BULLISH Play Updates

America Movil - AMX - close: 45.67 change: +0.51 stop: varies

AMX has spent the last six days trading inside the one-day range created by its bearish reversal candle on August 6th. Thus far there has been no follow through on the signal and bulls could argue that the lack of profit taking is a sign of strength. The high on August 6th was 46.46. I'm suggesting we try two different approaches. We'll keep our buy the dip strategy but raise the entry point to $42.25 and up our stop loss to $39.95. We'll also add a breakout trigger at $46.51. If AMX hits the breakout trigger we only want to use very small positions probably 1/4 our normal size. We'll try and limit our risk with a stop loss at $45.15, just under today's low. Here's a summary:

Breakout trigger @ 46.51, stop loss 45.15, 1st target 49.75. Use small position size.

Buy the dip trigger @ 42.25, stop loss 39.95, 1st target 45.95, 2nd target 49.75.

Annotated chart:

*Breakout Trade*
Entry on    August xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 46.51, stop 45.15
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			

*Buy the dip Trade*
Entry on    August xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 42.25, stop 39.95
Change since picked:     + 0.00   		
	
Earnings Date          07/21/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       4.3 million 
Listed on  August 01, 2009    


Bank of America - BAC - close: 17.39 change: +0.39 stop: 13.95

BAC continues to show relative strength and help lead the financial sector higher. The stock closed at new highs for the year. I still don't want to chase this move but I will up our trigger to buy the dip to $15.55. If we do get triggered I would only trade 1/2 your normal position size. Only on a significant correction would I trade any larger.

Our first target is $17.75 and our second target is $18.45. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a long-term target at $31.00.

Annotated chart:

Entry on    August xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 15.55
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          07/17/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       310 million 
Listed on  August 01, 2009    


BJ Services Co. - BJS - close: 14.73 change: -0.33 stop: 13.90

A bounce in the U.S. dollar helped push crude oil lower and the oil service stocks corrected on Friday. Shares of BJS dipped to short-term support near $14.50. I would use this pull back as a new entry point to buy the stock. Our first target is $16.65. My time frame is about four weeks or less.

Annotated chart:

Entry on    August 13 at $15.06 
Change since picked:     - 0.33   			
Earnings Date          10/29/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       8.0 million 
Listed on  August 13, 2009    


Hormel Foods - HRL - close: 37.39 change: +0.09 stop: 35.95

We have three days left for the HRL play. The company reports earnings on August 20th before the opening bell. We will exit on Wednesday at the closing bell. I suspect that HRL will continue to fill the gap so more conservative traders may want to go ahead and exit early now. I am not suggesting new bullish positions. HRL has exceeded our first target but we still have a second and final target at $39.90.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July 20 at $35.40 /gap higher entry
                              /originally listed at $35.25
Change since picked:     + 1.99
                            /1st target exceeded @ 38.74 gap (+9.4%)
Earnings Date          08/20/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       486 thousand
Listed on  July 20, 2009    


IDEX Corp. - IEX - close: 26.73 change: -0.50 stop: 24.75

As expected IEX has started to correct. The short-term trend is now down but broken resistance at $26.00 should offer new support. We want to buy the stock on a pull back into the $26.10-25.00 zone. If we are triggered our first target is $29.85. My time frame is six to eight weeks.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 26.10
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          07/20/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       570 thousand
Listed on  July 25, 2009    


J.P.Morgan Chase - JPM - close: 42.45 change: -0.45 stop: 35.90 *new*

The mighty JPM continues to inch higher and the string of higher lows is virtually unbroken for the last five weeks. This pace is unsustainable. We want to be ready to buy the dip. However, I'm altering our strategy a bit. The May high was $38.94. A 38.2% Fib retracement of the current run would be near $38.65. I'm suggesting we buy JPM at $38.75. More patient traders can hold out hope for a dip closer to $36.00. However, our new stop loss is now $35.90. If triggered our first target is $42.50. Our longer-term target is $44.75. Our time frame is eight to ten weeks.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 38.75 & 37.50
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          07/16/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        55 million 
Listed on  July 18, 2009    


Morgan Stanley - MS - close: 29.79 change: -0.09 stop: 27.75

The Thursday and Friday low was pretty close to a 50% retracement of the late July and early August rally. Readers looking for an entry point may want to start scaling into MS now. A dip near $28.00 would be better but we may not get it. MS has exceeded our first target at $31.50. We're currently aiming for our second target at $34.90.

Annotated chart:

Entry on    August 04 at $29.50 *triggered (1/2 position)  
Change since picked:     + 0.29
                              /1st target hit @ 31.50 (+6.7%)
Earnings Date          07/22/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        24 million 
Listed on  July 23, 2009    


Microsoft - MSFT - close: 23.69 change: +0.07 stop: 21.80

MSFT has been going sideways for three weeks now following its earnings report. Currently the plan is to open new positions or add to positions on a dip near $22.00. However, if MSFT does not correct readers may want to consider buying a breakout over $24.50.

More aggressive traders may want to go ahead and widen their stop loss to under $21.00 or under $20.00 depending on your risk tolerance. Currently our target is at $27.75 but that might be too optimistic. We may have to stretch out our time frame from several weeks to a few months.

FYI: MSFT doesn't move very fast and eventually the market will correct. An alternative would be to just exit early now and re-enter on a dip near $22.00 or $21.00. This way your capital isn't tied up and you can use it for other trades while we wait for MSFT to retest support.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July 27 at $23.00
Change since picked:     + 0.69   			
Earnings Date          07/23/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        58 million 
Listed on  July 23, 2009    


Oil States Intl. - OIS - close: 29.16 change: -0.35 stop: 27.95

OIS pulled back to the middle of its $28-30 trading range, churned sideways and then ticked higher late in the day on Friday. More aggressive traders could launch positions now. We're waiting for a breakout over resistance. I'm suggesting readers use a trigger at $30.20 (up from 30.10 on Thursday) to open bullish positions. If triggered our first target is $34.00. Our second target is $38.00. My time frame is six to eight weeks.

Annotated chart:

Entry on    August xx at $xx.xx <--  TRIGGER @ 30.20
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          10/29/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       738 thousand
Listed on  August 13, 2009    


TEVA Pharmaceuticals - TEVA - close: 51.39 change: -0.50 stop: 47.95

New Trigger! Once again TEVA dipped toward $51.00 and its 30-dma and yet again the stock managed a bounce. More aggressive traders may want to consider new bullish positions here. I am suggesting readers wait to buy TEVA on a pull back into the $50.50-48.00 zone. If triggered at $50.50 our first target is $54.75. Our second target is $59.50. Our time frame is eight to ten weeks.

Annotated chart:

Entry on    August xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 50.50 *NEW*
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          11/05/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       5.3 million 
Listed on  August 05, 2009    


BEARISH Play Updates

Akamai Tech. - AKAM - close: 18.01 chg: -0.19 stop: 20.05

AKAM continues to slide and shares lost 1% on Friday. Volume was very light on the session. I would still consider new bearish positions in the $18.00-19.00 zone. Our first target is $16.25.

FYI: There have been rumors that AKAM is a takeover target. Readers may want to choose put options, which limit your risk to what you paid, versus shorting the stock, which has unlimited risk. A stop loss at $20.05 isn't going to work if AKAM gets an offer for a lot higher. Shares will gap open.

Annotated chart:

Entry on    August 11 at $18.44 
Change since picked:     - 0.43   			
Earnings Date          10/29/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:      10.4 million 
Listed on  August 11, 2009    


Expedia Inc. - EXPE - close: 22.12 change: -0.65 stop: 23.55

EXPE is finally starting to show some chinks in its bullish armor. The stock broke down under its 10-dma and broke down under the $22.00 level on an intraday basis. Shares hit our trigger for bearish positions at $21.85. The play is now open. I want to remind readers that this is an aggressive trade since most of the run appears to have been fueled by short covering. Our first target is $19.75. Our second target is $18.00. I suggest traders use smaller than normal position sizes.

Annotated chart:

Entry on    August 14 at $21.85 
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          10/29/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       5.0 million 
Listed on  August 10, 2009    


St. Jude Medical - STJ - close: 38.09 change: +0.12 stop: 40.20

STJ continues to trade with a bearish trend of lower highs. Unfortunately some of the technical indicators are mixed. More conservative traders may want to use a stop loss closer to $39.00 to lower their risk. The stock is still bouncing from its 100-dma and exponential 200-dma near $37.50. Readers may want to wait for a new drop under $37.50 or 37.00 to open positions. Our first target is $35.50 near the simple 200-dma. Our second target is $33.00. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $30.00 target.

Annotated chart:

Entry on    August 04 at $38.32 
Change since picked:     - 0.23   			
Earnings Date          10/15/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       4.4 million 
Listed on  August 04, 2009    


TJX Cos. Inc. - TJX - close: 35.09 change: -0.27 stop: 36.30 *new*

Last week wasn't very good for the retailers. Most of the earnings beats were due to cost cutting and layoffs while same store sales have been falling. The official retail sales numbers were worse than expected and Friday's miss on the consumer sentiment data is also bearish for the group. Unfortunately we're almost out of time for TJX. Monday is our last day. We have to exit at the close on Monday to avoid holding over earnings on Tuesday morning. It's time to start looking for new candidates in this sector. Given our time left I am lowering the stop loss to $36.30.

I am setting our first target to take profits at $32.25

Annotated chart:

Entry on    August 08 at $35.48 
Change since picked:     - 0.39   			
Earnings Date          08/18/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       5.4 million 
Listed on  August 08, 2009    


Williams Cos. - WMB - close: 16.83 change: -0.35 stop: 17.55

It looks like WMB's rally is about to roll over. I would use Friday's drop as a new entry point for bearish positions. Our first target is $15.10. Our second target is $14.10.

Annotated chart:

Entry on    August 11 at $16.78 
Change since picked:     + 0.05   			
Earnings Date          11/05/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       5.6 million 
Listed on  August 11, 2009