BULLISH Play Updates

HMS Holdings - HMSY - close: 41.00 change: -0.24 stop: 40.40 *new*

HMSY is still holding on to most of its gains. The stock has been trading sideways the last few days. We are down to our last two days. The plan is to exit on Thursday at the closing bell to avoid holding over earnings on Friday morning. I am raising our stop loss to $40.40. Our upside target is $44.90.

Entry on   October 17 at $41.55 /gap open higher 
                           /originally listed at $41.30
Change since picked:     - 0.55   			
Earnings Date          10/30/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       227 thousand
Listed on   October 17, 2009    


Jacobs Engineering - JEC - close: 45.89 change: -0.10 stop: 44.75

Profit taking in JEC has been mild. The lack of any real follow through after yesterday's bearish reversal is also positive. However, if the S&P 500 does break support and accelerates lower we can expect JEC to reverse and follow it lower.

More cautious traders may want to exit early right now. I am not suggesting new bullish positions. Our first target is $49.50. Our second target is $53.00 but we'll plan to exit ahead of the mid November earnings report.

Entry on   October 15 at $45.88 
Change since picked:     + 0.01   			
Earnings Date          11/17/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.2 million 
Listed on   October 15, 2009    


Petrobras - PBR - close: 48.25 change: -0.81 stop: 45.95

PBR is contracting as we expected. Look for support in the $47-46 zone. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

Our first target is $52.50. Our second target is $59.00. The P&F chart is bullish with a $63 target.

Entry on   October 08 at $46.80
Change since picked:     + 1.45  			
Earnings Date          11/13/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:      12.8 million 
Listed on   October 07, 2009    


Pride Intl. Inc. - PDE - close: 31.96 change: -0.03 stop: 31.49 *new*

Profit taking in PDE was very mild today. Unfortunately we're out of time. PDE reports earnings on October 29th. That means we'll need to exit tomorrow (Wednesday) at the closing bell. I am inching up our stop loss to $31.49.

Entry on   October 08 at $31.15
Change since picked:     + 0.81
                         /sell half @ 32.95 (+5.7%)
Earnings Date          10/29/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.7 million 
Listed on September 12, 2009    


UltraShort Russell - TWM - close: 29.67 change: +0.66 stop: 26.30

The TWM continues to climb and volume is rising. The TWM has reached its 50-dam. Our first target is $31.90. Our second target is $34.50.

This is the ultra-short (double short) ETF on the Russell 2000 index that seeks to deliver twice the inverse of the daily performance of the Russell 2000.

Entry on   October 24 at $28.41 
Change since picked:     + 1.26   			
Earnings Date          00/00/00 
Average Daily Volume:       4.2 million 
Listed on   October 24, 2009    


VisionChina Media - VISN - close: 8.99 change: -0.65 stop: 8.65

VISN was overbought and due for a pull back. Shares lost 6.7% and paused at the $9.00 level. This was short-term resistance on the way up and could be short-term support. We are not suggesting new positions at this time.

Over the weekend we adjusted the plan to sell half (shares were at $10.40 Monday morning). Our second and final target is $12.45. This is a very aggressive trade and we wanted to keep our positions small.

Entry on   October 07 at $ 8.53 
Change since picked:     + 0.46
                          /take profits 10/24/09 (+20.3%)
Earnings Date          10/29/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       407 thousand
Listed on   October 07, 2009    


BEARISH Play Updates

Navistar Intl. - NAV - close: 34.78 change: -0.54 stop: 40.25

NAV lost 1.5% and closed under round-number support at $35.00. Our first target is $30.50. Our second target is $27.75.

FYI: We initiated this play with half a position. If NAV bounces to $37.50 we'll double down and make it a full-sized position (position size depends on the size of your trading account and how much you normally risk on each trade).

Entry on   October 24 at $35.41 (buy half a position)
Change since picked:     - 0.63   			
Earnings Date          12/30/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.5 million 
Listed on   October 24, 2009    


NASDAQ OMX Group - NDAQ - close: 18.61 chg: -0.63 stop: 20.65

The correction in NDAQ is accelerating. The stock lost another 3.2% today. Our target to take profits is at $17.85. We'll plan to exit ahead of the November 5th earnings report.

Entry on   October 26 at $19.45
Change since picked:     - 0.84   			
Earnings Date          11/05/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.8 million 
Listed on   October 24, 2009    


Steel Dynamics - STLD - close: 14.35 change: -0.36 stop: 16.21

STLD gave up 2.4% on above average volume. Shares could see a little oversold bounce soon. The stock is nearing potential support near its October lows. Wait for a failed rally near $15.00 before launching new positions. Our target to take profits is at $12.60. Keep an eye on the simple 200-dma near $13.50, which will probably act as short-term support so expect a bounce there.

Entry on   October 24 at $15.03 
Change since picked:     - 0.68   			
Earnings Date          10/19/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       8.0 million 
Listed on   October 24, 2009    


Exide Tech - XIDE - close: 6.61 change: -0.13 stop: 8.05

XIDE tagged support near $6.50 but shares didn't bounce very far. I would still expect some sort of bounce tomorrow as long as the market doesn't fall apart.

I am going to keep our target to exit at $6.10. We'll exit 100%. More aggressive traders could aim lower. This an aggressive, higher-risk trade. We want to exit ahead of the early November earnings report.

Entry on   October 21 at $ 7.21 
Change since picked:     - 0.60   			
Earnings Date          11/05/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       545 thousand
Listed on   October 21, 2009    


Financial SPDRs - XLF - close: 14.60 change: -0.11 stop: 15.51

The XLF has broken technical support at its 50-dma. Our target is $13.10 but that might be a little optimistic. The rising 100-dma and the exponential 200-dma will probably offer some support. A very similar play would be bearish positions on the IYF financial ishares.

Entry on   October 26 at $14.71 (small positions) 
Change since picked:     - 0.11   			
Earnings Date          --/--/-- 
Average Daily Volume:       102 million 
Listed on   October 26, 2009    


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Airgas Inc. - ARG - close: 48.41 change: -0.30 stop: 48.49

ARG tried to bounce today but eventually succumbed to more profit taking. The stock hit our stop at $48.49 closing the play.

chart:

Entry on September 25 at $47.25
Change since picked:     + 1.16 <-- stopped @ 48.49 (+2.4%)
Earnings Date          10/29/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.5 million 
Listed on September 19, 2009    


Sotheby's - BID - close: 16.46 change: -0.60 stop: 16.80

The correction in BID is accelerating and shares hit our stop at $16.80. The plan was to use small position sizes to limit our risk.

chart:

Entry on   October 13 at $18.21 (small pos 1/2 to 1/4)
Change since picked:     - 1.41 <- stopped @ 16.80 (-7.7%)
Earnings Date          11/05/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       861 thousand
Listed on   October 13, 2009    


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Avis Budget Group - CAR - close: 9.19 change: -0.77 stop: 12.05

Target achieved. Our plan was to exit at $9.55. CAR kept right on going and fell to $9.09. The stock settled on technical support at the 100-dma.

chart:

Entry on   October 20 at $11.25
Change since picked:     - 1.70 <--Target hit @ 9.55 (-15.1%)
Earnings Date          11/02/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.8 million 
Listed on   October 17, 2009