BULLISH Play Updates

Alcoa - AA - close: 10.22 change: -0.22 stop: 9.35

AA is a new play from Thursday night and there are no changes from my original play description. Here is a repost:

The bounce in AA from the $9.00 level and its breakout over the 200-dma and resistance at $10.00 looks pretty convincing. However, the rally has not seen a lot of volume. I suspect the stock will correct a bit before moving higher. I'm suggesting readers buy AA on a dip at $9.75. We'll use a stop loss at $9.35. Our first target is $10.90. Our second target is $12.25. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is very bullish with a $19.50 target.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER  
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          07/08/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        41 million 
Listed on  July 16, 2009    


Ameron Intl. - AMN - close: 69.76 change: -0.81 stop: 64.95

AMN suffered a little bit of profit taking on Friday and there was a spike in volume right at the closing bell on Friday. Yet volume remains very light. I am still concerned that the S&P 500 is overbought after a 7% rally in five days. Patient traders may want to consider waiting for a dip near $68.00 before launching new positions. Our target is $79.50. My time frame is six to eight weeks. I do consider this somewhat aggressive because AMN does not trade with a lot of volume.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July 16 at $70.50 *triggered       
Change since picked:     - 0.74   			
Earnings Date          09/21/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       150 thousand
Listed on  July 15, 2009    


Diana Shipping - DSX - close: 14.21 change: -0.17 stop: 12.70

I am adjusting our entry point on DSX. We want to buy this stock on a dip in the $13.50-13.00 zone. We'll keep our stop loss at $12.70. Our first target is $16.40.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER  
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          08/06/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:      1.27 million 
Listed on  July 15, 2009    


Double-Long Oil ETN - DXO - close: 3.98 change: +0.13 stop: 3.45 *new*

Target achieved. Oil continued to bounce and the DXO hit $4.06 intraday. Our first target to take profits was $3.90. I'm raising the stop loss to $3.45 near its 100-dma. The rally on Friday stalled near its 50-dma so it might be time for a little correction. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

DXO has exceeded our first target at $3.90. Our second target is $4.20. We want to exit the majority of our position at the first target. FYI: Keep an eye on the U.S. dollar. A weak dollar should boost oil prices.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July 09 at $ 3.48 /gap down entry
                              /originally listed at $3.60
Change since picked:     + 0.37   			
Earnings Date          00/00/00 
Average Daily Volume:      12.4 million 
Listed on  July 09, 2009    


MEDNAX Inc. - MD - close: 42.72 change: -0.08 stop: 41.99 *new*

I am still suggesting that more conservative traders consider an early exit in MD. The stock traded sideways under resistance at $43.00 all week while the S&P 500 gained 7%. Sounds like relative weakness to me! The only reason I am not dropping MD is that shares still have a very subtle trend of higher lows. I'm raising our stop to $41.99. More aggressive traders may want to widen their stop to just under the 50-dma (41.75). I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Our first target is $47.40.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July 01 at $43.01 *triggered       
Change since picked:     - 0.29   			
Earnings Date          08/03/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       367 thousand
Listed on  June 30, 2009    


Morgan Stanley - MS - close: 27.99 change: -0.57 stop: 26.25 *new*

Time is almost up for our MS play. The company is due to report earnings on Wednesday morning, July 22nd, before the market opens. We'll plan to exit on Tuesday afternoon at the closing bell. More conservative traders may want to exit earlier. I'm not suggesting new positions. I'm raising our stop loss to $26.25. MS has exceeded our first target at $27.75. Our second target is $29.75.

Annotated chart:

--New Trade, buy dip @ 25.25 --
Entry on      July 08 at $25.25 *triggered       
Change since picked:     + 2.74
                              /1st target hit @ 27.75 (+9.9%)
Earnings Date          07/22/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:      29.4 million 
Listed on  June 23, 2009    


NATCO Group - NTG - close: 34.02 change: +0.17 stop: 29.75

NTG delivered its fifth gain in a row on Friday. The stock is challenging short-term resistance near $34.00. I would expect a correction back toward $32.00 and readers can look for a new entry point there. More conservative traders might want to consider a stop loss near $31.00. Our exit target is $37.50. We do not want to hold over the early August earnings report.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July 15 at $32.56 *triggered/gap higher entry
Change since picked:     + 1.46   			
Earnings Date          08/03/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       270 thousand
Listed on  July 14, 2009    


Ross Stores - ROST - close: 43.42 change: -0.20 stop: 39.95

After a strong breakout to new all-time highs ROST succumbed to a little bit of profit taking on Friday. I'm not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. Our first target is $45.75. Our second target is $49.45. My time frame is about six weeks.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July 13 at $41.60 
Change since picked:     + 1.82   			
Earnings Date          08/20/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.4 million 
Listed on  July 13, 2009    


Western Digital - WDC - close: 29.24 chg: +0.37 stop: 26.95 *new*

WDC is approaching potential resistance at $30.00. I'm adjusting our exit target from $29.75 to $29.45. Hopefully that sets us up to exit on Monday. I'm also adjusting our stop loss to $26.95. I'm not suggesting new positions.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      June 25 at $26.10 *triggered       
Change since picked:     + 2.77   			
Earnings Date          07/28/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       4.6 million 
Listed on  June 24, 2009    


BEARISH Play Updates

Gamestop - GME - close: 21.96 change: -0.19 stop: 22.51 *new*

GME did not see any follow through on its bullish breakout above $22.00 from Thursday. I am suggesting that more conservative traders consider an early exit for any remaining positions. Please note I'm inching our stop loss down to $22.51. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

GME has now hit our first target at $22.05 and our second target at $20.25. We are now aiming for our third and final target at $18.15.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      June 02 at $24.32 
Change since picked:     - 2.36
                              /1st target hit @ 22.05 (-9.3%)
                             /2nd target hit @ 20.25 (-16.7%)
Earnings Date          08/20/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       6.3 million 
Listed on  June 02, 2009    


Gen-Probe - GPRO - close: 39.61 change: -0.59 stop: 42.01 *new*

GPRO under performed the market last week and it was especially evident on Friday with a 1.4% decline. Seeing the oversold bounce roll over like this looks like a new entry point for shorts. However, if you're launching positions now consider a tight stop near $40.50 or $41.00. We are lowering our stop down to $42.01. Our first target is $38.05. Our second target is $35.25. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish with a $32.00 target.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      June 23 at $42.03 /gap higher entry
                             /originally listed at $41.64
Change since picked:     - 1.83   			
Earnings Date          07/30/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       449 thousand
Listed on  June 23, 2009    


Humana Inc. - HUM - close: 28.98 change: -0.38 stop: 31.05

The situation still looks bearish for HUM. Readers can launch new bearish positions anywhere in the $29.50-30.00 zone. More conservative traders may want to consider a stop loss closer to $30.00. Our target is $25.25.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July 16 at $29.50 *triggered       
Change since picked:     - 0.52   			
Earnings Date          08/03/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.1 million 
Listed on  July 14, 2009    


Intl. Speedway - ISCA - close: 25.03 chg: -0.37 stop: 27.05

ISCA saw a very brief spike to $26.13 on Friday morning only to fade lower throughout the rest of the session. The action on Friday looks like the sort of failed rally pattern we want to use as entry points for bearish positions. More conservative traders may want to lower their stop loss to $26.15. Our first target is $22.10. Our second target is $20.25. My time frame is six to eight weeks.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July 09 at $24.75 *triggered       
Change since picked:     + 0.28   			
Earnings Date          07/07/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       342 thousand
Listed on  July 08, 2009    


Medtronic Inc. - MDT - close: 34.67 change: +0.03 stop: 35.35 *new*

MDT is still flirting with resistance near $35.00. The question you have to ask yourself is, "will MDT's resistance at $35.00 hold if the S&P 500 rallies another 10 points to resistance at 950?" If the S&P 500 breaks out over 950 then I expect MDT to stop us out but what about the next ten S&P points? I'm raising our stop loss to $35.35. More conservative traders may want to move the other way and drop their stop toward $35.00. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time but look for a failed rally under $35.00 as the next entry. Our first target to take profits is $30.10. Our second target is $28.25.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July 11 at $32.80 
Change since picked:     + 1.84   			
Earnings Date          08/18/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       6.3 million 
Listed on  July 11, 2009    


Walgreen Co. - WAG - close: 29.82 change: +0.43 stop: 30.31

WAG bounced back toward resistance near $30.00 on Friday. We want to wait for a failed rally under $30.00 before considering new bearish positions. Our stop at $30.31 is just above the 50-dma near $30.25. Our first target is $26.10.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July 11 at $28.84 
Change since picked:     + 0.98   			
Earnings Date          09/21/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       8.4 million 
Listed on  July 11, 2009    


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Tupperware - TUP - close: 29.11 change: +0.34 stop: 24.95

We are running out of time with TUP. The company is due to report earnings on Wednesday, July 22nd. That's not really long enough for shares to correct and bounce. Keep an eye on this stock for a post-earnings dip toward $27.00 (maybe $26.00) as a possible entry point.

chart:

Entry on      July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER  
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			*never opened*
Earnings Date          07/22/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       521 thousand
Listed on  July 14, 2009