Option Investor
Play Updates

Updates On Latest Picks

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Long Play Updates

Intel Corp. - INTC - close: 16.04 change: +0.54 stop: 11.95

Semiconductor stocks as a sector were upgraded today and that helped INTC post a 3.4% gain and close above its 10-dma. Friday's performance in INTC looked rather ominous and we were expecting a drop back toward its lows and beyond. Today's move throws something of a wrench in that plan although one could easily argue that today was nothing more than short covering again. If you want to chase this move then I would wait for INTC to trade over Friday's high (16.31). We are not going to chase it but we will alter our suggested entry point to buy the dip at $14.50-14.00 instead of $13.25. Our stop loss will stay at $11.95 for now.

Picked on October xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/14/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 74 million

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U.S. Nat.Gas - UNG - close: 30.00 chg: -0.68 stop: 28.89

Crude oil moved higher today and yet natural gas failed to keep up. Instead the UNG gapped open higher and then reversed into what is arguably a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. I would either wait for a dip back into the $29.35-29.00 zone or a move over $30.50 as my next entry point. We would expect some resistance around the $32.50 region but our target is $34.00-34.50.

Picked on October 19 at $30.68
Change since picked: - 0.68
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 8.5 million

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Ultra(long)Russ.2000 - UWM - cls: 27.19 chg: +2.16 stop: 19.45

The UWM performed even better than expected. The Russell 2000 index added 3.8%. The UWM rose more than 8.6%. Unfortunately, the ETF did not hit our entry point to get long. We were expecting a retest of the lows. I can understand wanting to buy this rally but volume for the market was pretty low, which is worrisome. If you do buy the UWM here consider a stop loss under $25.00 near today's low. We're going to wait and keep our entry point in the $20.65-20.00 zone for now. If triggered we're setting two targets. Our first target is $26.00. Our second target is $33.00. The first target could be hit in a few days. The second target might take a few weeks.

Picked on October xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 3.3 million

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Wal-Mart - WMT - close: 54.43 change: +0.66 stop: 41.95

Last week with the VIX hitting new all-time highs and stocks rolling over we were expecting the worse and suggested buying WMT near support around $44.00. That may not happen any time soon. We're going to keep our suggested entry point at $44.50 but we're also adding an alternative entry point in case WMT manages to breakout over resistance in the $55.00-200-dma area. Our alternative entry point will be to buy WMT if shares traded at $56.25. If triggered our stop loss will be $52.35. Our first target will be $59.95. Our second target will be $63.00.

Our strategy on the $44.50 entry point remains unchanged. If triggered at $44.50, then we will have two targets. Our first target is $49.50. Our second target is $54.00.

Picked on October xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/13/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 25 million
 

Short Play Updates

Citigroup - C - close: 15.09 change: +0.21 stop: 16.20

What does it tell you if the S&P 500 rallies 4.7% and C only moves 21 cents or 1.4%? Investors remain wary of the financials. If stocks keep climbing then we would expect C to follow them higher. Consider that if you're thinking about a new entry point.
Bears do have some headline risk if C suddenly comes out sharply ahead in the fight over who gets to buy Wachovia (WB) but this will remain an unknown variable for the time being. Our play could be done before we hear anything else on the WB deal. Our strategy is to short C with a target of $12.15. More aggressive traders could try to squeeze a little more out and aim for $11.50-11.00. We're suggesting a stop loss at $16.20. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at 2.4% of the float.

Picked on October 19 at $14.88
Change since picked: + 0.21
Earnings Date 10/16/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 137 million

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Wal-Mart - WMT - close: 54.43 change: +0.66 stop: 55.55

We would not open new WMT shorts at this time. While the stock under performed the market this morning WMT rebounded sharply late in the day when it became apparent that stocks were not going to deliver their usual late day sell-off. WMT remains under resistance in the $55.00-55.50/200-dma zone. However, if the market continues higher tomorrow morning we would expect this stock to hit our stop loss at $55.55. Our target is $48.00.

Picked on October 19 at $53.77
Change since picked: + 0.66
Earnings Date 11/13/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 25.5 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

Cigna - CI - close: 27.80 change: +2.58 stop: 27.05

It was a rough day for the bears. A strong open this morning fanned the flames of another low-volume short-covering rally. Shares of CI surged 10.2% and hit our stop loss at $27.05.

Picked on October 19 at $25.22 /stopped out 27.05
Change since picked: + 2.58
Earnings Date 10/30/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.8 million

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Carpenter Tech. - CRS - cls: 21.96 chg: +1.78 stop: 21.90

Monday morning's bullish open lifted CRS to gap open higher at $20.99. Shares eventually closed up with an 8.8% gain. Volume was relatively light on the rebound, which doesn't instill a lot of confidence. The stock hit our stop loss at $21.90.

Picked on October 19 at $20.99 /opened @ 20.99/listed @ 20.18
Change since picked: + 0.97 /stopped out 21.90
Earnings Date 10/28/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

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Intrepid Potash - IPI - close: 20.60 change: +2.58 stop: 20.05

When market participants saw that stocks were going to open higher the short covering began in earnest. IPI gapped open at $19.10 and rallied more than 14% to close over round-number resistance at $20.00. Our stop loss was at $20.05.

Picked on October 19 at $19.10 /opened at 19.10/listed @ 18.02
Change since picked: + 1.50 /stopped out 20.05
Earnings Date 11/11/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million
 

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