BULLISH Play Updates

Agrium Inc. - AGU - close: 50.80 change: +1.19 stop: 47.40

Well that didn't take long. AGU immediately rallied past resistance at $50.00. Shares actually gapped open higher at $50.65. I would still open positions here or on a dip back toward $50.00. Our first target is $54.75. Our second target is $59.75. Currently the Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $59 target.

FYI: Agrium (AGU) is trying to buy rival firm CF Industries (CF) but CF keeps rejecting the offer calling it too low. At the same time CF is trying to buy Terra Industries (TRA) and TRA keeps rejecting the offer calling it too low. Eventually one of these companies is going to give up or they're finally going to make a big enough offer or somebody else might step in and start bidding. There is a risk that someone bids too much and the market could think they overpaid, which might push the stock lower. This M&A dance has been going on for months and it will probably continue for months so I'm not expecting it to have much short-term impact on the stock.

chart:

Entry on September 08 at $50.65 /gap higher entry  
Change since picked:     + 0.15   			
Earnings Date          11/05/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.9 million 
Listed on September 05, 2009    


Citigroup - C - close: 4.68 change: -0.17 stop: 4.29

The action in C today is a little ominous. Shares rallied to $5.00 and failed and produced a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. You need to be sure you're comfortable with how much volatility you're willing to stomach here. C can easily dip back toward $4.30. and possibly the $4.20 level. More aggressive traders might want to adjust their stops down to $4.19-4.15. I'm not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. Let's see where C can bounce first. Keep an eye on the $4.50-4.60 zone. Due to the volatility I'm suggesting very small position sizes.

Our first target to take profits is at $5.40. Our second target to exit is $5.95.

Entry on September 03 at $ 4.87 /gap higher entry
                             /listed at $4.77
Change since picked:     - 0.19   			
Earnings Date          10/16/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.0 billion    
Listed on September 03, 2009    


China Mobile Ltd. - CHL - close: 51.07 chg: +0.85 stop: 47.90

The Chinese stock markets continue to rally and CHL gained 1.6%. Technicals are starting to improve on the rebound. Our first target is $54.00. Our second target is $58.00. Our time frame is several weeks.

Entry on    August 31 at $48.73 /gap down entry point
Change since picked:     + 2.34   			
Earnings Date          00/00/?? (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.3 million 
Listed on  August 29, 2009    


Capstone Turbine - CPST - close: 1.36 change: +0.03 stop: 0.98

We might be too optimistic hoping for another dip in CPST. Aggressive traders could try a breakout trigger over $1.45. Currently our plan is to buy CPST on a dip at $1.15. This remains a very aggressive play.

CPST's P&F chart is bullish with a $2.88 target. I'm setting our first target to take profits at $1.50. We'll tentatively set a second target at $1.85. Remember, just because the stock is "cheap" don't go overboard.

Entry on    August xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 1.15
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          11/09/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       4.8 million 
Listed on  August 29, 2009    


Carpenter Tech. - CRS - close: 22.57 change: +1.65 stop: 19.75

Wow! The strength of the rally in CRS on Tuesday was a little more than I expected. Shares gapped open higher at $21.45 and soared past resistance near its exponential 200-dma and the $22.00 level. The stock closed with a 7.8% gain. I wouldn't chase it here if you didn't jump in this morning. Wait for a dip near $22.00 or for CRS to fill the gap near $21.00. Our first target is $24.90. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher.

Entry on September 05 at $21.45 /gap higher entry
                             /originally listed at $20.92
Change since picked:     + 1.12   			
Earnings Date          10/28/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       536 thousand
Listed on September 05, 2009    


Darden Restaurants - DRI - close: 34.15 chg: -0.26 stop: 32.45

DRI gapped open higher and we've adjusted our entry point. Unfortunately the rally stalled at $35.00 and shares fell back toward short-term support near $34.00. A bounce from here or a dip near $33.00 can be used as a new entry point. It depends on how nimble you are and how much risk you want to take. More conservative traders can wait for a move over $35.00. Our first target is the $39.40 mark.

FYI: DRI is not a fast moving stock. Getting to $39.40 could take several weeks. Another restaurant stock that's on the move is CBRL. Readers may want to check it out.

Entry on September 05 at $34.82 
                              /originally listed at $34.41
Change since picked:     - 0.67   			
Earnings Date          09/29/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.6 million 
Listed on September 05, 2009    


Ford Motor Co. - F - close: 7.30 change: -0.13 stop: 7.39

Shares of Ford are still suffering under a multi-week trend of lower highs. I don't see any changes from my prior comments. I'm suggesting we stay with the two strategies already listed.

We have a breakout trigger to buy F at $7.85 with a stop at $7.39.

We have a buy the dip trigger at $6.50 with a stop at $5.99. We want to trade small positions no matter what trigger F hits.

If triggered at $7.85 our first target is just under the old highs at $8.80. Our second target is $9.40.

Entry on    August xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 7.85 or $6.50
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          11/05/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        90 million 
Listed on  August 27, 2009    


IDEX Corp. - IEX - close: 28.14 change: +0.48 stop: 25.75

IEX is showing some relative strength with a 1.7% gain. The stock is nearing what could be tougher resistance in the $28.25-28.50 zone. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Our first target is $29.85. My time frame is six to eight weeks. We might want to add a second target in the $32.00-33.00 zone. The P&F chart is forecasting a $39 target.

Entry on    August 17 at $26.10 *triggered         
Change since picked:     + 2.14   			
Earnings Date          07/20/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       570 thousand
Listed on  July 25, 2009    


J.P.Morgan Chase - JPM - close: 42.54 change: +0.20 stop: 39.90

Some of the short-term technicals on JPM remain bearish. I'd prefer to buy the stock on another bounce from $41.00 or a move over $43.50 again. Our plan was to use smaller position sizes (1/2 to 1/4 our normal size). Our target is $47.40. My time frame is about six weeks.

Entry on    August 21 at $43.50 *triggered (1/2 to 1/4 normal size)
Change since picked:     - 0.96   			
Earnings Date          07/16/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        55 million 
Listed on  July 18, 2009    


Kirby Corp. - KEX - close: 38.44 change: +1.35 stop: 35.25

KEX saw some huge volume today due to the changes in the S&P indices I mentioned over the weekend. The stock gapped open higher at $37.70, which was above our trigger at $37.60 so the play was opened immediately. If you missed the entry point then consider waiting for a dip back toward the $37.20-37.00 zone. Our first target to take profits is at $39.95. Our second and final target is $42.40. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $57 target.

FYI: Standard & Poor's moving ARG from the midcap 400 index to the S&P 500 index. It's moving KEX from the small cap 600 to the midcap 400 to replace ARG. This move is supposed to take place after the close of trading on Tuesday, September 8th.

hart:

Entry on September 08 at $37.70 /triggered/gap higher entry
Change since picked:     + 0.74   			
Earnings Date          10/29/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       310 thousand
Listed on September 05, 2009    


Altria Group Inc. - MO - close: 18.52 change: +0.02 stop: 17.90

The action was pretty subdued in MO today. If you're the patient type then we might see an entry point near $18.25-18.15. I'm suggesting bullish positions now with a stop at $17.90. Our first target is $19.90. The P&F chart is bullish with a $23.00 target. Our time frame is several weeks. Make sure you have the patience for this one before jumping in.

Entry on September 05 at $18.50 
Change since picked:     + 0.02   			
Earnings Date          10/22/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:      15.5 million 
Listed on September 05, 2009    


Microsoft - MSFT - close: 24.82 change: +0.20 stop: 22.95

MSFT showed some strength today with an 0.8% gain. If you're willing to buy the bounce then consider a tighter stop closer to $23.75. MSFT moves slowly so there's no big rush to jump in. Currently our target is $27.75.

Entry on      July 27 at $23.00
Change since picked:     + 1.82   			
Earnings Date          07/23/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        58 million 
Listed on  July 23, 2009    


Playboy Ent. - PLA - close: 2.69 change: +0.02 stop: 2.45

The early morning rally stalled at the exponential 200-dma. I'm still bullish on the rebound in PLA and would still enter new positions here.

Our first target to take profits is at $3.30. Our second target is $3.95. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $7.50 target.

Entry on September 01 at $ 2.65
Change since picked:     + 0.04   			
Earnings Date          11/05/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       370 thousand
Listed on  August 29, 2009    


Raytheon Co. - RTN - close: 46.29 change: -0.27 stop: 46.40

RTN is still showing relative weakness. We may want to watch for a bearish entry point instead of a bullish one. Currently the plan is to buy RTN on a breakout higher with a trigger at $48.65. If triggered our first target is $52.50. Our second target is $54.85.

Entry on    August xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER 48.65
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          10/22/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.7 million 
Listed on  August 22, 2009    


Ship Finance Intl. - SFL - close: 12.01 change: -0.38 stop: 11.70

Uh-oh! The tone in SFL just took a turn for the worse. The rally stalled near its 30-dma and exponential 200-dma. With a 3% decline today SFL was clearly under performing the market. More conservative traders may want to abandon ship right now! I'm not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. Our first target is $14.80. Our second target is $17.00. Our time frame is several weeks. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $28 target.

Entry on    August 27 at $12.80 *triggered
Change since picked:     - 0.79   			
Earnings Date          11/27/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       499 thousand
Listed on  August 25, 2009    


Schlumberger - SLB - close: 58.10 change: +2.23 stop: 53.85

The U.S. dollar fell to its lowest levels of the year. This lifted crude oil to a 5% gain and the energy sector rallied. SLB gapped open higher at $56.93 and surged to short-term resistance at $58.00. If you didn't buy the rally this morning then look for a dip back toward $56.00 as an entry point. I am adjusting our targets. Our first target is $62.50. Our second target is $67.50. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $73 target.

Entry on September 05 at $56.93 /gap higher entry
                             /originally listed at $55.87
Change since picked:     + 1.17   			
Earnings Date          10/23/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       8.7 million 
Listed on September 05, 2009    


TEVA Pharmaceuticals - TEVA - close: 51.38 change: +0.22 stop: 48.95

Tuesday was a quiet day for TEVA. The stock churned sideways in a narrow range outside of the initial spike this morning. I don't see any changes from my weekend comments. Our first target is $54.75. Our second target is $59.50. Our time frame is eight to ten weeks.

Entry on    August 17 at $50.50 *triggered                
Change since picked:     + 0.88   			
Earnings Date          11/05/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       5.3 million 
Listed on  August 05, 2009    


Ultra(Long) Financials - UYG - close: 5.44 change: +0.08 stop: 4.90

Financials are edging higher but the bounce still looks weak. UYG is nearing resistance in the $5.50 region. Look for a move over $5.55 or $5.60 to launch positions.

Our first target to take profits is at $6.00. Our second target is $6.50. This can be a very volatile security. It's not for the faint of heart.

Entry on September 03 at $ 5.29 
Change since picked:     + 0.14   			
Earnings Date          00/00/00 
Average Daily Volume:      47.8 million 
Listed on September 03, 2009    


BEARISH Play Updates

Akamai Tech. - AKAM - close: 17.32 chg: -0.15 stop: 18.60

AKAM's early morning strength failed at $17.73. More conservative traders may want to lower their stops closer to $18.00. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Our first target is $16.25. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower.

Entry on    August 11 at $18.44 
Change since picked:     - 1.31   			
Earnings Date          10/29/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:      10.4 million 
Listed on  August 11, 2009    


Electronic Arts - ERTS - close: 18.93 change: +0.42 stop: 19.55

No, that's not a typo. ERTS gained 42 cents again. Shares are nearing resistance around $19.00. Watch for the bounce to roll over and use it as a new entry point. Our first target to take profits is at $17.05. Our second and final target is at $16.15. FYI: The P&F chart is currently bearish with a $14 target.

Entry on    August 29 at $18.31 /gap down entry
                              /originally listed at $18.76
Change since picked:     + 0.62   			
Earnings Date          10/29/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       9.3 million 
Listed on  August 29, 2009    


Goodrich Petrol. - GDP - close: 22.84 change: +1.32 stop: 24.25

The dollar weakness fueled a big rise in oil and the energy-related stocks rallied. GDP gained 6.1%. The stock is nearing short-term resistance at 422.00. We can look for a failed rally near $23.00 or $24.00 as a new entry point.

The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $10 target. I'm setting our first target at $20.25. Our second target is $18.50.

Warning - Readers need to be aware that I'm not the only one that thinks GDP is going lower. The most recent data listed short interest at more than 25% of the 24 million-share float. That's a lot of interest and a small float, which equals high-risk! Instead of trying to short GDP you might want to consider put options, which have limited risk.

Entry on September 01 at $22.44 
Change since picked:     + 0.40   			
Earnings Date          11/04/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       524 thousand
Listed on September 01, 2009    


Northwest Pipe Co. - NWPX - close: 32.92 change: +0.79 stop: 34.10

The oversold bounce continues. Shares are stalling near resistance at $33.00. Look for this bounce to roll over as a new entry point for bearish positions. Our first target is $28.00. Our second target is $25.50. The P&F chart is bearish with a $25 target. FYI: Instead of trying to short NWPX readers may want to consider buying put options, which have limited risk.

Entry on September 01 at $31.42 /gap down entry
                             /originally listed at $31.73
Change since picked:     + 1.50   			
Earnings Date          10/22/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        57 thousand
Listed on September 01, 2009