BULLISH Play Updates

Andersons Inc. - ANDE - close: 30.23 change: +0.28 stop: 27.59

After churning sideways almost all day ANDE managed a late-day push to close just above round-number resistance at $30.00. I don't see any changes from my previous comments and would still open bullish positions here. Our first target is $34.00. My time frame is less than four weeks.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      June 25 at $29.95 
Change since picked:     + 0.28   			
Earnings Date          08/06/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       379 thousand
Listed on  June 25, 2009    


A.O.Smith Corp. - AOS - close: 32.24 change: -0.15 stop: 29.75

AOS held up pretty well on Friday. The stock traded sideways in a narrow range and still looks poised to breakout over resistance this week. If you're looking for an entry point I would either wait for a rally past $32.50 or a dip back toward $31.00. We're keeping our stop loss under $30.00 for now but more conservative traders may want to raise their stop toward the 50-dma. Our first target is $34.95. Our second target is $37.00.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      June 23 at $30.25 *triggered       
Change since picked:     + 1.99   			
Earnings Date          07/16/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       195 thousand
Listed on  June 20, 2009    


Bank of America - BAC - close: 12.75 change: +0.40 stop: 11.85

BAC continues to hold up pretty well. The market has absorbed a lot more shares in recent days and the company has raised almost $38 billion in capital since the stress tests. The bullish trend of higher lows is very much in place. My biggest concern right now is the simple 200-dma. When we started this play the 200-dma was around $16.30. Now the 200-dma, which is normally technical resistance (or support), has fallen to $13.73. Can bulls push BAC through resistance at its simple and then later on its exponential 200-dma? Honestly, I don't know. The trend is up and there have been plenty of opportunities for investors to sell this stock and they haven't. I remain optimistic but I hesitate to open new positions unless you can get in on a dip near support at $12.00.

I am adjusting our first target to $14.50, which is where we want to sell 50% to 75% of our position. Our second target is $16.45. Bear in mind that we probably want to exit ahead of the late July earnings report so those target look optimistic. Speaking of targets the Point & Figure chart is very bullish with a $31 target.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      June 04 at $12.24 /gap higher entry
                              /listed at $11.87
Change since picked:     + 0.51   			
Earnings Date          07/20/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       537 million 
Listed on   May 19, 2009    


Bank of Montreal - BMO - close: 42.50 change: +1.12 stop: 38.85

I don't see any changes from my Thursday night comments. BMO continues to show relative strength and the stock broke out to new eight-month highs on Friday. If you don't want to chase this move then look for a dip back toward $41.00 as your entry point. Our first target to take profits is $44.90. Our second target is $48.00. This could take six to eight weeks.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      June 25 at $41.38 
Change since picked:     + 1.12   			
Earnings Date          08/25/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       729 thousand
Listed on  June 25, 2009    


Bally Tech. - BYI - close: 30.48 change: +0.48 stop: 27.45

BYI has finally broken out over resistance at the $30.00 level. Shares have hit our trigger to buy the stock at $30.10 so the play is open. The MACD has also produced a new buy signal on the daily chart. Broken resistance at $29.00 and at $30.00 should offer new support. I would still consider new positions now. Our first target is $32.90. Our second target is $34.90. My time frame is six to eight weeks.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      June 26 at $30.10 *triggered       
Change since picked:     + 0.38   			
Earnings Date          08/19/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       859 thousand
Listed on  June 24, 2009    


Dell Inc. - DELL - close: 13.68 change: +0.03 stop: 12.45 *new*

Shares of DELL lagged behind the rest of the tech sector on Friday but overall the trend is still very much up. The MACD on the daily chart turned positive again last week. The $14.00 level might offer some resistance so readers might want to wait for a dip back toward $13.00 before opening new positions. I'm raising our stop loss to $12.45. Our first target is $14.90. I'm adding a second target at $15.95 but we want to take most of our money off the table at $14.90. My time frame is about eight weeks. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $20 target but it's also showing potential resistance near $14.50. More conservative traders may want to start taking profits near $14.50.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      June 09 at $12.55 
Change since picked:     + 1.13   			
Earnings Date          08/27/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        29 million 
Listed on  June 06, 2009    


3x Energy Bear ETF- ERY - close: 22.69 change: +0.57 stop: 19.95

Next week could be interesting for oil and oil stocks. Crude oil has bounced from its lows but it still has a new trend of lower highs. Meanwhile the oil sector, which sold off hard in mid June, has begun an oversold bounce but is it just a bounce or something more? Shares of ERY, the triple leveraged oils sector ETF, spend the week consolidation along its 50-dma and digesting some of its early mid June gains. I remain bullish here but would probably wait for a dip near $21.00 or $2.00 before considering new positions.

ERY has already hit our first target at $24.00. Our second target to exit completely is $27.50. More aggressive traders may want to aim for the $30.00 region.

This is a VERY volatile triple-leveraged ETF that moves higher as oil stocks move lower. The ERY moves based on the Russell 1000 Energy index. This is a very aggressive trade. I'm suggesting readers trade smaller than normal position sizes.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      June 16 at $20.10 /gap higher entry
                              /originally listed t $19.68
Change since picked:     + 2.59
                              /1st target hit @ 24.00 (+19.4%)
Earnings Date          00/00/00 
Average Daily Volume:       2.7 million 
Listed on  June 16, 2009    


Joy Global - JOYG - close: 36.55 change: -0.17 stop: 28.70

We may need to adjust our entry point on JOYG. Here's what to watch. The U.S. dollar is beginning to breakdown again. That should lift commodities including copper. JOYG is a mining equipment maker so its stock tends to trade with the miners, which follow the price of copper and gold. Last week's bounce in JOYG at $33.00 and its exponential 200-dma looks like a short-term bottom yet I'm unwilling to chase JOYG given some of its weak technicals. For now the plan is to buy JOYG at $31.00. That may be wishful thinking. If we see another bounce near $33.00 we might want to jump on it. More aggressive traders may want to take a different approach and buy a breakout over $38.00 but you'll need to raise your stop loss significantly.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      June xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER  
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          09/03/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       5.3 million 
Listed on  June 23, 2009    


Morgan Stanley - MS - close: 28.62 change: +0.75 stop: 26.95

A last hour push on Friday was enough to lift MS above resistance near $28.50 and hit our trigger at $28.60. Technicals are turning positive again with the four-day bounce from its exponential 200-dma. Our first target is $31.75. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $46 target.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      June 26 at $28.60 *triggered       
Change since picked:     + 0.02   			
Earnings Date          07/22/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:      29.4 million 
Listed on  June 23, 2009    


Pharma Prod. Dev. - PPDI - close: 23.32 chg: +0.05 stop: 21.95 *new*

The rally in drugs and biotech is still in progress it just stalled a bit last week. Shares of PPDI began to rebound again on Thursday and look poised to hit new relative highs soon. I'm raising our stop loss just a bit to $21.95. More conservative traders may want to consider a stop closer to $22.25. Our first target is $25.90 (or its 200-dma). FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $31.00 target.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      June 18 at $23.38 /gap higher entry
                              /originally listed at $23.05
Change since picked:     - 0.06   			
Earnings Date          07/21/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.5 million 
Listed on  June 18, 2009    


Western Digital - WDC - close: 26.75 chg: +1.17 stop: 23.95

Investors seem to be getting excited about tech stocks again. The DDX hard-drive index gained 2.1% and is rising toward its June highs. WDC soared 4.5% and broke out over resistance at $26.00 and hit levels not seen since September 2008. Friday's bullish breakout looks pretty strong. If you missed the entry point on Thursday you got another chance Friday. At this point I'd wait for a dip toward $26.00 as an entry point. Our first target is $29.75.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      June 25 at $26.10 *triggered       
Change since picked:     + 0.65   			
Earnings Date          07/23/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       4.6 million 
Listed on  June 24, 2009    


Wellpoint Inc. - WLP - close: 51.34 change: +0.61 stop: 47.85 *new*

Now that the breakout over resistance has retested it as support WLP's bounce looks even more inviting. Readers may not want to chase it though. Instead consider buying dips near the rising 10-dma. I'm raising the stop loss to $47.85. Our first target is $54.00. Our second target is $57.40.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      June 22 at $49.25 *triggered       
Change since picked:     + 2.09   			
Earnings Date          07/29/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       4.4 million 
Listed on  June 20, 2009    


Dentsply Intl. - XRAY - close: 30.93 change: +0.06 stop: 28.95

Excellent! XRAY provided traders a dip near $30.50 on Friday morning and bulls quickly jumped in. XRAY still looks poised to hit new relative highs this week. I don't see any changes from my Thursday night comments. The MACD indicator has produced a new buy signal. The Point & Figure chart is very bullish with a $47 target. I am suggesting bullish positions now. Our first target to take profits is $33.90.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      June 25 at $30.87 
Change since picked:     + 0.06   			
Earnings Date          07/29/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.0 million 
Listed on  June 25, 2009    


BEARISH Play Updates

DuPont - DD - close: 25.38 change: +0.09 stop: 27.05

DD sold off hard in June and broke down into a new bearish trend. Last week saw an oversold bounce from the $24.00 level. The bounce may not be over yet. I see potential resistance at $25.65 and again near $26.90-27.00. I would look for a failed rally near $26.00 as a new bearish entry point. Our first target $22.25. Our second target is $20.25.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      June 16 at $25.20 
Change since picked:     + 0.18   			
Earnings Date          07/21/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       9.1 million 
Listed on  June 16, 2009    


iShares Mexico - EWW - close: 36.86 change: +0.23 stop: 38.05 *new*

The bounce in the Mexico ETF has been impressive with a rally from $34.11 to almost $37.00. The rebound has cleared all of its significant moving averages and short-term technicals are starting to turn bullish again. Currently the EWW is resting under resistance near $37.00. It has much stronger resistance at $38.00. I'm going to take a larger risk here and raise the stop loss to $38.05. More conservative traders want to stay very defensive and consider an early exit instead. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time but a failed rally at $37.00 or $38.00 could be used as a new entry point. Our target is $30.25.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      June 22 at $34.92 
Change since picked:     + 1.94   			
Earnings Date          00/00/00 
Average Daily Volume:       3.9 million 
Listed on  June 22, 2009    


Gamestop - GME - close: 22.17 change: -0.04 stop: 25.05

GME is not seeing much follow through on its bounce from the $20.50 level last week. This is good news for the bears but I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders might want to consider a stop loss near $24.50ish. The stock has already hit our first target at $22.05. Our second target to take profits is $20.25. Our third target is $18.15.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      June 02 at $24.32 
Change since picked:     - 2.15
                              /1st target hit @ 22.05 (-9.3%)
Earnings Date          08/20/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       6.3 million 
Listed on  June 02, 2009    


Gen-Probe - GPRO - close: 43.84 change: +0.20 stop: 44.05

GPRO is still testing resistance and so far the $44.00 level is holding. If there is any follow through on Monday we're in danger of being stopped out. More aggressive traders may want to widen their stop just a little bit to give GPRO a little bit of room. However, the $44.00 level should be strengthen by its 50-dma and 200-dma both nearing the $44.00 mark. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time but more nimble traders can look for a failed rally to open positions. A drop under $43.00 or maybe $42.80 could work. Our first target is $38.05. Our second target is $35.25.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      June 23 at $42.03 /gap higher entry
                             /originally listed at $41.64
Change since picked:     + 1.81   			
Earnings Date          07/30/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       449 thousand
Listed on  June 23, 2009    


iShares Materials - MXI - close: 46.73 change: -0.17 stop: 48.25 *new*

I was expecting the oversold bounce in the MXI to continue on Friday but it's starting to stall. I don't see any changes from my Thursday comments other than a new stop. I'm lowering the stop loss to $48.25. Wait and watch for a failed rally under $48.00 as a new entry point. MXI has already hit our first target at $44.00. Our second target is $41.00.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      June 16 at $47.55 
Change since picked:     - 0.82
                              /1st target hit 44.00 (-7.4%)
Earnings Date          00/00/00 
Average Daily Volume:       170 thousand
Listed on  June 16, 2009    


Pulte Homes - PHM - close: 8.76 change: -0.20 stop: 9.35

The homebuilders couldn't build on their midweek bounce. An improvement for new orders for Lennar (LEN) did not show up for rival KB Home (KBH). KBH reported earnings on Friday and the results were worse than expected and orders actually fell. Shares of PHM lost 2.2% and failed near the top of its trading range. More conservative traders may want to ratchet down their stops near $9.00 to 9.11. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target to exit is $7.25. More conservative traders may want to exit at $7.80 instead.

Annotated chart:

Entry on       May 20 at $ 9.38 /gap down entry
                              /originally listed at $9.52
Change since picked:     - 0.62   			
Earnings Date          07/22/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        11 million 
Listed on   May 20, 2009    


Raytheon - RTN - close: 44.50 change: -0.62 stop: 46.55

The bounce in RTN is already fading. Shares rolled over under $45.00 and its 50-dma. This can be used as a new bearish entry point. Should the stock surprise us and move higher look for a failed rally near $46.00 as an entry point. I do see some support near $42.00 but our first target is $40.25. The P&F chart is very bearish with a $13 target.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      June 24 at $44.22 
Change since picked:     + 0.28   			
Earnings Date          07/23/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.5 million 
Listed on  June 24, 2009    


Homebuilders ETF - XHB - close: 11.76 change: -0.15 stop: 12.55

The oversold bounce in the XHB is stalling under $12.00, which is exactly what we wanted to see. More conservative traders may want to lower their stops toward the $12.00 level. More aggressive traders may want to open new positions now.

Our target is $10.10. I am tempted to set a longer-term target in the $9.00-8.00 region.

Annotated chart:

Entry on       May 23 at $11.96 
Change since picked:     - 0.20   			
Earnings Date          00/00/00
Average Daily Volume:        10 million 
Listed on   May 23, 2009