BULLISH Play Updates

Agrium Inc. - AGU - close: 50.21 change: -0.07 stop: 47.40

The market's sideways action on Friday left AGU drifting along the $50.00 level. We can still use this dip as an entry point to buy the stock. If you think the market will see a slightly deeper pull back this week then look for AGU to retest the $48.00 level and buy it there. Our first target is $54.75. Our second target is $59.75. Currently the Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $59 target.

FYI: Agrium (AGU) is trying to buy rival firm CF Industries (CF) but CF keeps rejecting the offer calling it too low. At the same time CF is trying to buy Terra Industries (TRA) and TRA keeps rejecting the offer calling it too low. Eventually one of these companies is going to give up or they're finally going to make a big enough offer or somebody else might step in and start bidding. There is a risk that someone bids too much and the market could think they overpaid, which might push the stock lower. This M&A dance has been going on for months and it will probably continue for months so I'm not expecting it to have much short-term impact on the stock.

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 08 at $50.65 /gap higher entry  
Change since picked:     - 0.37   			
Earnings Date          11/05/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.9 million 
Listed on September 05, 2009    


Citigroup - C - close: 4.61 change: -0.14 stop: 4.29

The banking indices are struggling with short-term resistance and shares of C continue to look like the next move will be lower. C has already bounced once near its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the July-August rally. Another test raises the risk of a breakdown. More conservative traders may want to seriously consider an early exit right here. You can re-enter when Citigroup breaks the short-term trend of lower highs (a move over $4.80 should suffice). I'm not suggesting new bullish positions at current levels.

You need to be sure you're comfortable with how much volatility you're willing to stomach here. More aggressive traders might want to adjust their stops down to $4.19-4.15.

Due to the volatility I'm suggesting very small position sizes. Our first target to take profits is at $5.40. Our second target to exit is $5.95.

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 03 at $ 4.87 /gap higher entry
                             /listed at $4.77
Change since picked:     - 0.26   			
Earnings Date          10/16/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.0 billion    
Listed on September 03, 2009    


China Mobile Ltd. - CHL - close: 50.75 chg: -0.02 stop: 47.90

I was a little surprised that CHL didn't perform better on Friday given the strength in Chinese markets. Shares have continued to trade sideways. I would still consider bullish positions in the $50-49 region but more conservative traders may want to wait for bounces to enter the stock. Our first target is $54.00. Our second target is $58.00. Our time frame is several weeks.

Annotated chart:

Entry on    August 31 at $48.73 /gap down entry point
Change since picked:     + 2.80   			
Earnings Date          00/00/?? (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.3 million 
Listed on  August 29, 2009    


Carpenter Tech. - CRS - close: 23.59 change: -0.04 stop: 19.75

CRS rallied to a new ten-week high at $24.15 and reversed. The move looks like a very short-term top/reversal. I would expect a dip back toward the $22.00-21.00 zone. Wait for the dip or a bounce from those levels before initiating new positions. Our first target is $24.90. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $36 target.

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 05 at $21.45 /gap higher entry
                             /originally listed at $20.92
Change since picked:     + 2.14   			
Earnings Date          10/28/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       536 thousand
Listed on September 05, 2009    


Changyou.com Ltd - CYOU - close: 40.54 change: -1.15 stop: 38.80

CYOU failed to see any follow through on Thursday's bounce from support near $40.00. I was somewhat surprised to see CYOU's relative weakness given the strength in the Chinese markets on Friday. The stock should have support at $40.00 and another level of short-term support at $39.00 but more conservative traders may want to limit their risk with a tighter stop loss than our $38.80. Wait for a bounce to open positions. Our first target is $45.75.

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 10 at $41.69 
Change since picked:     - 1.15   			
Earnings Date          10/26/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       408 thousand
Listed on September 10, 2009    


Darden Restaurants - DRI - close: 34.55 chg: -0.15 stop: 32.45

DRI is still struggling with resistance at the $35.00 level but the short-term trend is still up. I would still consider new bullish positions here or on dips in the $34-33 zone. More cautious traders might want to up their stop closer to $33.00. Our first target is the $39.40 mark.

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 05 at $34.82 
                              /originally listed at $34.41
Change since picked:     - 0.27   			
Earnings Date          09/29/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.6 million 
Listed on September 05, 2009    


E M C Corp. - EMC - close: 16.90 change: -0.09 stop: 15.24

EMC closed a strong week near its yearly highs. We want to jump on board but only on a pull back. Currently the plan is to buy EMC on a dip at $15.75. We'll use a stop loss under the September low. Our target to exit is $18.00. We'll plan to exit ahead of the late October earnings report.

Annotated chart:

Entry on September xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 15.75
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          10/22/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:      19.6 million 
Listed on September 09, 2009    


IDEX Corp. - IEX - close: 29.12 change: -0.02 stop: 25.75

IEX is holding up pretty well. Shares look a little overbought and a dip would be healthy. Readers can look for a new entry point if IEX bounces in the $27-28 region. More conservative traders may want to take profits right now. I would sell most of our position at $29.85. We do have a second target at $32.00. The P&F chart is forecasting a $39 target.

Annotated chart:

Entry on    August 17 at $26.10 *triggered         
Change since picked:     + 3.12   			
Earnings Date          07/20/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       570 thousand
Listed on  July 25, 2009    


J.P.Morgan Chase - JPM - close: 42.50 change: -0.52 stop: 39.90

The rally in JPM is losing momentum. If the stock rolls over from here it will start to look like a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. I'm not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop or just exit early and wait for more clarity.

Our plan was to use smaller position sizes (1/2 to 1/4 our normal size). Our target is $47.40. My time frame is about six weeks.

Annotated chart:

Entry on    August 21 at $43.50 *triggered (1/2 to 1/4 normal size)
Change since picked:     - 1.00   			
Earnings Date          07/16/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        55 million 
Listed on  July 18, 2009    


Kirby Corp. - KEX - close: 38.68 change: -0.13 stop: 35.25

The rally in KEX has stalled a bit near its August highs around $39. Odds are pretty good that KEX will see a dip and I'd open new positions on a pullback into the $37.50-37.00 zone. Our first target to take profits is at $39.95. Our second and final target is $42.40. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $57 target.

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 08 at $37.70 /triggered/gap higher entry
Change since picked:     + 0.98   			
Earnings Date          10/29/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       310 thousand
Listed on September 05, 2009    


Altria Group Inc. - MO - close: 18.14 change: -0.05 stop: 17.90

MO gapped down on Friday thanks to its quarterly cash dividend. The next dividend payment is October 8th, 2009. Shares are testing previous resistance and what should be support at $18.00. We can use the pull back as a new entry point to buy the stock. Our first target is $19.90. The P&F chart is bullish with a $23.00 target. Our time frame is several weeks. Make sure you have the patience for this one before jumping in.

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 05 at $18.50 
Change since picked:     - 0.36   			
Earnings Date          10/22/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:      15.5 million 
Listed on September 05, 2009    


Microsoft - MSFT - close: 24.86 change: -0.14 stop: 22.95

MSFT's rebound is losing steam. I'd look for another pull back toward $24.00 and its 50-dma. Currently our target is $27.75.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July 27 at $23.00
Change since picked:     + 1.86   			
Earnings Date          07/23/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        58 million 
Listed on  July 23, 2009    


Playboy Ent. - PLA - close: 3.11 change: +0.25 stop: 2.45

The rally (or short covering) in PLA is picking up speed. Shares soared 8.7% on Friday with strong volume to breakout over resistance at $3.00. The high was $3.18. The stock is already up 17% from our entry point and you're looking even strong if you bought the dip near $2.50. Given the sharp two-day rise we should expect a little profit taking soon.

More conservative traders may want to take some money off the table now with PLA hitting a potential trendline of resistance. Our plan is to take profits at our first target of $3.30. Our second target is $3.95. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a long-term $7.50 target.

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 01 at $ 2.65
Change since picked:     + 0.46   			
Earnings Date          11/05/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       370 thousand
Listed on  August 29, 2009    


Rockwell Automation - ROK - close: 43.50 change: +0.35 stop: 39.95

Ouch! ROK gapped open higher at $43.71 so our entry point could have been better. Shares filled the gap and started to drift higher again. I would consider new bullish positions anywhere in the $44.00-42.00 zone. Our first target is the $49.00 mark. Our time frame is several weeks. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $61 target.

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 10 at $43.71 /gap higher entry
                           /originally listed at $43.15
Change since picked:     - 0.21   			
Earnings Date          11/10/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.4 million 
Listed on September 10, 2009    


Schlumberger - SLB - close: 60.39 change: +1.96 stop: 54.95 *new*

SLB shows some relative strength on Friday after Goldman Sachs upgrades the stock from a "neutral" to a "buy". Shares of SLB gapped open higher at $59.81 and hit $61.77 before paring its gains. Don't be surprised if SLB fills the gap with a dip back toward $58.00 soon. I am raising our stop loss to $54.95. More conservative traders may want a stop closer to $56.00 instead. Our first target is $62.50. Our second target is $67.50. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $73 target.

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 05 at $56.93 /gap higher entry
                             /originally listed at $55.87
Change since picked:     + 3.46   			
Earnings Date          10/23/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       8.7 million 
Listed on September 05, 2009    


TEVA Pharmaceuticals - TEVA - close: 52.70 change: +0.02 stop: 49.75

The bounce this last week looks like it's running out of steam under short-term resistance at $53.00. Look for a dip toward the $51.50-51.00 zone as a new bullish entry point. Our first target is $54.75. Our second target is $59.50. Our time frame is eight to ten weeks.

Annotated chart:

Entry on    August 17 at $50.50 *triggered                
Change since picked:     + 2.20   			
Earnings Date          11/03/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       5.3 million 
Listed on  August 05, 2009    


Ultra(Long) Financials - UYG - close: 5.61 change: -0.07 stop: 4.90

The rally in financials looks like it might be stalling. Unfortunately for the bulls if the rally does stall here it will start to look like a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. More conservative traders may want to up their stop loss to breakeven at $5.29. I'm not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

Our first target to take profits is at $6.00. Our second target is $6.50. This can be a very volatile security. It's not for the faint of heart.

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 03 at $ 5.29 
Change since picked:     + 0.32   			
Earnings Date          00/00/00 
Average Daily Volume:      47.8 million 
Listed on September 03, 2009    


BEARISH Play Updates

Electronic Arts - ERTS - close: 18.18 change: +0.13 stop: 19.55

ERTS should have been weaker and investors need to be cautious here. Video games sales have fallen for the sixth month in a row, which is shocking for some who thought that video games were mostly recession proof. They certainly offer the biggest bang for your entertainment buck. ERTS recently released their 10th version of the Madden NFL franchise. It was the biggest selling game last month with 1.9 million units sold yet this was below expectations.

Fundamentals seem to be bearish for ERTS but the stock bounced from its early September lows on Friday. If shares rally past $19.00 it will look like a bullish double bottom pattern. I'm not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. Wait for the next failed rally. Our first target to take profits is at $17.05. Our second and final target is at $16.15. The P&F chart is currently bearish with a $14 target.

FYI: I have heard ERTS' name used as a takeover candidate recently following the DIS-MVL news. It didn't seem like a serious threat but more of a what-if scenario with a big media company buying ERTS. If someone does makes a bid for ERTS our stop loss may not help much. An alternative to short ERTS stock would be buying put options, which have limited risk.

Annotated chart:

Entry on    August 29 at $18.31 /gap down entry
                              /originally listed at $18.76
Change since picked:     - 0.13   			
Earnings Date          10/29/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       9.3 million 
Listed on  August 29, 2009    


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Cracker Barrel - CBRL - close: 31.53 chg: -0.05 stop: 27.90

CBRL is holding up relatively well. Unfortunately we're running out of time. The company is due to report earnings on September 15th. I'm dropping CBRL as a bullish candidate until after they report. Then we'll re-evaluate. Our original plan was to buy the stock on a dip near $30.00.

chart:

Entry on September xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 30.15 *never opened*
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          09/15/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       348 thousand
Listed on September 08, 2009    


Capstone Turbine - CPST - close: 1.44 change: -0.02 stop: 0.98

CPST dipped toward previous resistance and now short-term support at $1.40. Aggressive traders might want to consider bullish positions. This is a volatile stock and I would prefer to buy it lower. The plan was to buy a dip at $1.15, which hasn't happened yet.

At this time I'm dropping CPST as a candidate but I'd keep it on your watch list for an entry point down the road. The $1.50-1.70 zone looks like resistance.

chart:

Entry on    August xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 1.15 *never opened*
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          11/09/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       4.8 million 
Listed on  August 29, 2009    


Ford Motor Co. - F - close: 7.33 change: -0.11 stop: 7.39

Ford is not participating in the market's rally. The relative weakness is worrisome. I'm dropping the stock as a bullish candidate for now. However, I'd keep F on your watch list for a bullish breakout of a bounce from the $6.50 zone. Our bullish play was never opened.

chart:

Entry on    August xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 7.85 or $6.50
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			*never opened*
Earnings Date          11/05/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        90 million 
Listed on  August 27, 2009    


Raytheon Co. - RTN - close: 46.56 change: +0.34 stop: 46.40

RTN managed a meager bounce on Friday but the short-term trend is still down. I'm removing the stock as a bullish candidate. I'd keep an eye on RTN for a breakdown under $45.00 or a breakout over $48.50.

chart:

Entry on    August xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER 48.65
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			*never opened*
Earnings Date          10/22/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.7 million 
Listed on  August 22, 2009    


Ship Finance Intl. - SFL - close: 12.03 change: -0.06 stop: 11.70

SFL is still clinging to technical support at its 50-dma but shares look like they're about to breakdown. I'm suggesting an early exit now to cut our losses.

chart:

Entry on    August 27 at $12.80 *triggered
Change since picked:     - 0.77 <-- early exit @ 12.03 (-6.0%)
Earnings Date          11/27/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       499 thousand
Listed on  August 25, 2009