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Long Play Updates

ConocoPhillips - COP - cls: 69.32 chg: -2.96 stop: 67.39

The markets are pretty confusing these days. Crude oil soared $6.00 to over $97 a barrel today. On a normal day that would have been the headline story. Not today. It's all about AIG and the imploding financial sector. Fear is rising in the markets and the volatility index spiked to 36. Readings over 30 tend to mark a significant bottom in stocks. Investors big and small were selling anything and everything. Therein lies our concern. Large investors, like hedgefunds, are selling anything they can to raise cash. This factor has put a big bulls eye target on oil, commodities and related stocks for weeks. We thought the selling was over after the energy stocks bounced yesterday. The trading in COP looks bearish with both rally attempts sold near $72.75. Our only consolation today is the light volume in COP. Murphy's law, "if anything can go wrong, it will." could influence our trade here and COP might dip to a new relative low and then bounce sharply higher. You have to play with stops but be nimble. If COP bounces back above $70.00 again we'd consider new bullish positions. At the momentum I'm expecting a dip toward $68.00-67.50. Our target is the $78.50-80.00 zone. More aggressive traders could aim for the 200-dma or the $85.00 region.

Picked on September 16 at $72.28
Change since picked: - 2.96
Earnings Date 10/22/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 12.7 million

Short Play Updates

EMC Corp. - EMC - close: 12.84 change: -0.53 stop: 13.75 *new*

The widespread market weakness pushed the NASDAQ composite to a 4.9% loss. Shares of EMC followed with its own 3.9% decline. We are adjusting our stop loss to $13.75. The VIX is hitting bullish reversal territory so we are not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to take some money off the table right here. Our target is the July lows at $12.15. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $6.00 target.

Picked on September 09 at $13.67
Change since picked: - 0.83
Earnings Date 10/22/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 30.7 million


Expedia - EXPE - close: 15.10 change: -0.95 stop: 16.75 *new*

EXPE is quickly nearing our first target. The stock gave up 5.9% and closed at new multi-year lows. We're adjusting our stop loss to $16.75. More conservative traders may want to jump out right now to lock in profits. We're not suggesting new bearish positions. We're concerned that the VIX is forecasting a bullish reversal for the market soon. We have two targets. Our first target is $15.00. Our second target is $13.50. The Point & Figure chart is bearish and forecasts a $9.00 target. We strongly suggest readers take some money off the table near $15.00.

Picked on September 10 at $16.75 *triggered
Change since picked: - 1.65
Earnings Date 11/06/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.2 million


Infosys Tech. - INFY - cls: 34.35 chg: -2.05 stop: 37.65 *new*

Foreign markets are likely to drop again as they react to sharp decline on Wall Street today. This should lead the Indian market lower and INFY could gap down tomorrow. We are adjusting our stop loss to $37.65. We're not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. INFY has already hit our first target at $35.05. Our second target is $33.00.

Picked on September 09 at $38.45 /1st target hit 35.05 (34.19low)
Change since picked: - 4.10
Earnings Date 10/09/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.0 million

Closed Long Plays

Ultra Dow30 ProShares - DDM - cls: 52.79 chg: -4.50 stop: 53.85

Last night I stuck my neck out and suggested we had hit a bottom for the DJIA. The belief that something would get done to prevent an AIG bankruptcy and the fact that stocks were testing their summer lows in addition to a reading over 30 on the Volatility Index all suggested we had hit a bottom. Well, AIG ended up with an $85 billion loan from the government and the stock tanked anyway. The rest of the market followed. Credit markets were seizing up and money was rushing to the relatively safety of bonds. The DJIA fell another 449 points and the VIX surged to a reading over 36. The DDM collapsed and hit our stop loss at $53.85. The market will eventually bounce and the bounce will be a big one. Keep an eye on the DDM. It could be a good vehicle to capture some of that bounce.

Picked on September 16 at $57.29 /stopped out 53.85
Change since picked: - 4.50
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million


JB Hunt Transport - JBHT - close: 35.52 chg: -2.35 stop: 35.49

The relative strength in JBHT withered under a 4% sell-off in the markets and a $6.00 surge in the price of oil. JBHT slipped to $34.90 and dipped under its 100-dma. Our stop loss was hit at $35.49.

Picked on September 14 at $37.94 /stopped out 35.49
Change since picked: - 2.42
Earnings Date 10/13/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million

Closed Short Plays


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