Option Investor
Play Updates

A few new stops and a couple of early exits

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BULLISH Play Updates

Greif Inc. - GEF - close: 32.52 change: -0.07 stop: 31.25

The rally in GEF has definitely stalled but thus far it looks like a normal consolidation. Shares have a short-term bullish trend of higher lows. There appears to be more risk to the upside than the downside after the stock's bullish double-bottom pattern. I would use this dip toward $32.00 as a new bullish entry point. There is potential resistance at the simple 50-dma near $35.50 but we're aiming for $39.50. The $40.00 mark looks like more significant resistance. The P&F chart is bullish with a $47.00 target.

Annotated chart:

Picked on December 16 at $34.24 
Change since picked:     - 1.72   			
Earnings Date          02/26/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       464 thousand    

Hasbro Inc. - HAS - close: 29.17 change: +0.54 stop: 27.49 *new*

HAS continues to march higher and bucked the trend on Friday with a 1.8% gain. Friday's bounce should negate Thursday's bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. We're inching up our stop loss again this time to $27.49. We're not suggesting new positions at this time but another dip and bounce from $28.00 would look like a new entry point. We have two targets. Our short-term target is $29.90. Our multi-week target is $32.25 but after looking at the Fibonacci tool we might want to move that a bit lower (see chart). FYI: A move over $30.00 would produce a brand new P&F chart buy signal.

Annotated chart:

Picked on December 06 at $28.31 /gap higher entry
Change since picked:     + 0.86 /originally listed at $27.84
Earnings Date          02/09/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.6 million     

Hansen Natural - HANS - close: 32.93 change: -0.04 stop: 29.49 *new*

The short-covering rally in HANS took a breather on Friday. Shares consolidated sideways and eventually closed almost unchanged. Last week's breakout over resistance is very bullish but we're not suggesting new positions at this time. A dip or bounce near $30.00-30.50 could be used as a new entry point. Please note that we are adjusting the stop loss to $29.49.

We have two targets. Our first target is $34.90. We are going to list a secondary target at $37.50 but strongly suggest readers take most of their money off the table at $34.90. The Point & Figure chart looks very bullish (see below) with a $45 target.

Annotated chart:

Picked on December 16 at $30.25 *triggered       
Change since picked:     + 2.68   			
Earnings Date          02/26/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.8 million     

Henry Schein - HSIC - close: 34.81 change: -0.40 stop: 33.95

Shares of HSIC were very volatile on Friday morning. The stock traded from $34.09 to $35.95 in just a few minutes. I could not find any news and wonder if it had something to do with option expiration. Shares eventually settled with a 1.1% loss. Overall I don't see any changes from our Thursday night comments. I would still buy the stock here. There is a lot to be bearish about on HSIC long-term but short-term the stock looks poised to rebound. Our target is $39.00.

Annotated chart:

Picked on December 18 at $35.21 
Change since picked:     - 0.40   			
Earnings Date          02/25/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.2 million     

Lam Research - LRCX - close: 22.06 change: +0.15 stop: 20.95 *new*

LRCX held up pretty well considering the news on Friday. The company lowered its outlook for its fourth quarter EPS to a loss of 4 to 5 cents. Analysts' estimates were already at a loss of 4 cents so the stock didn't move much after its initial morning spike.

The semiconductor stocks have been some of the best performers in December. Shares of LRCX have developed a trend of higher highs and higher lows. Except Friday's action might be considered a lower high. I think LRCX has more upside but the rally is losing steam. Shares might need to back up a bit. If you don't want to endure a dip then consider raising your stop loss toward $21.50. We are going to adjust our stop loss to $20.95. I would use a bounce from here, near $22.00, as a new bullish entry point but a bounce from $21.00 would work even better. Our target is $24.90. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. The P&F chart is bullish with a $33 target.

Annotated chart:

Picked on December 15 at $22.25 *triggered       
Change since picked:     - 0.19   			
Earnings Date          01/21/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.1 million     

N.Amer.Palladium - PAL - close: 1.63 change: +0.03 stop: 1.45

Commodity stocks are still taking their cues from the U.S. dollar. This play on PAL is a speculative bet that commodities continue to rally. Shares of PAL tested their simple 10-dma on Friday. I would buy the stock on a dip to $1.50 or a break above $1.70. This is a high-risk, speculative play. Our target is $3.00.

Annotated chart:

Picked on December 13 at $ 1.67 /gap open entry
Change since picked:     - 0.04 /originally listed at $1.54
Earnings Date          11/08/08 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       593 thousand    

RadioShack - RSH - close: 11.71 change: +0.05 stop: 10.85

The big question on Friday for retailers was how much traffic would they get this weekend, the last weekend before Christmas. The RLX retail index lost 1% as investors took some money off the table. RSH managed to out perform its peers with a 0.4% gain. The stock remains in a bullish trend of higher lows, sort of stair stepping higher. After last week's consolidation the next move should be higher. RSH has already hit our first target. Our second target is $13.75.

Annotated chart:

Picked on December 13 at $11.15 
Change since picked:     + 0.56   			
Earnings Date          02/12/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       4.3 million     

Shaw Group Inc. - SGR - close: 20.89 change: +0.85 stop: 17.95

It's been a volatile week for SGR but the trend within that volatility has been up. Traders bought the dip on Friday near SGR's 10-dma and the stock closed the session up 4.2%. We're going to leave our stop loss at $17.95 but more conservative traders may want to adjust theirs higher. I would use Friday's bounce as another entry point to get long the stock.

We have two targets. Our first target is $24.00. Our secondary target is $27.00 but we suggest readers take off most of their positions at $24.00.

Annotated chart:

Picked on December 16 at $19.54 /gap down entry
Change since picked:     + 1.35 /originally listed at $19.74
Earnings Date          01/07/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.6 million     

BEARISH Play Updates

*We currently do not have any bearish play updates*


Juniper Networks - JNPR - close: 16.86 change: -0.23 stop: 16.75

We are suggesting an early exit in JNPR. The stock has been able to hold on to a bullish pattern of higher lows but I believe JNPR will break that trend soon. Short-term the next move looks like it will be down but I'm not bearish enough on JNPR to short it. Keep the stock on your watch list to see where it finds support.


Picked on December 13 at $17.46 /early exit 16.86
Change since picked:     - 0.60   			
Earnings Date          01/22/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:      10.1 million     

Raytheon - RTN - close: 49.63 change: -0.57 stop: 49.45

RTN is losing too much steam. The stock has put in a new lower high and looks like it could breakdown under $49.00 soon. The intraday low on Friday was $49.51 so we have not been stopped out yet. I'm suggesting readers abandon this play before it gets worse.


Picked on December 06 at $50.48 /gap higher entry
Change since picked:     - 0.85 /originally listed at $49.55
Earnings Date          01/29/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       4.4 million     

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