BULLISH Play Updates

Dell Inc. - DELL - close: 13.22 change: +0.07 stop: 12.75

Goldman Sachs made headlines when it upgraded their view of the hardware sector. Shares of DELL rallied to $13.50 first thing this morning. I have been suggesting that readers take profits in DELL if the stock nears $13.50. The larger trend for DELL is still bullish but should the market breakdown, and I think it might, odds are DELL will break its bullish trend of higher lows. Last week's low was $12.76 so I'm leaving our stop loss at $12.75. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. I would officially exit on another rally to $13.90.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      June 09 at $12.55 
Change since picked:     + 0.67   			
Earnings Date          08/27/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        29 million 
Listed on  June 06, 2009    


Double-Long Oil ETN - DXO - close: 3.48 change: -0.12 stop: 3.28 *new*

Crude oil extended its losses on Friday and the DXO gapped open lower at $3.48 and spent the rest of the day churning sideways. Oil and the DXO are still oversold and due for a bounce but I would wait for some sign of strength before launching new positions. At this time wait for a new move over $3.60 (new trigger 3.61) before buying the DXO. An alternative entry point would be a bounce from the rising 100-dma near $3.30.

Since the DXO gapped open lower I'm adjusting our stop loss to $3.28. Our first target is $3.90. Our second target is $4.20. We want to exit the majority of our position at the first target. FYI: Keep an eye on the U.S. dollar. A weak dollar should boost oil prices.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July 09 at $ 3.48 /gap down entry
                              /originally listed at $3.60
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          00/00/00 
Average Daily Volume:      12.4 million 
Listed on  July 09, 2009    


3x Energy Bear ETF - ERY - close: 27.24 change: +0.59 stop: 23.30 *new*

As oil continues to slide the oil stocks reversed after Thursday's unusual bounce. This gave the ERY a 2.2% pop on Friday. Oil is short-term oversold and if it does rebound energy stocks could follow, which would be bearish for our ERY play. If you haven't taken any profits yet I suggest you do so now.

I am not suggesting new positions. I am moving our stop loss to $23.30. ERY has exceeded our first target at $27.40. Our second target is $29.90.

This is a very volatile (triple-leveraged) ETF so we're using a wide stop loss and I'm suggesting readers only trade half (or less) their normal position size.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July 02 at $23.30 *triggered       
Change since picked:     + 3.94
                              /1st target hit @ 27.40 (+17.5%)
Earnings Date          00/00/00 
Average Daily Volume:       4.0 million 
Listed on  July 01, 2009    


MEDNAX Inc. - MD - close: 42.29 change: -1.29 stop: 41.40

Traders need to turn more cautious on MD. The three-day pull back is starting to look like the second peak in a bearish double top pattern and I'm seeing a bearish divergence between price and the MACD indicator. More conservative traders might want to raise their stop closer to $42.00. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Our first target is $47.40.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July 01 at $43.01 *triggered       
Change since picked:     - 0.72   			
Earnings Date          08/03/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       367 thousand
Listed on  June 30, 2009    


Morgan Stanley - MS - close: 25.94 change: +0.06 stop: 24.49

This week could be exciting. Larger rival Goldman Sachs (GS) is due to report earnings on Tuesday morning (July 14th). GS' earnings report and their guidance will have a big influence on MS. I am still suggesting bullish positions near $25.00 but more conservative traders might want to raise their stops toward $25.00 or the Wednesday low of $24.85.

Our first target is $27.75. Our second target is $29.75. We don't want to hold over the late July earnings so the play may close early.

Annotated chart:

--New Trade, buy dip @ 25.25 --
Entry on      July 08 at $25.25 *triggered       
Change since picked:     + 0.69   			
Earnings Date          07/22/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:      29.4 million 
Listed on  June 23, 2009    


Western Digital - WDC - close: 25.68 chg: +0.53 stop: 24.60 *new*

The NASDAQ has broken its trend of higher lows but WDC has not. This stock is still honoring its up trend for now but should the major indices continue to break down we have to expect WDC will be affected. Last week's low was $24.68. I am raising our stop loss to $24.60. Our first target is $29.75.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      June 25 at $26.10 *triggered       
Change since picked:     - 0.42   			
Earnings Date          07/23/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       4.6 million 
Listed on  June 24, 2009    


Wellpoint Inc. - WLP - close: 49.81 change: -0.37 stop: 48.75

WLP is slipping near the bottom of its new trading range and momentum is fading. I'm not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. Our first target is $54.00. Our second target is $57.40.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      June 22 at $49.25 *triggered       
Change since picked:     + 0.56   			
Earnings Date          07/29/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       4.4 million 
Listed on  June 20, 2009    


BEARISH Play Updates

Broadcom - BRCM - close: 24.28 change: -0.03 stop: 25.51 *new*

In spite of some positive analyst comments recently BRCM's bounce has not broken the new bearish trend of lower highs. I am still suggesting bearish positions now although traders may want to consider a tighter stop loss closer to $25.00. I'm making a minor adjustment to our stop and placing it at $25.51. There is potential support near $22.00 so we're setting our first target at $22.05. Our second target is $20.25. We do not want to hold over the July 23rd earnings report.

FYI: News surfaced on Friday that BRCM had dropped its hostile takeover bid for Emulex (ELX).

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July 07 at $23.59 
Change since picked:     + 0.69   			
Earnings Date          07/23/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       9.8 million 
Listed on  July 07, 2009    


Carpenter Tech. - CRS - close: 16.87 chg: -0.21 stop: 18.55 *new*

CRS has found support near $16.50 for the second time in three days. I am officially upping our second target and exit point to $16.55. I would reconsider new bearish positions on a failed rally near $18.50. Please note our new stop loss at $18.55.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July 04 at $19.62 /gap down entry
                              /originally listed at $20.06
Change since picked:     - 2.75   		
                              /1st target hit @ 18.05 (-8.0%)
Earnings Date          07/28/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       586 thousand
Listed on  July 04, 2009    


DuPont - DD - close: 24.61 change: +0.11 stop: 26.51 *new*

DD is still trying to bounce from short-term support at $24.00. I am not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. We are lowering the stop loss to $26.51, which is just above the simple 200-dma. Our first target $22.25. Our second target is $20.25. Don't forget that we plan to exit ahead of the earnings report.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      June 16 at $25.20 
Change since picked:     - 0.59   			
Earnings Date          07/21/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       9.1 million 
Listed on  June 16, 2009    


iShares Mexico - EWW - close: 34.53 change: -0.35 stop: 38.05

The Mexico ETF is still testing support near $34.00. Wait for another failed rally near $36.00 before considering new bearish positions.

Our target is $30.25. My time frame is probably another four to six weeks.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      June 22 at $34.92 
Change since picked:     - 0.39   			
Earnings Date          00/00/00 
Average Daily Volume:       3.9 million 
Listed on  June 22, 2009    


Gamestop - GME - close: 20.44 change: -0.25 stop: 22.85 *new*

GME is still drifting lower and should be ready to breakdown under support at $20.00 soon. However, I am not suggesting new positions at this time but a failed rally under $22.00 could work as another entry point. I am lowering the stop loss to $22.85.

GME has now hit our first target at $22.05 and our second target at $20.25. We are now aiming for our third and final target at $18.15.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      June 02 at $24.32 
Change since picked:     - 3.82
                              /1st target hit @ 22.05 (-9.3%)
Earnings Date          08/20/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       6.3 million 
Listed on  June 02, 2009    


Gen-Probe - GPRO - close: 39.34 change: -0.54 stop: 43.55 *new*

GPRO is sinking to new relative lows and shares might actually look a little short-term oversold. We are lowering the stop loss to $43.55, just above the 200-dma. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Our first target is $38.05. Our second target is $35.25. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish with a $32.00 target.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      June 23 at $42.03 /gap higher entry
                             /originally listed at $41.64
Change since picked:     - 2.69   			
Earnings Date          07/30/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       449 thousand
Listed on  June 23, 2009    


Intl. Speedway - ISCA - close: 24.09 chg: -0.11 stop: 27.05

Nothing has changed for our ISCA play. The stock continues to look bearish with Wednesday's breakdown. I would look for bounces of failed rallies near $25.00 as entry points.

I'm suggesting a stop loss at $27.05 but more conservative traders may want to try a stop closer to $26.00. Our first target is $22.10. Our second target is $20.25. My time frame is six to eight weeks.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July 09 at $24.75 *triggered       
Change since picked:     - 0.55   			
Earnings Date          07/07/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       342 thousand
Listed on  July 08, 2009    


Liberty Global - LBTYA - close: 15.25 change: -0.09 stop: 16.20

LBTYA is still consolidating under technical resistance at its 200-dma. This looks like another entry point for bearish positions. Our first target is $12.25. We may want to consider a second target near $10.00. The P&F chart is bearish with a $10.50 target.

Annotated chart:
P>

Entry on      July 07 at $14.90 
Change since picked:     + 0.35   			
Earnings Date          08/08/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.5 million 
Listed on  July 07, 2009    


iShares Materials - MXI - close: 43.34 change: -0.52 stop: 47.50

The bounce in the MXI is already fading but this sector could start to see even more volatility as earnings come out. I'm not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. MXI has exceeded our first target at $44.00 and we're currently aiming for $41.25.

Annotated chart:
P>

Entry on      June 16 at $47.55 
Change since picked:     - 4.21
                              /1st target hit 44.00 (-7.4%)
Earnings Date          00/00/00 
Average Daily Volume:       170 thousand
Listed on  June 16, 2009    


PACCAR Inc. - PCAR - close: 29.50 change: -0.09 stop: 31.05

PCAR has spent the last couple of days consolidating between resistance at $30.00 and potential support at its 200-dma. Overall nothing has changed and the stock continues to look bearish with the break under $30.00 and its trendline of higher lows. I am still suggesting new bearish positions here. Our first target is $25.25. Our second target is $22.65. We don't want to hold over earnings.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July 08 at $28.90 *triggered       
Change since picked:     + 0.60   			
Earnings Date          07/21/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       4.1 million 
Listed on  July 07, 2009    


Raytheon - RTN - close: 42.68 change: +0.41 stop: 45.75

The bounce attempt in RTN is starting to look stronger. Shares have established the $42.00 level as short-term support. I could easily see a rebound toward $44.00, which should be new resistance. More conservative traders could lower their stop toward breakeven at $44.22. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Our first target is $40.25. The P&F chart is very bearish with a $13 target.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      June 24 at $44.22 
Change since picked:     - 1.54  			
Earnings Date          07/23/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.5 million 
Listed on  June 24, 2009    


Steel Index - SLX - close: 38.32 change: -0.22 stop: 42.65 *new*

Last week's sell-off in the SLX was fueled by huge volumes, which is definitely a bearish signal. However, I don't want to chase the move lower. I will lower the stop loss to $42.65 but our plan is to open bearish plays on a bounce into the $41.50-42.50 zone. Our first target is $35.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $30.00 target.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER  
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          07/23/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       297 thousand
Listed on  July 06, 2009    


Homebuilders ETF - XHB - close: 10.93 change: -0.02 stop: 12.10

The XHB acts like it wants to bounce but shares have short-term resistance at $11.00 and potentially at $11.50. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is $10.10. I am setting a secondary target at $9.10 but I strongly suggest readers take some money off the table at $10.10.

Annotated chart:

Entry on       May 23 at $11.96 
Change since picked:     - 1.03   			
Earnings Date          00/00/00
Average Daily Volume:        10 million 
Listed on   May 23, 2009    


S&P Retail SPDRs - XRT - close: 26.59 change: -0.08 stop: 28.45

The market really hasn't moved much the last couple of sessions so it's not surprising to see the XRT bounce around the $26-27 zone. I'm suggesting readers open new bearish positions on a bounce into the $27.50-28.00 zone or a new drop under $25.90.

Our target is the $22.25 mark. This could be a volatile ETF as we move through the earnings season. My time frame is about six weeks.

Annotated chart:
P>

Entry on      July 07 at $26.07 
Change since picked:     + 0.52   			
Earnings Date          00/00/00 
Average Daily Volume:        19 million 
Listed on  July 07, 2009    


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

iShares GSCI Commodity ETF - GSG - close: 26.69 change: -0.40 stop: 26.45

Commodity ETFs continued to fall thanks to strength in the dollar and the ongoing sell-off in crude oil. Shares of GSG gapped open lower at $26.56 and quickly hit our stop loss at $26.45. While our play is closed I would keep a close eye on the GSG for another opportunity once the dollar begins to breakdown again.

chart:

Entry on      July 09 at $26.56 /gap down entry
                             /originally listed at $27.09
Change since picked:     - 0.11 <-- stopped out @ 26.45 (- <1%)
Earnings Date          00/00/00 
Average Daily Volume:       622 thousand
Listed on  July 09, 2009    


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Fastenal Co. - FAST - close: 31.73 change: +1.09 stop: 31.55

We were planning to exit our FAST play on Friday at the closing bell but the stock stopped us out at $31.55 before we got the chance. The trend is still down but we did not want to hold over the Monday morning earnings report. Wall Street is expecting a profit of .33 a share.

chart:

Entry on      July 04 at $31.90 
Change since picked:     - 0.35<-- stopped out @ 31.55 (-1.0%)
Earnings Date          07/13/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.8 million 
Listed on  July 04, 2009