BULLISH Play Updates

Ameron Intl. - AMN - close: 72.75 change: +1.04 stop: 70.95

AMN managed a 1.4% bounce but the rally stalled near the $74.00 level. Short-term indicators continue to worsen. I think odds are rising fast that AMN could hit our stop loss at $70.95 soon. More conservative traders may want to exit early now. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. AMN has already exceeded our first target at $74.70. Our second and final exit target is $79.50.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July 16 at $70.50 *triggered       
Change since picked:     + 2.25
                              /1st target hit @ 74.70 (+5.9%)
Earnings Date          09/21/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       150 thousand
Listed on  July 15, 2009    


America Movil - AMX - close: 44.67 change: +0.47 stop: 37.95

Shares of PCS and LEAP have been crushed this week but shares of AMX, a Latin-America telecom company continue look bullish. Short-term shares of AMX may be topping. Thursday's action looks like a reversal and Friday's bounce doesn't change that. Nimble traders may want to consider very short-term bearish positions. We want to buy AMX on a dip. I am suggesting readers buy AMX on a dip in the $40.50-40.00 zone. We'll use a stop loss at $37.95. Our first target is $44.50. Our second target is $47.40. Our time frame is four to six weeks once triggered.

Annotated chart:

Entry on    August xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 40.50
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          07/21/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       4.3 million 
Listed on  August 01, 2009    


Aegean Marine Petrol. - ANW - close: 18.41 change: +0.12 stop: 16.75

Broken resistance near $18.00 and its exponential 200-dma should offer some short-term support. Nimble trades can try and buy dips or bounces from the $18.00 level but if you do I'd tighten your stop significantly. An alternative entry point would be to wait for ANW to retest the trendline of higher lows. ANW has exceeded our first target at $18.20. Our second target is $19.75.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July 29 at $16.50 *triggered      
Change since picked:     + 1.91
                               /1st target hit @ 18.20 (+10.3%)
Earnings Date          08/12/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       284 thousand
Listed on  July 18, 2009    


Bank of America - BAC - close: 16.70 change: +0.04 stop: 13.40 *new*

The banking stocks have started to turn parabolic in the last three weeks. That's not normal nor is it healthy. The trend is obviously up but we don't want to chase this move. BAC has broken resistance at $15.00, at $14.00 and near $13.50. Any of these levels could act as short-term support. If you throw a Fibonacci tool on BAC's recent rally from $12.00 to $17.00 a normal 38.2% retracement would bring the stock back toward $15.00 and a 50% retracement would be near $14.50. I am raising our trigger to buy this stock to $14.75 and I'm raising our stop loss to $13.40. If triggered at $14.75 our first target is $16.75 and our second target is $17.90. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a long-term target at $31.00.

Annotated chart:

Entry on    August xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 14.75
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          07/17/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       310 million 
Listed on  August 01, 2009    


Hormel Foods - HRL - close: 36.12 change: +0.19 stop: 34.95

The trend in HRL is up but momentum has stalled with the stock going sideways for the last two weeks. This has created a bearish curve in some of the technical indicators. The MACD is about to see a new sell signal and it already has a bearish divergence. I would hesitate to open new bullish positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to raise their stops toward $35.40 instead. Our first target is $37.90. Our second target is $39.90. My time frame is mid to late August because we need to exit in front of earnings. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is very bullish with a $50 target.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July 20 at $35.40 /gap higher entry
                              /originally listed at $35.25
Change since picked:     + 0.72   			
Earnings Date          08/20/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       486 thousand
Listed on  July 20, 2009    


IDEX Corp. - IEX - close: 28.41 change: +0.81 stop: 24.75

The market's strength allowed IEX to rise 2.9% and challenge its recent highs. I still don't want to chase this move. Shares are very overbought from their $22.25 lows from early July.

We want to use a trigger to buy IEX at $26.10 but readers could use a $26.25-25.00 zone as an entry range. The Point & Figure chart is bullish and points to a $39.00 target. If we are triggered near $26.00 our first target is $29.85. My time frame is six to eight weeks.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER  
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          07/20/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       570 thousand
Listed on  July 25, 2009    


J.P.Morgan Chase - JPM - close: 42.36 change: +1.61 stop: 34.90 *new*

JPM is now up five weeks in a row and up 31% from its July lows. We want to jump on this banking stock rally but not at these levels. If you throw a Fibonacci tool on the July rally a 38.2% retracement would be back around $38.65. A 50% retracement would be near $37.35. The stock found resistance near $37.50 back in late May 2009. Let's raise our trigger to buy JPM to $37.75. We'll also raise our stop loss to $34.90. Money managers are still chasing performance so corrections in JPM will probably be shallow. I don't expect a full 50% retracement of the rally.

If triggered at $37.75 our first target is $41.75. Our longer-term target is $44.00. Our time frame is eight to ten weeks.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 37.75
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          07/16/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        55 million 
Listed on  July 18, 2009    


Morgan Stanley - MS - close: 31.22 change: +0.67 stop: 27.75 *new*

MS challenged the $32.00 level again and stalled for the second day in a row. Odds are pretty good that MS could retest the $29.00 area. Wait for a dip back toward the $29.00-28.00 zone before considering new bullish positions. I'm raising the stop loss to $27.75. MS has exceeded our first target at $31.50. I am raising our second target to $34.90.

Annotated chart:

Entry on    August 04 at $29.50 *triggered (1/2 position)  
Change since picked:     + 1.72
                              /1st target hit @ 31.50 (+6.7%)
Earnings Date          07/22/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        24 million 
Listed on  July 23, 2009    


Microsoft - MSFT - close: 23.56 change: +0.10 stop: 21.80

MSFT has spent more than two weeks churning sideways following its post-earnings sell-off. The stock tested technical support at its rising 50-dma on Thursday. This week we should either see a bounce from the bottom of its bullish channel or a breakdown and a dip toward $22.00, which should be short-term support. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

More aggressive traders may want to widen their stop loss to under $21.00 or under $20.00 depending on your risk tolerance. I'm starting to think our target at $27.75 might be too optimistic.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July 27 at $23.00
Change since picked:     + 0.56   			
Earnings Date          07/23/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        58 million 
Listed on  July 23, 2009    


UltraShort NASDAQ - QID - close: 26.19 change: -0.69 stop: 25.35

When the jobs report came out better than expected I thought surely the NASDAQ would soar to new highs and the QID would breakdown to new lows and hit our stop loss. That did not happen. Weakness in the semiconductors hampered the NASDAQ and NASDAQ-100 index and kept a lid on the indices' gains. The market's trend is certainly bullish and more conservative traders may want to cut their losses early. The fact that the NASDAQ did not hit new highs makes me think this play still has a chance. Our stop loss is at $25.35 because we want to give QID some room to maneuver. However, the recent lows have all bounce near $25.85. More conservative traders could try adjusting their stops toward this level.

I hesitate to suggest new bullish positions at this time. This is a very aggressive, counter-trend trade and suggested very small position sizes. Our first target is $29.90.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July 30 at $26.63 
Change since picked:     - 0.44   			
Earnings Date          00/00/00 
Average Daily Volume:      23.9 million 
Listed on  July 30, 2009    


TEVA Pharmaceuticals - TEVA - close: 51.72 change: -0.29 stop: 47.95

Shares of TEVA are still correcting and they fell under short-term support near $52.00 on Friday. The plan is to buy TEVA on a pull back into the $50.25-48.00 zone. If triggered at $50.00 our first target is $54.75. Our second target is $59.50. Our time frame is eight to ten weeks.

Annotated chart:

Entry on    August xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 50.25
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          11/05/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       5.3 million 
Listed on  August 05, 2009    


Grupo Televisa - TV - close: 18.39 change: +0.41 stop: 17.24

TV edges closer to resistance and appears to be coiling for a bullish breakout. We want to buy a breakout with a trigger at $18.60. If triggered our first target is $19.95. Our second target is $21.45. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $25 target.

Annotated chart:

Entry on    August xx at $xx.xx <--  TRIGGER @ 18.60
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          07/16/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.2 million 
Listed on  August 01, 2009    


BEARISH Play Updates

Biogen Idec Inc. - BIIB - close: 47.28 change: +0.63 stop: 50.05

BIIB managed to engineer a bounce on Friday but shares were already rolling over into the afternoon. Biotech stocks in general under performed the rest of the market. I would use this rebound as a new entry point to open bearish positions. Our first target is $43.00. Our second target is $40.50. My time frame is four to six weeks.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July 30 at $47.36 
Change since picked:     - 0.08   			
Earnings Date          07/16/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:      3.28 million 
Listed on  July 30, 2009    


St. Jude Medical - STJ - close: 37.35 change: -0.44 stop: 40.20

STJ is another under performer. The stock tried to bounce but failed near its 10-dma Friday morning. Shares eventually closed under their 100-dma and exponential 200-dma, which is certainly a bearish development. I would still consider new bearish positions here. Our first target is $35.50 near the simple 200-dma. Our second target is $33.00. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $30.00 target.

Annotated chart:

Entry on    August 04 at $38.32 
Change since picked:     - 0.97   			
Earnings Date          10/15/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       4.4 million 
Listed on  August 04, 2009