BULLISH Play Updates

Ameron Intl. - AMN - close: 74.52 change: -1.17 stop: 70.95

AMN remains very overbought even after Friday's 1.5% pull back. If you haven't taken some profits yet I suggest you do so. I'm not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. AMN has already exceeded our first target at $74.70. Our second and final exit target is $79.50.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July 16 at $70.50 *triggered       
Change since picked:     + 4.02
                              /1st target hit @ 74.70 (+5.9%)
Earnings Date          09/21/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       150 thousand
Listed on  July 15, 2009    


Aegean Marine Petrol. - ANW - close: 17.00 change: +0.23 stop: 15.49 *new*

Last week we were triggered in ANW At $16.50. Unfortunately the recent bounce hasn't been very convincing. The rebound actually looks bearish. I am still expecting a decline toward $16.00. I'm going to try and limit our risk by raising the stop loss to $15.49. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop closer to $16.00. Wait for a bounce from the $16.00 level before considering new bullish positions. Our first target is $18.20 and our second target is $19.75.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July 29 at $16.50 *triggered      
Change since picked:     + 0.50   			
Earnings Date          08/12/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       284 thousand
Listed on  July 18, 2009    


Electronic Arts - ERTS - close: 21.47 change: +0.34 stop: 20.49

ERTS is finally showing a little bit of strength. We bought the dip near its trendline of support but ERTS is technically still inside a sideways consolidation. We don't have much time left. ERTS is due to report earnings on Tuesday night. We will plan to exit on Tuesday afternoon at the close. I'm not suggesting new positions. Our target to exit is $22.95.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July 28 at $21.10 
Change since picked:     + 0.37   			
Earnings Date          08/04/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       6.5 million 
Listed on  July 28, 2009    


Hormel Foods - HRL - close: 35.91 change: -0.28 stop: 34.75 *new*

The HRL rally is showing a little bit of fatigue. I would look for a dip back toward its 50-dma near $35.00. I am raising our stop loss to $34.75. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Our first target is $37.90. Our second target is $39.90. My time frame is mid to late August because we need to exit in front of earnings. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is very bullish with a $50 target.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July 20 at $35.40 /gap higher entry
                              /originally listed at $35.25
Change since picked:     + 0.51   			
Earnings Date          08/20/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       486 thousand
Listed on  July 20, 2009    


IDEX Corp. - IEX - close: 27.28 change: -0.36 stop: 24.75

Friday was the third time in the last two weeks that the rally in IEX has failed near the $28.00 level. Odds are growing it will see a correction. I'm suggesting a trigger to buy IEX at $26.10 but readers could use a $26.25-25.00 zone as an entry range. The Point & Figure chart is bullish and points to a $39.00 target. If we are triggered near $26.00 our first target is $29.85. My time frame is six to eight weeks.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER  
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          07/20/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       570 thousand
Listed on  July 25, 2009    


J.P.Morgan Chase - JPM - close: 38.65 change: +0.18 stop: 33.90

JPM is up almost 19% off its July lows yet the rally has stalled under the May 2009 highs (see chart). I am suggesting we remain patient and wait for the right entry point.

The plan is to buy JPM on a dip at $35.50. Our first target is 38.75. Our time frame is four to six weeks. FYI: JPM's P&F chart is bullish with a $51 target.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER  
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          07/16/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        55 million 
Listed on  July 18, 2009    


LDK Solar Co. - LDK - close: 10.94 change: -0.25 stop: 9.49

Wow! The post-market rally in FSLR last night turned into a route and the stock gapped open lower and posted an 11% loss. Weakness in FSLR weighed on the rest of the sector. LDK gave up 2.2%

We want to jump into LDK on a dip at $10.25. The $10.00 level should offer support and the level is underpinned by the 50-dma. We'll start with a stop loss at $9.45 but more conservative traders could try a tighter stop. If triggered our first target is $11.80. We won't have a lot of time. Earnings are due out around August 12th.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER  
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          08/12/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       4.0 million 
Listed on  July 25, 2009    


Morgan Stanley - MS - close: 28.50 change: +0.14 stop: 25.75

We are going to use two different trigger points to try and get long shares of MS. We can buy a dip at $26.75, just above its 100-dma and its long-term trendline of higher lows, or we can buy a breakout at $29.50. If MS hits our breakout trigger I would use a smaller position size (1/2 normal or less).

If we buy the dip at $26.75 our first target is $29.30 and our second target is $31.50.

If we buy a breakout at $29.50 our first target is 31.50 and our second target is $34.50.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 26.75 or 29.50
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          07/22/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        24 million 
Listed on  July 23, 2009    


Microsoft - MSFT - close: 23.52 change: -0.29 stop: 21.80 *new*

Short-term momentum indicators are suggesting the bounce is over. I don't see any changes from my Thursday night comments other than a slightly adjusted stop loss.

More aggressive traders could buy dips near the rising 50-dma. I'd prefer to wait for a dip near support around $22.00. I'm suggesting we move the stop just a bit to $21.80. More aggressive traders may want to widen their stop loss to under $21.00 or under $20.00 depending on your risk tolerance. Our ten to twelve week target will be $27.75.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July 27 at $23.00
Change since picked:     + 0.52   			
Earnings Date          07/23/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        58 million 
Listed on  July 23, 2009    


NATCO Group - NTG - close: 36.06 change: +0.06 stop: 33.90

The technical picture for NTG is mixed but the bearish signal on the MACD indicator is a concern. The recent bounce attempts have struggled near $36.50. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. We want to exit completely at $37.50.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July 15 at $32.56 *triggered/gap higher entry
Change since picked:     + 3.50   			
                              /sell 1/2 @ 36.65 (+12.5%)
Earnings Date          08/03/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       270 thousand
Listed on  July 14, 2009    


UltraShort NASDAQ - QID - close: 26.84 change: +0.21 stop: 25.69

The action on Friday was not quite the success we were looking for but at least the QID is moving the right direction. I want to remind readers that this is a very aggressive, high-risk trade as we're trying to call a top in the market, which is dangerous. Nothing has changed from my Thursday night comments. The NDX and NASDAQ have stalled at long-term resistance. This is the logical place for the rally to correct.

Traders may want to wait for a little confirmation and look for a rise over $27.75 or $28.00 before initiating bullish positions. Due to the volatility and nature of the trade I'm suggesting readers use very small position sizes. Our first target is $29.90.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July 30 at $26.63 
Change since picked:     + 0.21   			
Earnings Date          00/00/00 
Average Daily Volume:      23.9 million 
Listed on  July 30, 2009    


Ross Stores - ROST - close: 44.07 change: -0.27 stop: 42.40 *new*

The action in ROST over the last two days is really starting to look like a short-term top. I'm raising the stop loss to $42.40. More conservative traders will want to seriously consider exiting early right here. If you haven't taken any profits yet I definitely suggest you do so now. We're not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

ROST has already hit our first target at $45.75. Our second and final target is $49.45.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July 13 at $41.60 
Change since picked:     + 2.74
                              /1st target hit @ 45.75 (+9.9%)
                              /sell half @ 44.00 (+5.7%)
Earnings Date          08/20/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.4 million 
Listed on  July 13, 2009    


BEARISH Play Updates

Biogen Idec Inc. - BIIB - close: 47.55 change: +0.19 stop: 50.05

BIIB is a new play from our Thursday night newsletter and nothing has changed following Friday's minor bounce. I'm reposting Thursday's comments here:

The BTK biotech index is extremely overbought and hitting significant resistance. Combine that with the NASDAQ hitting resistance and this could be a good spot to speculate on a correction. I like BIIB as a bearish candidate because the stock has been under performing its peers. The oversold bounce has stalled under $50.00 and its exponential 200-dma. I'm suggesting bearish positions now. There is some support in the $45-44.50 zone but if the market really begins to see some profit taking I expect BIIB to break down to new lows. Our first target is $43.00. Our second target is $40.50. My time frame is four to six weeks.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July 30 at $47.36 
Change since picked:     + 0.19   			
Earnings Date          07/16/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:      3.28 million 
Listed on  July 30, 2009    


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

SBS - close: 33.71 change: +0.78 stop: 28.75

We have to give up on Companhia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao Paulo (SBS). It looks like the company is due to report earnings on August 7th. That doesn't give us much time to wait for a pull back and ride a bounce higher. Maybe shares will correct following its earnings report. Our plan was to buy a dip near $30.00 but the play never triggered.

chart:

Entry on      July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER  
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			*never opened*
Earnings Date          08/07/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       249 thousand
Listed on  July 25, 2009