BULLISH Play Updates

Alcoa - AA - close: 10.14 change: -0.46 stop: 9.35

Uh-oh! We were expecting a little correction in shares of AA. That's not the problem. The problem is that AA just produced a very clear bearish engulfing candlestick pattern, which can be interpreted as a bearish reversal signal. We still want to get long AA but I'm moving our entry point from $9.75 down to $9.15 and I'm moving the stop loss to $8.94. If the stock only pulls back toward $9.50 and begins to bounce again we'll reconsider. Our first target is $10.90. Our second target is $12.25. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is very bullish with a $19.50 target.

chart:

Entry on      July xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 9.15
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          07/08/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        41 million 
Listed on  July 16, 2009    


Ameron Intl. - AMN - close: 71.56 change: -0.02 stop: 65.95 *new*

AMN tested support in the $69.50-70.00 zone and bounced but volume remains very light. I'm upping our stop loss to $65.95. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is $79.50. My time frame is six to eight weeks. I do consider this somewhat aggressive because AMN does not trade with a lot of volume.

Entry on      July 16 at $70.50 *triggered       
Change since picked:     + 1.36   			
Earnings Date          09/21/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       150 thousand
Listed on  July 15, 2009    


Aegean Marine Petrol. - ANW - close: 17.46 change: -0.14 stop: 14.95

This is the second time in three days that ANW has produced a failed rally near $18.00 and its exponential 200-dma. I really expect a deeper correction soon.

I am adjusting our entry point zone to the $16.25-16.00 zone. We'll start the play with a stop loss at $14.95. More conservative traders might be able to get away with a stop in the 15.50-16.00 region. If triggered at $16.25 our first target to take profits is at $18.25. Our second target is $19.75.

Entry on      July xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER  16.25
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          08/12/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       284 thousand
Listed on  July 18, 2009    


Diana Shipping - DSX - close: 14.46 change: -0.11 stop: 12.70

The action today looks like a failed rally pattern. The plan is to buy a dip in the $13.50-13.00 zone. Our first target is $16.40.

Entry on      July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER  
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          08/06/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:      1.27 million 
Listed on  July 15, 2009    


Hormel Foods - HRL - close: 35.11 change: -0.14 stop: 34.20

I don't see any changes from my Monday night comments on HRL. Shares continue to look like a bullish candidate here. More aggressive traders may want to put their stop under $34.00 or under the July low of $33.73. My first target is $37.90. My second target is $39.90. My time frame is mid to late August because we need to exit in front of earnings. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is very bullish with a $50 target.

Entry on      July 20 at $35.40 /gap higher entry
                              /originally listed at $35.25
Change since picked:     - 0.29   			
Earnings Date          08/20/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       486 thousand
Listed on  July 20, 2009    


J.P.Morgan Chase - JPM - close: 36.94 change: -0.04 stop: 33.90

The banking sector was one of the worst performers today yet shares of JPM out performed its peers. The stock is churning sideways near $37.00. Momentum indicators are beginning to falter. We want to buy a dip at $35.25. Our first target is 38.75.

Entry on      July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER  
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          07/16/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        55 million 
Listed on  July 18, 2009    


NATCO Group - NTG - close: 35.78 change: +0.52 stop: 31.49 *new*

I am pleasantly surprised by NTG's relative strength. The stock notched another gain (+1.4%) and closed at new three-week highs. I'm raising our stop loss to $31.49. Our exit target is $37.50. We do not want to hold over the early August earnings report.

Entry on      July 15 at $32.56 *triggered/gap higher entry
Change since picked:     + 3.22   			
Earnings Date          08/03/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       270 thousand
Listed on  July 14, 2009    


Ross Stores - ROST - close: 43.42 change: -0.29 stop: 39.95

The rally in ROST has paused but the trend is still up. I'm not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. Our first target is $45.75. Our second target is $49.45. My time frame is about six weeks.

Entry on      July 13 at $41.60 
Change since picked:     + 2.11   			
Earnings Date          08/20/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.4 million 
Listed on  July 13, 2009    


BEARISH Play Updates

Gen-Probe - GPRO - close: 39.52 change: +0.03 stop: 42.01

Nothing has changed. GPRO is still consolidating under resistance at $40.00. Our first target is $38.05. Our second target is $35.25. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish with a $32.00 target.

Entry on      June 23 at $42.03 /gap higher entry
                             /originally listed at $41.64
Change since picked:     - 1.92   			
Earnings Date          07/30/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       449 thousand
Listed on  June 23, 2009    


Humana Inc. - HUM - close: 29.44 change: +0.39 stop: 31.05

HUM has offered us another entry point in the $29.50-30.00 zone. More conservative traders may want to consider a stop loss closer to $30.00. Our target is $25.25.

Entry on      July 16 at $29.50 *triggered       
Change since picked:     - 0.06   			
Earnings Date          08/03/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.1 million 
Listed on  July 14, 2009    


Intl. Speedway - ISCA - close: 24.49 chg: -0.51 stop: 27.05

It looks like ISCA's true colors are beginning to show. The stock lost 2% today. I would use this move as a new entry point for bearish positions. More conservative traders may want to lower their stop loss to $26.15. Our first target is $22.10. Our second target is $20.25. My time frame is six to eight weeks.

Entry on      July 09 at $24.75 *triggered       
Change since picked:     - 0.26   			
Earnings Date          07/07/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       342 thousand
Listed on  July 08, 2009    


Usana Health Sciences - USNA - close: 24.84 chg: -0.21 stop: 28.21

The stock gapped open higher only to slip to $23.58 before trimming its losses. Shares almost look short-term oversold and I wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce back toward $26.00 before rolling over again. If you're patient we might get a better entry point on a bounce near $26.00-27.00.

Please note that I consider this an aggressive, higher-risk trade because shares have very, very low daily volume (54,000) and the stock has above average short interest (about 12%). That's not a great combination should a short squeeze appear. I am suggesting traders only use very small position sizes (at least half or less than your normal trade size). My first target to take profits is $21.00.

Entry on      July 20 at $25.29 /gap higher entry
                              /originally listed at $25.05
Change since picked:     - 0.45   			
Earnings Date          07/23/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        54 thousand
Listed on  July 20, 2009    


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Morgan Stanley - MS - close: 27.56 change: -0.78 stop: 27.25

It was our plan to exit today at the closing bell but MS beat us to it by hitting our new stop loss at $27.25. It seems that investors were taking a little money off the table before the company reports earnings.

chart:

--New Trade, buy dip @ 25.25 --
Entry on      July 08 at $25.25 *triggered       
Change since picked:     + 2.00<-- stopped @ 27.25 (+7.9%)
                              /1st target hit @ 27.75 (+9.9%)
Earnings Date          07/22/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:      29.4 million 
Listed on  June 23, 2009    


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Medtronic Inc. - MDT - close: 34.75 change: +0.08 stop: 35.35

Curses! Rival Boston Scientific (BSX) reported earnings last night and the company's revenues were better than expected. Shares of BSX gapped higher this morning and MDT followed suit. MDT spiked to $35.35, which was just enough to hit our stop loss before the stock reversed lower. Our play is closed. I would keep MDT on your watch list for a new decline under $34.00 and its 50-dma.

chart:

Entry on      July 11 at $32.80 
Change since picked:     + 2.55 <-- stopped @ 35.35 (+7.7%)
Earnings Date          08/18/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       6.3 million 
Listed on  July 11, 2009    


Walgreen Co. - WAG - close: 29.96 change: -0.11 stop: 30.31

The early morning rally in shares of WAG failed but the rise was enough to hit our stop loss at $30.31. Our play is closed.

chart:

Entry on      July 11 at $28.84 
Change since picked:     + 1.47<-- stopped out @ 30.31 (+5.0%)
Earnings Date          09/21/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       8.4 million 
Listed on  July 11, 2009