when HOLX nears $18.00. Our second target is the $16.55 mark.

Picked on September 04 at $19.60 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.42
Earnings Date 11/06/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.5 million

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Kimberly-Clark - KMB - cls: 61.27 chg: -0.92 stop: 63.51

KMB displayed some relative strength by only losing 1.4% versus a 3% drop in the S&P 500. It looks like the stock has produced a bearish double top pattern but we're waiting on a little more confirmation. We are suggesting a trigger to short KMB at $60.75. More conservative traders may want to use a stop loss above last Thursday's high of 62.84. If we are triggered at $60.75 our target is the $56.00 mark. We do not see any significant short interest. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $54 target.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/22/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million

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Merck - MRK - close: 34.17 change: -0.50 stop: 36.85

MRK traded lower but still hasn't broken through the $34.00 level yet. We're not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. Our target is the $32.00 level. More aggressive traders may want to aim for $30.00. The P&F chart is bearish and points to a $23 target. We don't see any significant amounts of short interest.

Picked on August 31 at $35.67
Change since picked: - 1.50
Earnings Date 10/22/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 17.8 million

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Rockwell Autom. - ROK - close: 43.79 chg: -2.40 stop: 50.05

ROK was hit hard by the market-wide sell-off. Shares lost more than 5% and broke through potential support at the $45.00 mark and its 50-dma. The stock closed near its lows for the session, which is bearish for tomorrow. Our target is $43.00. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower ($41-40). Short interest is at 2.2% of the float. In other news today ROK announced that it would present at the Morgan Stanley Global Industrials CEOs Unplugged Conference in Laguna Niguel, California, on Wednesday, September 10, 2008.

Picked on August 31 at $47.21
Change since picked: - 3.42
Earnings Date 11/06/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million
 

Closed Long Plays

Monster Worldwide - MNST - cls: 19.15 chg: -0.73 stop: 19.11*

MNST was not immune to the market sell-off today. Shares broke their short-term trend of higher lows and dipped to $19.06 intraday. Our recently adjusted stop loss was $19.11.

Picked on August 20 at $19.11
Change since picked: + 0.04
Earnings Date 10/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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