The rally continues for most of the market but Citigroup sank on fears the government would start dumping stock. Meanwhile CRS hits our target.


BULLISH Play Updates

Agrium Inc. - AGU - close: 51.16 change: +1.70 stop: 47.40

AGU produced a nice bounce today with a 3.4% gain. The stock looks poised to breakout to new relative highs soon. I'd still consider bullish positions here. Our first target is $54.75. Our second target is $59.75. Currently the Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $59 target.

FYI: Agrium (AGU) is trying to buy rival firm CF Industries (CF) but CF keeps rejecting the offer calling it too low. At the same time CF is trying to buy Terra Industries (TRA) and TRA keeps rejecting the offer calling it too low. Eventually one of these companies is going to give up or they're finally going to make a big enough offer or somebody else might step in and start bidding. There is a risk that someone bids too much and the market could think they overpaid, which might push the stock lower. This M&A dance has been going on for months and it will probably continue for months so I'm not expecting it to have much short-term impact on the stock.

Entry on September 08 at $50.65 /gap higher entry  
Change since picked:     + 0.51   			
Earnings Date          11/05/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.9 million 
Listed on September 05, 2009    


BE Aerospace - BEAV - close: 19.22 change: -0.05 stop: 17.45

The market hit new highs but BEAV only traded sideways? Is it a sign of relative weakness or just a pause in the rally? Shares do look a little overbought. Consider waiting for a dip toward $18.00 as our next entry point. Our first target is $22.25.

Entry on September 12 at $19.19 
Change since picked:     + 0.03   			
Earnings Date          10/27/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       834 thousand
Listed on September 12, 2009    


China Mobile Ltd. - CHL - close: 49.73 chg: -0.63 stop: 47.90

CHL is dipping back toward its supporting trendline. I would use the pull back as a new bullish entry point. Our first target is $54.00. Our second target is $58.00. Our time frame is several weeks.

Entry on    August 31 at $48.73 /gap down entry point
Change since picked:     + 1.00  			
Earnings Date          00/00/?? (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.3 million 
Listed on  August 29, 2009    


Carpenter Tech. - CRS - close: 24.64 change: +0.31 stop: 21.45

Target achieved. CRS rallied to $25.04 intraday. Our main target to take profits was at $24.90. The $25.00 level is major resistance and I'd expect a pull back here. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Our secondary target is $27.40.

chart:

Entry on September 05 at $21.45 /gap higher entry
                             /originally listed at $20.92
Change since picked:     + 3.19
                             /1st target hit @ 24.90 (+16.0%)
Earnings Date          10/28/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       536 thousand
Listed on September 05, 2009    


Changyou.com Ltd - CYOU - close: 41.28 change: +0.74 stop: 38.80

CYOU is still bouncing and I would still consider new bullish positions here. Our first target is $45.75.

Entry on September 10 at $41.69 
Change since picked:     - 0.41   			
Earnings Date          10/26/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       408 thousand
Listed on September 10, 2009    


Darden Restaurants - DRI - close: 34.95 chg: +0.05 stop: 32.45

I'm a little surprised that DRI didn't show more strength on the better than expected U.S. retail sales data this morning. Shares are still hovering under resistance at $35.00 but the short-term trend is bullish with a pattern of higher lows. More cautious traders might want to up their stop closer to $33.00. Our first target is the $39.40 mark.

Entry on September 05 at $34.82 
                              /originally listed at $34.41
Change since picked:     + 0.13   			
Earnings Date          09/29/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.6 million 
Listed on September 05, 2009    


E M C Corp. - EMC - close: 16.90 change: -0.02 stop: 15.24

EMC is still floating under resistance at $17.00. We don't want to chase it here. Currently the plan is to buy EMC on a dip at $15.75. We'll use a stop loss under the September low. Our target to exit is $18.00. We'll plan to exit ahead of the late October earnings report.

Entry on September xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 15.75
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          10/22/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:      19.6 million 
Listed on September 09, 2009    


General Electric - GE - close: 16.00 change: +0.65 stop: 13.80

The rally in GE continues. The stock actually gapped open higher this morning at $15.49 so we have adjusted our entry point. The $15.00 level was serious resistance so this could be fueled by short covering. Volume was definitely strong at more than 200 million shares. I'd look for a dip back toward the $15.50-15.00 zone instead of chasing GE here. I do consider this an aggressive trade so we want to keep our positions small. Our first target is $17.25.

Entry on September 14 at $15.49 /gap higher entry
                             /originally listed at $15.35
Change since picked:     + 0.51   			
Earnings Date          10/16/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        83 million 
Listed on September 14, 2009    


Hornbeck Offshore - HOS - close: 25.89 change: +1.14 stop: 21.75

It was a strong session for HOS with a 4.6% gain on strong volume. Unfortunately our plan is to buy a dip at $23.25. We don't want to chase this move. If triggered our first target is $26.45. Our second target is $29.00.

Entry on September xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 23.25
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          11/05/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       344 thousand
Listed on September 12, 2009    


IDEX Corp. - IEX - close: 29.51 change: +0.18 stop: 25.75

IEX is still drifting sideways under new resistance in the $29.70 region. Shares look poised to move higher but I strongly suggest that readers consider taking some profits off the table right here. Officially our first target to exit is $29.85. We have a secondary target at $32.00. The P&F chart is forecasting a $39 target.

Entry on    August 17 at $26.10 *triggered         
Change since picked:     + 3.41   			
Earnings Date          07/20/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       570 thousand
Listed on  July 25, 2009    


J.P.Morgan Chase - JPM - close: 43.19 change: -0.56 stop: 39.90

Lack of follow through on yesterday's bullish session is disappointing. Investors were unhappy to hear that JPM, DFS, and COF all said their consumer credit card defaults rose in August. I'm still bullish on the stock but readers could wait for a new relative high (about 44.30) to open positions.

Our plan was to use smaller position sizes (1/2 to 1/4 our normal size). Our target is $47.40. My time frame is about six weeks.

Entry on    August 21 at $43.50 *triggered (1/2 to 1/4 normal size)
Change since picked:     - 0.31   			
Earnings Date          07/16/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        55 million 
Listed on  July 18, 2009    


Kirby Corp. - KEX - close: 38.51 change: -0.13 stop: 35.25

KEX is still churning sideways in the $38-39 zone. Volume has been pretty light during this consolidation. I am suggesting readers open new positions on a pullback into the $37.50-37.00 zone. Our first target to take profits is at $39.95. Our second and final target is $42.40. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $57 target.

Entry on September 08 at $37.70 /triggered/gap higher entry
Change since picked:     + 0.81   			
Earnings Date          10/29/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       310 thousand
Listed on September 05, 2009    


Microsoft - MSFT - close: 25.20 change: +0.20 stop: 22.95

Tech stocks displayed some strength and MSFT closed higher. I'd look for another pull back toward $24.00 and its 50-dma before launching new positions. Currently our target is $27.75.

Entry on      July 27 at $23.00
Change since picked:     + 2.20   			
Earnings Date          07/23/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        58 million 
Listed on  July 23, 2009    


Pride Intl. Inc. - PDE - close: 30.70 change: +0.93 stop: 26.40

PDE extends its gains but volume is fading. Average volume is 3.7 million shares. Volume today only hit 2.0 million. The plan is to buy PDE at $27.65. Our first target is $30.45. Our second target is $33.45. We'll plan to exit ahead of the late October earnings report.

Entry on September xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER @ 27.65
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          10/29/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.7 million 
Listed on September 12, 2009    


Playboy Ent. - PLA - close: 3.13 change: +0.09 stop: 2.45

PLA is back to showing relative strength again with a 2.9% gain. More conservative traders may want to take some money off the table now. Our plan is to take profits at our first target of $3.30. Our second target is $3.95. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a long-term $7.50 target.

Entry on September 01 at $ 2.65
Change since picked:     + 0.48   			
Earnings Date          11/05/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       370 thousand
Listed on  August 29, 2009    


Rockwell Automation - ROK - close: 44.06 change: +0.34 stop: 39.95

ROK is slowly marching higher. I'm still suggesting bullish positions in the $42.00-44.00 zone. Our first target is the $49.00 mark. Our time frame is several weeks. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $61 target.

Entry on September 10 at $43.71 /gap higher entry
                           /originally listed at $43.15
Change since picked:     + 0.35   			
Earnings Date          11/10/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.4 million 
Listed on September 10, 2009    


Schlumberger - SLB - close: 59.83 change: +0.02 stop: 54.95

I'm somewhat surprised that given the strength in crude oil today that SLB didn't perform better. More conservative traders may want a stop closer to $56.00 instead. Our first target is $62.50. Our second target is $67.50. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $73 target.

Entry on September 05 at $56.93 /gap higher entry
                             /originally listed at $55.87
Change since picked:     + 2.90   			
Earnings Date          10/23/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       8.7 million 
Listed on September 05, 2009    


TEVA Pharmaceuticals - TEVA - close: 50.78 change: -0.91 stop: 49.75

TEVA displayed relative weakness with a 1.7% decline. Traders bought the dip near $50.00 support. Is this a delayed reaction to the Mylan Labs news about potential competition for MS drugs? Or is this a reaction to Obama's speech on healthcare? I didn't see any big declines in the Tel-Aviv (Israeli) stock exchange so we can't blame it on a drop in the company's homeland market.

The $50.00 level is support so I'd still buy the dip. Our first target is $54.75. Our second target is $59.50. Our time frame is eight to ten weeks.

Entry on    August 17 at $50.50 *triggered                
Change since picked:     + 0.28   			
Earnings Date          11/03/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       5.3 million 
Listed on  August 05, 2009    


Ultra(Long) Financials - UYG - close: 5.79 change: +0.04 stop: 4.90

The UYG managed to hit a new relative high by one cent. The group looks a little overbought so look for a dip toward $5.50. More conservative traders may want to up their stop loss to breakeven at $5.29. I'm not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

Our first target to take profits is at $6.00. Our second target is $6.50. This can be a very volatile security. It's not for the faint of heart.

Entry on September 03 at $ 5.29 
Change since picked:     + 0.50   			
Earnings Date          00/00/00 
Average Daily Volume:      47.8 million 
Listed on September 03, 2009    


BEARISH Play Updates

Electronic Arts - ERTS - close: 18.05 change: +0.06 stop: 19.55

ERTS is still under performing but I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Our first target to take profits is at $17.05. Our second and final target is at $16.15. The P&F chart is currently bearish with a $14 target.

Entry on    August 29 at $18.31 /gap down entry
                              /originally listed at $18.76
Change since picked:     - 0.26   			
Earnings Date          10/29/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       9.3 million 
Listed on  August 29, 2009    


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Citigroup - C - close: 4.12 change: -0.40 stop: 4.29

Our aggressive trade on Citigroup has been stopped out. Shares have been acting strangely the last few days and I've commented several times on the relative weakness and potential for volatility. Today's 1.3 billion shares of volume and 8.8% decline was fueled by news on the government's plan to unload their stock in Citigroup. As part of the bailout to save Citigroup the government converted their debt into common shares of the bank. The Treasury Department now owns about 34% of Citigroup or 7.69 billion shares. The conversion price was $3.25 and at the recent levels the government had a paper profit closer to $10 billion. Now concerns that the government might start dumping stock to collect on their "investment" has pushed Citigroup lower.

We were stopped out a $4.29. This was an aggressive play and the plan was to trade small. Now I'd watch to see if Citigroup finds any support near $3.75 or the $3.50 zone.

chart:

Entry on September 03 at $ 4.87 /gap higher entry
                             /listed at $4.77
Change since picked:     - 0.58<-- stopped @ 4.29 (-11.9%)
Earnings Date          10/16/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.0 billion    
Listed on September 03, 2009    


Altria Group Inc. - MO - close: 17.91 change: -0.08 stop: 17.90

The relative weakness in MO continues. Maybe it's a post-dividend decline. The stock fell to $17.77 intraday. Our stop loss was hit at $17.90.

chart:

Entry on September 05 at $18.50 
Change since picked:     - 0.60 <-- stopped @ 17.90 (-3.2%)
Earnings Date          10/22/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:      15.5 million 
Listed on September 05, 2009