BULLISH Play Updates

Reynolds American - RAI - close: 48.48 chg: -0.15 stop: 47.40

RAI held up reasonably well during Friday's decline. The trend is up and while RAI is a "defensive" stock I have no illusions that RAI will keep climbing if the S&P 500 truly starts to breakdown. We have a tight stop loss and the plan was to use small positions to further limit our risk. While nothing has really changed for RAI I'm less inclined to open bullish positions given the market weakness. There is resistance at $50.00 but I'm keeping the target at $53.50.

Annotated chart:

Entry on   October 29 at $48.63 (small positions)
Change since picked:     - 0.15   			
Earnings Date          10/22/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.5 million 
Listed on   October 29, 2009    


UltraShort Russell - TWM - close: 32.10 change: +1.68 stop: 28.49

The Russell 2000 index continues to under perform. On Friday the $RUT lost 3.0% but it closed at technical support with the 100-dma. The index is oversold and I would expect a bounce. That means we could see a pull back in the TWM. More conservative traders may want to exit 100% right here. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

The TWM has already hit our first target. We're currently aiming for our second and final target at $34.50.

This is the ultra-short (double short) ETF on the Russell 2000 index that seeks to deliver twice the inverse of the daily performance of the Russell 2000.

Annotated chart:

Entry on   October 24 at $28.41 
Change since picked:     + 3.69
                            /1st target hit @ 31.90 (+12.2%)
Earnings Date          00/00/00 
Average Daily Volume:       4.2 million 
Listed on   October 24, 2009    


BEARISH Play Updates

Navistar Intl. - NAV - close: 33.14 change: -0.81 stop: 38.05 *new*

I couldn't find any news behind the NAV's spike higher on Friday morning. Shares immediately reversed and the trend is still down. I'm inching our stop down to $38.05. More conservative traders may want to use a stop closer to $36.00 instead. Our first target is $30.50. Our second target is $27.75.

FYI: We initiated this play with half a position.

Annotated chart:

Entry on   October 24 at $35.41 (buy half a position)
Change since picked:     - 2.27   			
Earnings Date          12/30/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.5 million 
Listed on   October 24, 2009    


NASDAQ OMX Group - NDAQ - close: 18.06 chg: -0.90 stop: 20.65

NDAQ completely erased Thursday's bounce. The stock has sunk to new four-month lows and looks poised to break down under the $18.00 level. Our target is $17.85. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower but keep in mind that I would not hold over the November 5th earnings report.

Annotated chart:

Entry on   October 26 at $19.45
Change since picked:     - 1.39   			
Earnings Date          11/05/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.8 million 
Listed on   October 24, 2009    


Netlogic Micro. - NETL - close: 38.01 change: -1.40 stop: 40.25 *new*

We only have two days left for this NETL play. The company is due to report earnings on November 3rd after the market's closing bell. We will plan to exit on Tuesday at the close to avoid holding over earnings. I am raising our target to exit to $35.55. I'm lowering our stop loss to $40.25.

Annotated chart:

Entry on   October 27 at $39.53 
Change since picked:     - 1.52   			
Earnings Date          11/03/09 (confirmed)    <-- amc -->
Average Daily Volume:       392 thousand
Listed on   October 27, 2009    


Steel Dynamics - STLD - close: 13.39 change: -0.56 stop: 15.26 *new*

Steel stocks have been real under performers in the market lately. Shares of STLD broke down under technical support at the 200-dma. While the short-term trend is bearish the stock is growing oversold and due for a bounce. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Please note our new stop loss at $15.26. Our target to take profits is at $12.60.

Annotated chart:

Entry on   October 24 at $15.03 
Change since picked:     - 1.64   			
Earnings Date          10/19/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       8.0 million 
Listed on   October 24, 2009    


Western Digital Corp. - WDC - close: 33.68 change: -1.33 stop: 35.65 *new*

If you missed Thursday's entry point I would still open new positions now. WDC has produced a failed rally near $35.00. I am lowering our stop loss down to $35.65.

I suggested traders start positions about 1/4 (25%) of their normal trade size. I would actually add to positions (another 1/4 position) at these levels. Our initial target is the $30.50 mark. Our second target is $27.75.

Annotated chart:

Entry on   October 28 at $33.58 
Change since picked:     + 0.10   			
Earnings Date          10/22/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       4.2 million 
Listed on   October 28, 2009    


Financial SPDRs - XLF - close: 14.05 change: -0.69 stop: 15.51

The financial stocks were big under performers on Friday and the XLF completely erased Thursday's bounce. This ETF is now testing potential support near $14.00. Keep a wary eye on the 100-dma and exponential 200-dma, which might also offer some support. Our target is $13.10.

Annotated chart:

Entry on   October 26 at $14.71 (small positions) 
Change since picked:     - 0.66   			
Earnings Date          --/--/-- 
Average Daily Volume:       102 million 
Listed on   October 26, 2009    


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Dril-Quip Inc. - DRQ - close: 48.59 change: -1.76 stop: 48.60

DRQ completely erased Thursday's gains. Looks like I should have followed my own suggestion Thursday night and just sat still instead of adding new trades. The stock gapped open lower at $49.68 and quickly hit our stop loss at $48.60 closing the play. Shares are on the verge of breaking technical support at the 50-dma. Our plan was to use small position sizes to limit our risk even further.

chart:

Entry on   October 29 at $49.68 (small positions)/gap down entry
                       /originally listed at $50.35
Change since picked:     - 1.08 <-- stopped @ 48.60 (-2.1%)
Earnings Date          11/05/09 (unconfirmed) 
Average Daily Volume:       348 thousand
Listed on   October 29, 2009    


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

SL Green Realty - SLG - close: 38.76 change: -0.65 stop: 43.65

The short-term trend is still down for SLG but the late day rally on Friday is worrisome. I couldn't find any news to explain the bounce on Friday afternoon. The move looks like a short-term bullish reversal. Instead of waiting for confirmation on the bullish reversal I'm suggesting an early exit. There are too many bearish candidates to hang on to SLG.

chart:

Entry on   October 27 at $39.59 
Change since picked:     - 0.83 <-- early exit @ 38.76 (-2.0%)
Earnings Date          10/26/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.1 million 
Listed on   October 27, 2009