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Long Play Updates

UltraShort Dow30 - DXD - cls: 61.26 chg: -0.34 stop: 59.90

The Dow Jones Industrial Average looks like it's trying to bounce but direction next week could be determined by the financials and what happens to Dow component AIG. We're still in a bear market and the path of least resistance should be lower. The DXD moves twice the inverse of the DJIA. Look for the DXD to dip or bounce near $60.00, which can be used as a new bullish entry point. There is the possibility that the DJIA rallies higher than expected and the DXD trades near its 100-dma or "support" near $58.00. More aggressive traders might want to widen their stop loss to account for such a move. We're going to keep our stop at $59.90 for now. Our target is the $69.75-70.00 zone.

Picked on September 09 at $63.62
Change since picked: - 2.36
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 7.7 million
 

Short Play Updates

EMC Corp. - EMC - close: 14.10 change: +0.14 stop: 14.51

EMC looks like it's trying to bounce but the stock should encounter resistance near its 10-dma and 50-dma around the $14.35 region. Look for another failed rally in the $14.35-14.50 zone before considering new shorts. Our target is the July lows at $12.15. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $6.00 target.

Picked on September 09 at $13.67
Change since picked: + 0.43
Earnings Date 10/22/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 30.7 million

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Expeditors Intl. - EXPD - close: 35.41 chg: -0.32 stop: 36.05

Is the oversold bounce in EXPD finally over? As of Thursday's close it looked like shares were set to break past the $36.00 level and hit our stop loss. The overall pattern in EXPD is bearish. If the global economy is really slowing down then it could be tougher times for EXPD. The stock produced a big bearish flag pattern and broke down from it on September 4th. It then move into a smaller bear-flag like pattern but suddenly shot higher on Thursday. The bounce looks like a retracement as it prepares for the next leg lower. However, we would wait for a new move under $34.50 or under $34.00 before initiating new bearish positions. Our target is the $30.15 mark.

Picked on September 09 at $34.76 *re-listed
Change since picked: + 0.65
Earnings Date 11/04/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

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Expedia - EXPE - close: 17.02 change: -0.01 stop: 18.41

EXPE came close to new two-year lows with Friday's dip to $16.52. The stock is slowly drifting lower. The stock should be in a new down trend following the August 26th breakdown from its consolidation phase. Readers could look for another failed rally in the $17.50-18.00 zone or a new decline under $16.50 as an entry point. Right now our stop loss is just above the September 9th high. More conservative traders may want to use a tighter stop closer to $18.00. We have two targets. Our first target is $15.00. Our second target is $13.50. The Point & Figure chart is bearish and forecasts a $9.00 target.

Picked on September 10 at $16.75 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.27
Earnings Date 11/06/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.2 million

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Genuine Parts - GPC - cls: 42.19 chg: -0.20 stop: 44.01

Shares of GPC have spent the last few days consolidating sideways. The larger trend is bearish with a pattern of lower highs and failed rallies. Resistance near $44.00 looks like it has been replaced by resistance at its exponential 200-dma near $43.00. At this time we would wait for a drop under Thursday's low (41.35) or a drop under the 50-dma (41.12) before initiating new bearish positions. More conservative traders might want to lower their stop loss closer to $43.00. Our target is the $38.50 mark. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower. The P&F chart is bearish with a $28 target. We don't see any significant levels of short interest.

Picked on August 31 at $42.42
Change since picked: - 0.23
Earnings Date 10/17/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million

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Infosys Tech. - INFY - cls: 37.24 chg: +0.06 stop: 40.05

Indian software company INFY saw its shares dip to $35.74 on Friday before bouncing back to almost unchanged. This move could be the formation of a bullish double bottom along with the July lows. INFY is poised to bounce. The question is how high will it bounce. If you don't want to endure a rebound back to $40.00 then I suggest you exit early right now. Look for the next failed rally (probably near $38.00 or $40.00) as the next bearish entry point. We are listing two targets. Our first target is $35.05. Our second target is $33.00.

Picked on September 09 at $38.45
Change since picked: - 1.21
Earnings Date 10/09/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.0 million

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Merck - MRK - close: 33.82 change: -0.17 stop: 35.90

Drug giant MRK is still slowly sinking lower. We remain bearish on the stock but we're not suggesting new positions at this time. In the news on Friday, after the closing bell, it was announced that the FDA had approved MRK's Gardasil treatment for cervical cancer. We did not see any significant post-market moves in MRK share price. Our target is the $32.00 level. More aggressive traders may want to aim for $30.00. The P&F chart is bearish and points to a $23 target. We don't see any significant amounts of short interest.

Picked on August 31 at $35.67
Change since picked: - 1.85
Earnings Date 10/22/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 17.8 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

Holly Corp. - HOC - cls: 33.98 chg: +4.03 stop: 27.55

Refinery stocks soared on Friday. Shares of HOC added 13% and broke through resistance near $32.00. What makes this move so powerful is the volume behind it. Dropping supplies of gasoline inventory and the shutdowns due to hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico is lending this sector strength. Technicians will argue that the refiners have produced a bullish double bottom with the July and September lows. We don't want to chase it right here but we would keep an eye on it. Our bearish strategy was to short HOC at $25.75 but shares never hit our trigger to open positions.

Picked on September xx at $xx.xx <-- Never Opened
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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Hologic Inc. - HOLX - close: 19.81 chg: +0.99 stop: 20.15

It was a very volatile week for HOLX. One Monday the stock failed near resistance around $20.00 and by mid week the stock had sunk to $17.83. Our first target was $18.00. On Friday the stock rushed higher on rumors that HOLX was a takeover target. Shares hit an intraday high of $20.15, which was our stop loss.

Picked on September 04 at $19.60 *(stopped)1st target hit 9/10/08
Change since picked: + 0.21
Earnings Date 11/06/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.5 million
 

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