BULLISH Play Updates

Dell Inc. - DELL - close: 12.95 change: -0.05 stop: 12.75

DELL slipped to its exponential 200-dma but managed to bounce from $12.76. That's right - one cent above our stop loss. If the market bounces tomorrow readers may want to start taking profits if DELL reaches the $13.50-14.00 zone again. I'm not suggesting new positions in DELL.

Entry on      June 09 at $12.55 
Change since picked:     + 0.40   			
Earnings Date          08/27/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        29 million 
Listed on  June 06, 2009    


3x Energy Bear ETF - ERY - close: 27.35 change: +0.06 stop: 22.40 *new8*

Hmmm... could this be a short-term top for the ERY? Crude oil sank to new multi-week lows, down about 17% from its recent highs. Yet oil stocks bounced from their intraday lows and the oil service stocks actually closed in positive territory. This could be a warning sign for energy sector bears. If you haven't taken any profits yet I suggest you do so now.

I am not suggesting new positions. Yesterday we moved the stop loss to $22.40. More conservative traders may want to move their stop to breakeven at $23.30. ERY has exceeded our first target at $27.40. Our second target is $29.90.

This is a very volatile (triple-leveraged) ETF so we're using a wide stop loss and I'm suggesting readers only trade half (or less) their normal position size.

Entry on      July 02 at $23.30 *triggered       
Change since picked:     + 4.05
                              /1st target hit @ 27.40 (+17.5%)
Earnings Date          00/00/00 
Average Daily Volume:       4.0 million 
Listed on  July 01, 2009    


MEDNAX Inc. - MD - close: 43.46 change: -0.94 stop: 41.40

MD hit some profit taking but the trend is still higher. I am not suggesting new bullish positions. Our first target is $47.40.

Entry on      July 01 at $43.01 *triggered       
Change since picked:     + 0.45   			
Earnings Date          08/03/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       367 thousand
Listed on  June 30, 2009    


Morgan Stanley - MS - close: 25.50 change: -0.65 stop: 24.49

Our new entry point on MS has been hit. Financials were showing relative weakness earlier today and MS dipped to $24.85 before paring its losses. The $25.00 level is round-number support that is bolstered by technical support at its rising 100-dma and the bottom of MS' bullish channel. We had a trigger to buy MS at $25.25.

Our first target is $27.75. Our second target is $29.75. We don't want to hold over the late July earnings so the play may close early.

FYI: It's important to note that Goldman Sachs (GS) reports earnings on the morning of July 14th. GS' earnings report and their comments could have a big impact on shares of MS.

chart:

--New Trade, buy dip @ 25.25 --
Entry on      July 08 at $25.25 *triggered       
Change since picked:     + 0.25   			
Earnings Date          07/22/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:      29.4 million 
Listed on  June 23, 2009    


Western Digital - WDC - close: 25.15 chg: +0.16 stop: 24.45

Right on cue WDC tested technical support at its 40-dma and bounce. Now the bounce wasn't very impressive but it was moving higher into the closing bell. I wrote last night that a bounce from $24.70 would be a tempting entry point to buy WDC. The low today was $24.68. Our first target is $29.75.

Entry on      June 25 at $26.10 *triggered       
Change since picked:     - 0.95   			
Earnings Date          07/23/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       4.6 million 
Listed on  June 24, 2009    


Wellpoint Inc. - WLP - close: 50.28 change: -0.93 stop: 48.75

WLP has failed at $52.00 again but traders bought the dip at $49.26 this morning. The larger trend remains up. Readers can buy this bounce off the lows but consider inching your stop toward $49.00 or $49.25. Our first target is $54.00. Our second target is $57.40.

Entry on      June 22 at $49.25 *triggered       
Change since picked:     + 1.03   			
Earnings Date          07/29/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       4.4 million 
Listed on  June 20, 2009    


BEARISH Play Updates

Broadcom - BRCM - close: 23.35 change: -0.24 stop: 25.45

BRCM garnered some positive analyst comments today but it failed to have much impact on the stock price. Readers might want to wait for a bounce and failed rally near $24.50-25.00 as a new entry point. There is potential support near $22.00 so we're setting our first target at $22.05. Our second target is $20.25. We do not want to hold over the July 23rd earnings report.

Entry on      July 07 at $23.59 
Change since picked:     - 0.24   			
Earnings Date          07/23/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       9.8 million 
Listed on  July 07, 2009    


Carpenter Tech. - CRS - close: 17.18 chg: -0.76 stop: 20.25

CRS almost hit our second target today. The intraday low was $16.53. Traders may wan to go ahead and take profits now anyway. I'm not suggesting new positions. Our first target to take profits was $18.05. Our second target is $16.25.

Entry on      July 04 at $19.62 /gap down entry
                              /originally listed at $20.06
Change since picked:     - 2.44   		
                              /1st target hit @ 18.05 (-8.0%)
Earnings Date          07/28/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       586 thousand
Listed on  July 04, 2009    


DuPont - DD - close: 24.18 change: +0.14 stop: 27.05

DD is still clinging to support near $24.00. The fact that shares did not break this level during the market's sell-off this morning is bullish and should make the bears a little nervous. Overall the trend is still bearish.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time. I repeat my previous comments that more conservative traders may want to lower their stops to just above new resistance near $26.25. I'm leaving the stop above the 200-dma near $27.00. Our first target $22.25. Our second target is $20.25.

Entry on      June 16 at $25.20 
Change since picked:     - 1.02   			
Earnings Date          07/21/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       9.1 million 
Listed on  June 16, 2009    


iShares Mexico - EWW - close: 34.45 change: -0.62 stop: 38.05

EWW has slipped toward short-term support near $34.00. I would not be surprised to see another bounce toward $36.00 before this ETF moves lower. What is interesting was the big volume today.

More conservative traders can lower their stop toward last Wednesday's high of $37.61. Our target is $30.25. My time frame is probably another four to six weeks.

Entry on      June 22 at $34.92 
Change since picked:     - 0.47   			
Earnings Date          00/00/00 
Average Daily Volume:       3.9 million 
Listed on  June 22, 2009    


Fastenal Co. - FAST - close: 31.14 change: +0.58 stop: 34.05

FAST managed a little oversold bounce today. Look for over resistance in the $32-33 zone. Our first target is $30.15. Our second target is $28.05.

Entry on      July 04 at $31.90 
Change since picked:     - 0.76   			
Earnings Date          07/13/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.8 million 
Listed on  July 04, 2009    


Gamestop - GME - close: 20.94 change: +0.48 stop: 23.25

GME summoned up an oversold bounce after hitting our second target at $20.25 this morning. I am not suggesting new positions at this time but a failed rally under $22.00 could work as another entry point.

GME has now hit our first target at $22.05 and our second target at $20.25. We are now aiming for our third and final target at $18.15.

chart:

Entry on      June 02 at $24.32 
Change since picked:     - 3.32
                              /1st target hit @ 22.05 (-9.3%)
Earnings Date          08/20/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       6.3 million 
Listed on  June 02, 2009    


Gen-Probe - GPRO - close: 39.80 change: -0.85 stop: 44.05

GPRO continues to break support this time at the $40.00 mark. I don't see any changes from my prior comments. Our first target is $38.05. Our second target is $35.25. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish with a $32.00 target.

Entry on      June 23 at $42.03 /gap higher entry
                             /originally listed at $41.64
Change since picked:     - 2.23   			
Earnings Date          07/30/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       449 thousand
Listed on  June 23, 2009    


Liberty Global - LBTYA - close: 14.64 change: -0.26 stop: 16.20

LBTYA lost another 1.7% and closed under its 30 and 40-dma. Volume was a little bit above average, which is good news for the bears. I see no changes from my previous comments. I'm suggesting bearish positions now or on a bounce toward $15.50. Our first target is $12.25. We may want to consider a second target near $10.00. The P&F chart is bearish with a $10.50 target. P>

Entry on      July 07 at $14.90 
Change since picked:     - 0.26   			
Earnings Date          08/08/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.5 million 
Listed on  July 07, 2009    


iShares Materials - MXI - close: 43.17 change: -0.30 stop: 47.50 *new*

MXI dipped to $42.00 this morning but managed a decent bounce off its lows. It's possible this is a short-term bottom. The MXI is a little oversold here. Traders may want to consider taking profits now and exiting early. I am lowering our stop loss to $47.50. We're not suggesting new positions. MXI has exceeded our first target at $44.00 and we're currently aiming for $41.25. P>

Entry on      June 16 at $47.55 
Change since picked:     - 4.38
                              /1st target hit 44.00 (-7.4%)
Earnings Date          00/00/00 
Average Daily Volume:       170 thousand
Listed on  June 16, 2009    


PACCAR Inc. - PCAR - close: 29.13 change: -0.57 stop: 31.05

Our new play on PCAR has been triggered at $28.90. Volume was very strong on today's breakdown. Our first target is $25.25. Our second target is $22.65. We don't want to hold over earnings.

chart:

Entry on      July 08 at $28.90 *triggered       
Change since picked:     + 0.23   			
Earnings Date          07/21/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       4.1 million 
Listed on  July 07, 2009    


Raytheon - RTN - close: 42.17 change: +0.09 stop: 45.75

It was a quiet session for RTN. My only concern was the lack of participation in the market's sell-off this morning. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Our first target is $40.25. The P&F chart is very bearish with a $13 target.

Entry on      June 24 at $44.22 
Change since picked:     - 2.05  			
Earnings Date          07/23/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.5 million 
Listed on  June 24, 2009    


Steel Index - SLX - close: 37.85 change: -0.55 stop: 44.05

The SLX dipped to $36.55 but rebounded off its lows. I'm sticking with the plan to short SLX on a bounce in the $41.50-42.50 zone. Our first target is $35.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $30.00 target.

Entry on      July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER  
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          07/23/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       297 thousand
Listed on  July 06, 2009    


Homebuilders ETF - XHB - close: 10.73 change: -0.13 stop: 12.55

The XHB hit new relative lows today. Our target is $10.10. I am setting a secondary target at $9.10 but I strongly suggest readers take some money off the table at $10.10.

Entry on       May 23 at $11.96 
Change since picked:     - 1.23   			
Earnings Date          00/00/00
Average Daily Volume:        10 million 
Listed on   May 23, 2009    


S&P Retail SPDRs - XRT - close: 26.61 change: +0.54 stop: 28.45

The XRT delivered a bounce thanks to strength in Wal-Mart (WMT) and a strong performance form the $1.00-type of stores. If the XRT is going to bounce then we want to wait and open new positions in the $27.50-28.00 zone. Otherwise look for a new drop under $25.90 to open bearish plays. Our target is the $22.25 mark. This could be a volatile ETF as we move through the earnings season. My time frame is about six weeks.

FYI: The retail sector could see some volatility tomorrow as investors react to the monthly same-store sales numbers. P>

Entry on      July 07 at $26.07 
Change since picked:     + 0.54   			
Earnings Date          00/00/00 
Average Daily Volume:        19 million 
Listed on  July 07, 2009    


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

A.O.Smith Corp. - AOS - close: 31.86 change: -0.32 stop: 31.75

We raised our stop loss on AOS yesterday on concerns the S&P 500 would breakdown. Sure enough the market did breakdown and AOS hit our stop closing the play.

chart:

Entry on      June 23 at $30.25 *triggered       
Change since picked:     + 1.50<-- stopped @ 31.75 (+4.9%)
Earnings Date          07/17/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       195 thousand
Listed on  June 20, 2009    


Bank of Montreal - BMO - close: 39.30 change: -1.23 stop: 39.90

Financials helped lead the market lower on Wednesday and BMO broke down under the $40.00 level stopping us out. Shares dipped to their 50-dma before finding any support.

chart:

Entry on      June 25 at $41.38 
Change since picked:     - 1.48<-- stopped out @ 39.90 (-3.5%)
Earnings Date          08/25/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       729 thousand
Listed on  June 25, 2009    


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

McDermott Intl. - MDR - close: 16.65 change: -0.79 stop: 21.25

MDR hit both our downside targets in one day. Shares fell to $16.04 this morning. We had a target to take profits at $17.25 and then planned to exit completely at $16.05. MDR looks very oversold here so I'd be super careful if you did not exit.

chart:

Entry on      July 04 at $18.83 /gap down entry
                              /originally listed at $19.34
Change since picked:     - 2.18   	
                             /1st target hit @ 17.25 (-8.3%)
                             /2nd target hit @ 16.05 (-14.7%)
Earnings Date          08/11/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.2 million 
Listed on  July 04, 2009