The gap down on Friday morning was painful for the bulls.


BULLISH Play Updates

Airgas Inc. - ARG - close: 47.30 change: +0.44 stop: 44.75

ARG did bounce from the $46.00 level and its 50-dma but the rebound was already rolling over by Friday afternoon. I'd consider waiting for another dip near $46.00 before jumping into bullish positions.

Our first target is $52.45. Our second target is $54.85. More aggressive traders could aim higher. The Point & Figure chart is bullish and predicting a $77 target.

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 25 at $47.25
Change since picked:     + 0.05   			
Earnings Date          10/29/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.5 million 
Listed on September 19, 2009    


BE Aerospace - BEAV - close: 18.29 change: -0.48 stop: 17.90

The correction in BEAV is now testing its 61.8% Fib retracement level of the September rally. It's also nearing potential support near $18 and its 50-dma. The close under its 40-dma is bearish so I'd wait for a rally past $18.75 before considering new positions. Our first target is $22.25.

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 12 at $19.19 
Change since picked:     - 0.90   			
Earnings Date          10/27/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       834 thousand
Listed on September 12, 2009    


Cullen Frost Bankers - CFR - close: 50.38 change: +0.44 stop: 48.90

CFR dipped to its 50-dma and bounced. This actually looks like a new bullish entry point to buy the stock but I'm concerned about the big volume declines and the overall market weakness. If you launch positions here consider a stop loss just under Friday's low. Our first target is $53.00.

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 26 at $50.42 
Change since picked:     - 0.04   			
Earnings Date          10/21/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       419 thousand
Listed on September 26, 2009    


Carpenter Tech. - CRS - close: 22.27 change: -0.36 stop: 21.45

This is it. We've been forecasting a pull back toward support at $22.00 for days. CRS has finally reached the $22 level. Readers can use this move as a new entry point. Naturally more conservative traders may want to wait for a bounce first.

CRS has already hit our first target. Our secondary target is $27.40.

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 05 at $21.45 /gap higher entry
                             /originally listed at $20.92
Change since picked:     + 0.82
                             /1st target hit @ 24.90 (+16.0%)
Earnings Date          10/28/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       536 thousand
Listed on September 05, 2009    


General Electric - GE - close: 15.36 change: -0.61 stop: 14.75

GE gapped down on Friday morning and opened at $15.45. Shares managed to find some support at the 30-dma. Yet I suspect GE will eventually test the $15.00 mark again. I would use a dip or a bounce near $15.00 as a new bullish entry point.

GE has already hit our first target. We're currently aiming for $18.50. I do consider this an aggressive trade so we want to keep our positions small.

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 14 at $15.49 /gap higher entry
                             /originally listed at $15.35
Change since picked:     - 0.13
                            /1st target hit @ 17.25 (+11.3%)
Earnings Date          10/16/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        83 million 
Listed on September 14, 2009    


Gold Fields Ltd - GFI - close: 13.28 change: -0.15 stop: 12.99

Gold futures managed to rebound on Friday but the gold mining stocks had no such luck. Shares of GFI traded down toward the bottom of their short-term trading range. If the market continues lower this week we will probably get stopped out pretty quickly at $12.99. I would hesitate to open new bullish positions here.

Our first target is $15.75. The Point & Figure chart is very bullish with a $21 target.

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 30 at $13.78 
Change since picked:     - 0.50   			
Earnings Date          10/29/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       7.7 million 
Listed on September 30, 2009    


Starwood Hotels - HOT - close: 29.70 change: -1.08 stop: 28.95

The action in HOT has been pretty ugly the last couple of days. I was expecting the $30.00 level to be stronger support and the close under $30.00 is bearish. Volume was about twice the norm on Friday's decline. More conservative traders may want to abandon ship early right here. I am watching the 50-dma near $29.15 to act as the next level of support. A bounce from the 50-dma could be a new bullish entry point but only use very small position sizes.

Our first target is $34.75. Our second target is $37.50. FYI: HOT has above average short interest (more than 15% of the float).

Annotated chart:

Entry on   October 01 at $31.00
Change since picked:     - 1.30   			
Earnings Date          10/27/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.4 million 
Listed on September 19, 2009    


Microsoft - MSFT - close: 24.96 change: +0.08 stop: 23.70 *new*

MSFT spiked down to its 50-dma near $24.50 before bouncing on Friday. I've been suggesting readers look for support in the $24.50-24.00 zone. Technically this bounce from support is an entry point. The September low was $23.76 and I'm raising the stop loss to $23.70. Our target is $27.75.

Annotated chart:

Entry on      July 27 at $23.00
Change since picked:     + 1.96   			
Earnings Date          07/23/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        58 million 
Listed on  July 23, 2009    


NII Holdings - NIHD - close: 28.43 change: -0.43 stop: 24.90

The correction in NIHD continues. Shares hit their 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the September rally on Friday. We're looking to buy a dip at $26.75. If triggered our first target is $31.00. FYI: The P&F chart is very bullish with a $57 target.

Annotated chart:

Entry on September xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 26.75
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          10/22/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.4 million 
Listed on September 23, 2009    


Pride Intl. Inc. - PDE - close: 28.78 change: +0.57 stop: 25.49

I am adjusting our entry strategy on PDE. Our new trigger is at $27.00. Our new stop loss is at $25.49.

If triggered our first target is $30.75. Our second target is $33.45. We'll plan to exit ahead of the late October earnings report.

Annotated chart:

Entry on September xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER @ 27.00
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          10/29/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.7 million 
Listed on September 12, 2009    


Playboy Ent. - PLA - close: 2.92 change: -0.08 stop: 2.69 *new*

The trading in PLA has produced some mixed signals. On the bullish side the stock has continued to ride up its 30-dma. On the bearish side there is a new trend of lower highs. A breakdown under $2.80 would forecast a new leg lower while a move over $3.05 could portend a new leg higher. I am raising our stop loss to $2.69 and I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

Our second target remains the $3.95 level. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a long-term $7.50 target.

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 01 at $ 2.65
Change since picked:     + 0.27 
                            /take profits 09/16/09 (+17.7%)
Earnings Date          11/05/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       370 thousand
Listed on  August 29, 2009    


Pioneer Natural Res. - PXD - cls: 34.85 change: -1.44 stop: 28.95

PXD can be a volatile stock and I'm expecting a correction back toward the $30.00 level. Currently our plan is to buy a dip at $30.50.

If triggered our first target is $34.50. Our second target is $38.50. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $50 target.

Annotated chart:

Entry on September xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 30.50
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          11/04/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.1 million 
Listed on September 26, 2009    


Rockwell Automation - ROK - close: 40.75 change: -0.37 stop: 39.95

ROK is testing support near $40.00. If the S&P 500 continues to fall I would expect ROK to hit our stop loss at $39.95. Broken support near $42 is now new overhead resistance. Wait for a new bounce over $42.00 before considering new positions. Our first target is the $49.00 mark. Our time frame is several weeks.

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 10 at $43.71 /gap higher entry
                           /originally listed at $43.15
Change since picked:     - 2.96   			
Earnings Date          11/10/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.4 million 
Listed on September 10, 2009    


Market Vectors: Steel - SLX - close: 50.30 change: +0.06 stop: 47.49

The SLX also gapped open lower and spiked down to $48.68 before bouncing. While this bounce looks like a new bullish entry point I'd like to see more follow through before initiating new positions.

Our first target is $54.75. Our second target is $59.50. Our time frame is several weeks.

Annotated chart:

Entry on   October 01 at $50.25 *triggered
Change since picked:     + 0.05   			
Earnings Date          00/00/00 
Average Daily Volume:       309 thousand
Listed on September 19, 2009    


BEARISH Play Updates

Eli Lilly & Co - LLY - close: 32.51 change: -0.14 stop: 32.85

LLY is slowly inching back down toward support near $32.00.

I'm suggesting a trigger to open bearish positions at $31.85. If triggered our first target is $30.05. We don't want to hold over LLY's earnings announcement in the latter half of October.

Annotated chart:

Entry on September xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER 31.85
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          10/20/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       6.6 million 
Listed on September 26, 2009    


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Foster Wheeler - FWLT - close: 29.78 change: -0.53 stop: 29.95

We had a relatively tight stop on FWLT and last week's market sell-off was too much for it. Shares of FWLT gapped open lower on Friday at $29.66. Our stop was at $29.95 so the play was closed immediately.

chart:

Picked on September 26 at $ 31.14 *adjusted entry point
Change since picked:       - 1.19<-- stopped @ 29.95 (-3.8%)
Earnings Date            11/04/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        2.9 million  
Listed on September 24, 2009         


Koppers Holdings - KOP - close: 28.81 change: +0.31 stop: 27.90

KOP displayed some relative strength with a 1% gain on Friday. Unfortunately the stock dipped to new lows Friday morning and hit our stop loss at $27.90 before rebounding. KOP's correction has been almost straight down from $33.50 to $28.00 or -16.4% in the last three weeks. KOP is now very short-term oversold. Readers may want to keep it on their watch list for a bounce.

chart:

Entry on September 28 at $30.10
Change since picked:     - 2.20<-- stopped @ 27.90 (-7.3%)
Earnings Date          11/05/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       159 thousand
Listed on September 16, 2009    


Schlumberger - SLB - close: 56.83 change: -0.30 stop: 56.95

No only did SLB breakdown under support at $58.00 and its 50-dma but it gapped open lower at $56.35 on Friday. Our stop loss was at $56.95 so the play was closed immediately. Eventually when the oil service stocks rebound SLB will be an out performer so keep it on your watch list.

chart:

Entry on September 05 at $56.93 /gap higher entry
                             /originally listed at $55.87
Change since picked:     - 0.58 <-- stopped/gap down 56.35 (-1.0%)
                             /1st target hit @ 62.50 (+9.7%)
Earnings Date          10/23/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       8.7 million 
Listed on September 05, 2009    


Ultra(Long) Financials - UYG - close: 5.43 change: -0.01 stop: 5.40

Financials were hit hard with profit taking the last couple of days. Friday morning was rough. The UYG gapped open lower at $5.24, which was under our stop loss at $5.40 so the play was closed immediately.

chart:

Entry on September 03 at $ 5.29 
Change since picked:     - 0.05 <-- stopped @ 5.24/gap down (-0.0%)
                             /1st target hit @ 6.00 (+13.4%)
Earnings Date          00/00/00 
Average Daily Volume:      47.8 million 
Listed on September 03, 2009