BULLISH Play Updates

Apartment Investment & Mgmt - AIV - cls: 14.86 chg: +0.23 stop: 14.19 *new*

AIV dipped toward $14.25 before bouncing. This could be used as a new bullish entry point but take note of our new stop loss at $14.19.

Our first target to take profits is at $16.50. Our second target is $18.50 but we may not have time. The plan is to exit ahead of the October 30th earnings report.

Entry on   October 07 at $14.72 /gap open higher
                            /originally listed at $14.52
Change since picked:     + 0.14   			
Earnings Date          10/30/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.6 million 
Listed on   October 07, 2009    


Airgas Inc. - ARG - close: 50.42 change: +0.97 stop: 48.49 *new*

ARG found support near $48.80 and its 20-dma this morning. The bounce was impressive. I am raising our stop loss to $48.49.

Our first target is $52.45. Our second target is $54.85. More aggressive traders could aim higher. The Point & Figure chart is bullish and predicting a $77 target.

Entry on September 25 at $47.25
Change since picked:     + 3.17  			
Earnings Date          10/29/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.5 million 
Listed on September 19, 2009    


BE Aerospace - BEAV - close: 20.96 change: +0.92 stop: 19.75 *new*

BEAV briefly traded under $20.00 but rallied from the $19.80 level. Shares closed the day up 4.5%. I am raising our stop loss to $19.75.

Our first target is $22.25 and I'd exit about 75% of our position there. We'll put a second target at $24.00. Keep in mind that we'll exit ahead of the October 27th earnings report.

Entry on September 12 at $19.19 
Change since picked:     + 1.77   			
Earnings Date          10/27/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       834 thousand
Listed on September 12, 2009    


Sotheby's - BID - close: 18.18 change: +0.48 stop: 16.80

BID's bounce from $17.45 today is a new bullish entry point. However, readers should note that BID still has a short-term trendline of lower highs and readers may want to wait for the stock to trade above it. A move over $18.50 should do the job.

I would use small positions (about 1/2 to 1/4 your normal trade size) to limit risk. Our first target is $19.95 since the $20.00 mark could be round-number resistance. Our second target is $22.00. Currently the Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $30 target. We do not want to hold over the early November earnings report.

Entry on   October 13 at $18.21 
Change since picked:     - 0.03   			
Earnings Date          11/05/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       861 thousand
Listed on   October 13, 2009    


Cracker Barrel - CBRL - close: 35.53 chg: +0.98 stop: 34.40

We were lucky today. CBRL could have easily stopped us out. Instead the low today was $34.53. The close over $35.00 is technically bullish but I would be very cautious here. Yesterday's decline broke significant support. Our first target is $39.75. The Point & Figure chart is forecasting a $57 target.

Entry on   October 10 at $36.00 
Change since picked:     - 0.47   			
Earnings Date          11/24/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       322 thousand
Listed on   October 10, 2009    


Compania Cervecerias - CCU - close: 36.12 change: +0.12 stop: 34.90

There is no change from my prior comments. Shares of CCU are still consolidating sideways. This is going to be a short-term trade as earnings are coming up in a week or two. Our first target is $39.90. The P&F chart is very bullish with a quadruple top bullish breakout buy signal and a $48 target.

Entry on   October 17 at $36.39 
Change since picked:     - 0.27   			
Earnings Date          10/26/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        56 thousand
Listed on   October 17, 2009    


Capstone Turbine - CPST - close: 1.40 change: +0.02 stop: 1.24

The bounce in CPST today was weak. I would wait for some follow through before considering new positions. Our first target is $1.75. We don't want to hold over the November earnings report. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $2.75 target.

Entry on   October 10 at $ 1.40 
Change since picked:     - 0.00   			
Earnings Date          11/09/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.7 million 
Listed on   October 10, 2009    


Diana Shipping - DSX - close: 14.83 change: -0.16 stop: 13.90

I was looking for DSX to bounce near $14.50. We were close. The low today was $14.31. I would strongly consider raising your stop loss toward today's low. Readers could use this bounce as a new entry point but more cautious readers may want to wait for a move over $15.00.

This is a volatile stock so we want to keep our positions small. We'll use a wide stop loss at $13.90. Our exit target is $18.75.

Entry on   October 21 at $15.25
Change since picked:     - 0.42   			
Earnings Date          11/10/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.9 million 
Listed on   October 20, 2009    


Gold Fields Ltd - GFI - close: 14.18 change: +0.03 stop: 12.99

GFI didn't make much progress today. Shares have been trading sideways near support at $14.00 for three days now. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

Our first target is $15.75. Our second target is $19.75 but that may be a little optimistic given our time frame. We plan to exit ahead of the late October earnings report. The Point & Figure chart is very bullish with a $21 target.

Entry on September 30 at $13.78 
Change since picked:     + 0.37   			
Earnings Date          10/29/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       7.7 million 
Listed on September 30, 2009    


HMS Holdings - HMSY - close: 41.28 change: +0.08 stop: 38.80

I was looking for a dip near $40.00 but HMSY found a bottom today at $40.51. Readers can use the bounce as a new entry point. More conservative traders may want to raise their stops closer to $40.00. Our target is $44.90. We'll plan to exit ahead of the October 30th earnings report.

Entry on   October 17 at $41.55 /gap open higher 
                           /originally listed at $41.30
Change since picked:     - 0.27   			
Earnings Date          10/30/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       227 thousand
Listed on   October 17, 2009    


Jacobs Engineering - JEC - close: 47.15 change: +1.36 stop: 44.75 *new*

JEC continues to show relative strength and the stock has broken out to new three-week highs. Volume was above average on today's rally, which is bullish. Our first target is $49.50. Our second target is $53.00 but we'll plan to exit ahead of the mid November earnings report.

Please note our new stop at $44.75.

Entry on   October 15 at $45.88 
Change since picked:     + 1.25   			
Earnings Date          11/17/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.2 million 
Listed on   October 15, 2009    


Petrobras - PBR - close: 50.34 change: +0.13 stop: 45.95

The bounce in PBR today was a little under whelming. I don't see any changes from my previous comments. More conservative traders may want to take some money off the table now. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

Our first target is $52.50. Our second target is $59.00. The P&F chart is bullish with a $63 target.

Entry on   October 08 at $46.80
Change since picked:     + 3.54  			
Earnings Date          11/13/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:      12.8 million 
Listed on   October 07, 2009    


Patriot Coal - PCX - close: 12.32 change: -0.51 stop: 10.90

PCX is still correcting, which is exactly what we expected it to do. I'm still looking for a drop toward $11.00. If you don't want to endure that sort of volatility then exit now and consider re-entering on a bounce near $11.00. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

PCX has already hit our first target at $13.90. We're currently aiming for $16.75 but we'll exit ahead of the October 27th earnings report.

Entry on   October 05 at $12.14 /gap open higher
                            /originally listed at $11.78
Change since picked:     + 0.18   	
                          /1st target hit @ 13.90 (+14.5%)
Earnings Date          10/27/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       6.4 million 
Listed on   October 05, 2009    


Pride Intl. Inc. - PDE - close: 33.91 change: +0.58 stop: 29.95

PDE is still showing relative strength and set a new closing high for the year. Our exit target is $34.75. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. We'll plan to exit ahead of the October 29th earnings report.

Entry on   October 08 at $31.15
Change since picked:     + 2.76   			
Earnings Date          10/29/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.7 million 
Listed on September 12, 2009    


Playboy Ent. - PLA - close: 3.78 change: +0.12 stop: 3.35

PLA continues to look strong and shares are poised to hit our second target at $3.95 soon.

I'm suggesting a strategy change. Let's plan on selling half our remaining position at $3.95. We'll keep the remainder open with a target at $4.35.

Nimble traders could try new positions with today's bounce and just use a tighter stop loss (aim for $4.35).

Entry on September 01 at $ 2.65
Change since picked:     + 1.13 
                            /take profits 09/16/09 (+17.7%)
Earnings Date          11/05/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       370 thousand
Listed on  August 29, 2009    


VisionChina Media - VISN - close: 10.22 change: +0.21 stop: 8.45 *new*

VISN managed a 2% gain. Volume was the lowest it has been in many days. I am raising our stop loss to $8.45. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. This is a very aggressive trade and we want to keep our positions small.

Our first target is $10.90. Our second target is $13.75. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $15.00 target. My time frame is several weeks (maybe year end).

Entry on   October 07 at $ 8.53 
Change since picked:     + 1.79   			
Earnings Date          10/29/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       407 thousand
Listed on   October 07, 2009    


BEARISH Play Updates

Avis Budget Group - CAR - close: 10.96 change: +0.02 stop: 12.21 *new*

I have to urge some caution here. CAR dipped to $10.39 but the big bounce off its lows looks like a short-term bullish reversal. We can look for potential resistance at $11.50 and $12.00. I am lowering our stop loss to $12.21.

Our target is $9.25. We'll have to keep an eye on the rising 100-dma as potential support. FYI: The P&F chart is forecasting an $8.50 target.

NOTE: CAR has a high amount of short interest, about 9% of the 101 million-share float. That raises the risk of a short squeeze. Readers may want to consider using put options to limit risk. A stop loss doesn't always work.

Entry on   October 20 at $11.25
Change since picked:     - 0.29   			
Earnings Date          11/02/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.8 million 
Listed on   October 17, 2009    


Exide Tech - XIDE - close: 7.31 change: +0.10 stop: 8.05

XIDE erased yesterday's losses. Readers may want to wait for a new failed rally in the $7.50-7.80 zone before considering new bearish positions.

Our target is $6.10. I'm considering a second target at $5.55. The stock can be a little volatile so we'll use a stop loss above resistance at $8.00. The set up makes this an aggressive, higher-risk trade. We want to exit ahead of the early November earnings report.

Entry on   October 21 at $ 7.21 
Change since picked:     + 0.10   			
Earnings Date          11/05/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       545 thousand
Listed on   October 21, 2009    


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Microsoft - MSFT - close: 26.59 change: +0.01 stop: 25.49

Windows 7 has officially launched and MSFT has opened its first retail store ever in Arizona. The stock didn't move much on this news. Investors are waiting to hear the company's earnings report due out Friday morning.

It was our plan to exit ahead of the earnings report tonight at the closing bell.

chart:

Entry on      July 27 at $23.00
Change since picked:     + 3.59 <-- exit @ 26.59 (+15.6%)
Earnings Date          10/23/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        58 million 
Listed on  July 23, 2009