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Long Play Updates

None
 

Short Play Updates

Expedia - EXPE - close: 17.64 change: -0.18 stop: 18.35

Online travel service EXPE under performed the markets on Friday. The intraday bounce failed midday and the stock was fading into the weekend. We remain bearish and would continue open new positions with shares under the 10-dma and above $17.00. We have two targets. Our first target is $15.10. Our second target is $13.50. Be sure to take some money off the table at our first target since the $15.00 level might be round-number support. The Point & Figure chart is bearish and forecasts a $9.00 target. FYI: The latest data listed short interest at 5% of the 205 million-share float. That is just under three days worth of short interest.

Picked on September 03 at $17.25 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.39
Earnings Date 11/06/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.2 million

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Genuine Parts - GPC - cls: 41.60 chg: +0.10 stop: 44.01

In the last four weeks GPC has produced a bearish double-top pattern. The stock has also broken down through its trendline of higher lows. Technicals have turned bearish. Yet short-term we are expecting a bounce. Watch for a rebound into the $42.50-43.00 zone. A failed rally under $43.00 could be used as a new bearish entry point. Our target is the $38.50 mark. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower. The P&F chart is bearish with a $28 target. We don't see any significant levels of short interest.

Picked on August 31 at $42.42
Change since picked: - 0.82
Earnings Date 10/17/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million

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Hologic Inc. - HOLX - close: 19.81 chg: +0.63 stop: 21.05

After three days of weakness HOLX delivered a strong bounce from its Friday lows. Broken support at $20.00 should be new resistance. If $20.00 doesn't hold HOLX should find additional resistance near $21.00. More conservative traders may want to adjust their stop or consider an early exit now to cut their losses. This bounce may not be over yet and you could always jump back in later. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. We have two targets. Our first target is $18.15 near the August low. Expect a bounce when HOLX nears $18.00. Our second target is the $16.55 mark.

Picked on September 04 at $19.60 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.21
Earnings Date 11/06/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.5 million

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Merck - MRK - close: 34.30 change: +0.13 stop: 36.05 *new*

We don't see any real changes from our previous comments on MRK. The stock sank to $33.59 on Friday and then bounced back above short-term support near $34.00. The bounce probably isn't over yet and we would expect MRK to trade near $35 again. We are adjusting our stop loss to $36.05. More conservative traders could adjust their stops toward breakeven (35.67). Wait for the bounce to fail before considering new shorts. Our target is the $32.00 level. More aggressive traders may want to aim for $30.00. The P&F chart is bearish and points to a $23 target. We don't see any significant amounts of short interest.

Picked on August 31 at $35.67
Change since picked: - 1.37
Earnings Date 10/22/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 17.8 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

Alcoa - AA - close: 28.30 change: +0.26 stop: 32.05

Shares of AA traded lower all week as we thought they might. Unfortunately, the stock never hit our preferred entry point to open the play. AA dipped to $27.24 intraday on Friday and bounced back sharply. Our target was $27.05 since the $27.00 level looks like it might be support. We are dropping AA as a bearish candidate and re-listing it as a bullish candidate in an effort to try and capture the short-term rebound.

Picked on September xx at $xx.xx *never opened
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/07/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 12.8 million

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Credit Suisse - CS - cls: 45.67 change: +0.74 stop: 47.51

The investment brokers bounced thanks to a rebound in LEH as speculation over a rescue for LEH continues. A widespread rebound in the U.S. financials also helped the sector. CS rallied from short-term support near $44.00 and looks poised to challenge short-term resistance at $46.00 soon. We were tempted to keep CS as a bearish play since the stock does have some resistance overhead. Unfortunately, we're more concerned that the financials might see a strong relief rally on the FRE/FNM news this week. We're suggesting traders cut their losses early right here.

Picked on September 04 at $44.93 /early exit 45.67
Change since picked: + 0.74
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unknown)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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ICICI Bank - IBN - cls: 31.71 change: +1.07 stop: 33.25

We cautioned readers on Thursday night that this was an aggressive (a.k.a. higher-risk) entry point on IBN. The stock bounced from the $30.00 level and erased most of Thursday's losses. At the moment we're concerned that financials might see a strong relief rally this week. We're cutting our losses early right here.

Picked on September 04 at $30.64 /earl exit 31.71
Change since picked: + 1.07
Earnings Date 10/13/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.4 million

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Kimberly-Clark - KMB - cls: 62.19 chg: +0.92 stop: 63.51

We are giving up on KMB as a bearish candidate. It still looks like a bearish double-top pattern with the August and September peaks in KMB. Yet there hasn't been any real selling pressure. The stock just recovered all of Thursday's losses. KMB may be too much of a defensive play for us to short at this time. The stock never hit our suggested entry point at $60.75.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx *never opened
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/22/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million

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Rockwell Autom. - ROK - close: 43.48 chg: -0.31 stop: 50.05

Target achieved. Friday's morning weakness was enough to send ROK to $42.62. Our target was $43.00. We would keep an eye on ROK. Another failed rally under resistance near $46 might be another entry point.

Picked on August 31 at $47.21 / target hit (43.00)
Change since picked: - 3.73
Earnings Date 11/06/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million
 

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