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Long Play Updates

UltraShort Dow30 - DXD - cls: 61.60 chg: -1.59 stop: 59.90

The DJIA gapped open lower this morning but managed a powerful rebound back into the green. The DXD, which moves twice the inverse of the DJIA, reacted by painting a big, bearish engulfing candlestick pattern (a.k.a. a failed rally). I suspect that the bounce will last a day or two. The question is will the DXD breakdown under $60.00 and dip toward its 100-dma or the August lows around $58.00. More conservative traders will want to strongly consider an early exit right here. Cut your losses and then jump back in at the 100-dma or on a bounce near $58.00. We're still in a bear market. This is just a bear market rally. Our short-term target is the $69.75-70.00 zone.

Picked on September 09 at $63.62
Change since picked: - 2.02
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 7.7 million
 

Short Play Updates

EMC Corp. - EMC - close: 13.96 change: -0.04 stop: 14.51

EMC displayed some relative weakness by closing in the red but shares still rallied sharply from their lows. Look for another failed rally in the $14.35-14.50 zone before considering new shorts. Our target is the July lows at $12.15. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $6.00 target.

Picked on September 09 at $13.67
Change since picked: + 0.29
Earnings Date 10/22/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 30.7 million

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Expeditors Intl. - EXPD - close: 35.73 chg: +0.97 stop: 36.05

Argh! We just can't win with EXPD. Transportation stocks were big winners today following sharp recoveries in the airlines and the railroads. EXPD added almost 2.8% following a dip toward $34.00 this morning. Odds look good that EXPD will hit our stop loss at $36.05 tomorrow and close this play. Our target is the $30.15 mark.

Picked on September 09 at $34.76 *re-listed
Change since picked: + 0.97
Earnings Date 11/04/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

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Expedia - EXPE - close: 17.03 change: -0.09 stop: 18.41

EXPE under performed the market on Thursday and managed to hit a new relative low before paring its losses. More conservative traders might want to use a tighter stop but you can already see that EXPE is delivering a bumpy ride. We have two targets. Our first target is $15.00. Our second target is $13.50. The Point & Figure chart is bearish and forecasts a $9.00 target.

Picked on September 10 at $16.75 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.28
Earnings Date 11/06/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.2 million

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Genuine Parts - GPC - cls: 42.39 chg: +0.26 stop: 44.01

GPC dipped lower with the markets this morning and bounced back into the green. The only thing noteworthy was that GPC's percentage gain at the end of the day lagged behind the broader market. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Watch for another failed rally near $43.00. More conservative traders might want to lower their stop loss closer to $43.00. Our target is the $38.50 mark. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower. The P&F chart is bearish with a $28 target. We don't see any significant levels of short interest.

Picked on August 31 at $42.42
Change since picked: - 0.03
Earnings Date 10/17/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million

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Holly Corp. - HOC - cls: 29.95 chg: +2.24 stop: 27.55

Bulls are trying to buy the bounce from support in the refiners. HOC soared 8% today and is trying to breakout over its 50-dma and the $30.00 level. We will consider switching to bullish plays if HOC can breakout past resistance near $32.00. Until then we're expecting the bounce to fail. Right now we are suggesting readers open bearish positions on a new low. Our trigger to open plays is $25.75. If triggered we have two targets. Our first target is $22.75. Our second target is $20.50.

Picked on September xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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Hologic Inc. - HOLX - close: 18.82 chg: +0.52 stop: 20.15

We cautioned readers yesterday to expect a bounce from the $18.00 level. More conservative traders might want to exit this trade altogether. HOLX hit our first target at $18.00 yesterday. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our second target is the $16.55 mark.

Picked on September 04 at $19.60 *1st target hit 9/10/08
Change since picked: - 0.78
Earnings Date 11/06/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.5 million

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Infosys Tech. - INFY - cls: 37.18 chg: -2.01 stop: 40.05 *new*

Bearish comments about the global economy and INFY's potential revenues from INFY's management sent the stock to a 5% loss today. We are lowering our stop loss to $40.05. We are listing two targets. Our first target is $35.05. Our second target is $33.00.

Picked on September 09 at $38.45
Change since picked: - 1.27
Earnings Date 10/09/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.0 million

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Merck - MRK - close: 33.99 change: +0.47 stop: 35.90

MRK didn't see the same gap down at the open that a lot of the market did. The stock did rebound after two days of declines. We would expect a bounce back toward the $35.00 region. We are not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. Our target is the $32.00 level. More aggressive traders may want to aim for $30.00. The P&F chart is bearish and points to a $23 target. We don't see any significant amounts of short interest.

Picked on August 31 at $35.67
Change since picked: - 1.68
Earnings Date 10/22/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 17.8 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

Rockwell Collins - COL - cls: 51.85 chg: +2.15 stop: 51.85

If you ever wondered what a whipsaw was or looked like we just experienced one in COL. Yesterday the stock plunged through support on a $1.86 drop. Today the stock erased yesterday's loss with a huge bounce. Some bullish analyst comments on COL this morning helps account for the sharp rebound. The stock hit our stop loss at $51.85.

Picked on September 10 at $49.70 /stopped out 51.85
Change since picked: + 2.15
Earnings Date 10/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million

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Stericycle - SRCL - cls: 58.85 chg: +1.41 stop: 58.51

We almost put the stop loss at $58.05 to really narrow our risk but we wanted to give SRCL room to bounce back to its 10-dma or the September 8th high. Shares soared right past both levels of potential resistance and hit our stop loss at $58.51. The stock has bounced back into its previous trading range and could easily rally towards resistance in the $61-62 zone.

Picked on September 10 at $57.44 /stopped out 58.51
Change since picked: + 1.41
Earnings Date 10/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 635 thousand
 

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