BULLISH Play Updates

Reynolds American - RAI - close: 48.17 chg: -0.21 stop: 47.40

The market looks poised for a little oversold bounce. If the RAI doesn't show some strength tomorrow I'll probably close it early. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. There is resistance at $50.00 but I'm keeping the target at $53.50.

Entry on   October 29 at $48.63 (small positions)
Change since picked:     - 0.46   			
Earnings Date          10/22/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.5 million 
Listed on   October 29, 2009    


UltraShort Russell - TWM - close: 31.23 change: -0.97 stop: 28.49

The market is starting to see an oversold bounce. I would expect the bounce to continue. That means the TWM should correct a little. We could expect a dip back toward $30-29 before things reverse again. More conservative traders may want to exit early.

TWM has already hit our first target. We're currently aiming for $34.00. I am not suggesting new positions at this time but the TWM might be an ETF we trade in an out of over the next few weeks.

Entry on   October 24 at $28.41 
Change since picked:     + 2.83
                            /1st target hit @ 31.90 (+12.2%)
Earnings Date          00/00/00 
Average Daily Volume:       4.2 million 
Listed on   October 24, 2009    


BEARISH Play Updates

Emerging Market iShares - EEM - close: 38.19 change: +0.06 stop: 40.25

The bounce in the EEM was pretty small today. Shares are still holding on to support near the $37.50 zone. I would expect a small oversold bounce so look for a rise toward $40.00. Readers can launch new positions on the rebound or wait for it to roll over first. Our plan called for very small positions (25% of normal size).

Our first target to take profits is at $33.55. Our second target is $31.00.

Entry on   October 31 at $38.13 /gap open entry
                   /originally listed at $37.57 (1/4 position size)
Change since picked:     + 0.06   			
Earnings Date          --/--/-- 
Average Daily Volume:        77 million 
Listed on   October 31, 2009    


Navistar Intl. - NAV - close: 34.92 change: +1.43 stop: 38.05

NAV is also seeing an oversold bounce. Shares rallied 4.2% but the trend is still down. Look for resistance near $36.00 and near $38.00. More conservative traders may want to use a stop closer to $36.00 instead. Our first target is $30.50. Our second target is $27.75.

FYI: We initiated this play with half a position.

Entry on   October 24 at $35.41 (buy half a position)
Change since picked:     - 0.49   			
Earnings Date          12/30/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.5 million 
Listed on   October 24, 2009    


Ross Stores - ROST - close: 45.25 change: +0.46 stop: 46.55

ROST continues to bounce even though the RLX retail index closed in negative territory. The stock is near round-number resistance at $45.00 and today's close above that level is short-term bullish. I would watch the 50-dma near $46.50 as overhead resistance. Look for a failed rally before launching new positions. Our target to exit is $40.25. We will plan to close this play ahead of the earnings report.

Entry on   October 31 at $44.29 /gap open entry
                           /originally listed at $44.01
Change since picked:     + 0.96   			
Earnings Date          11/19/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.1 million 
Listed on   October 31, 2009    


Seagate Technology - STX - close: 14.34 change: +0.18 stop: 15.55

The oversold bounce in STX continues. I'm suggesting readers focus on the $15.00 level, which should be resistance. A failed rally there would be a new entry point for bearish positions. The plan was to use small positions (50%) to limit risk. Our first target is $12.05. Our second target is $10.50.

Entry on   October 31 at $13.95 (small positions 1/2)
Change since picked:     + 0.39   			
Earnings Date          10/21/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        13 million 
Listed on   October 31, 2009    


Toro Co. - TTC - close: 39.19 change: +2.18 stop: 38.25

Wow! TTC really out performed the market with a 5.8% gain. The sharp rally looks like short covering. I didn't see any specific news to account for the rally but it could be a reaction to the Black & Decker and Stanley Works merger that was announced last night. I warned readers that TTC looked ready to bounce. That's why I suggested a trigger to open positions.

Thus we're still on the sidelines. Our trigger to open bearish positions is at $35.75. However, if TTC closes over $40.00 it would be a bullish development and we might want to switch directions. If triggered at $35.75 our target is $30.50. I am suggesting small positions to limit risk.

Entry on  November xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 35.75
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          12/08/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       293 thousand
Listed on  November 31, 2009    


Western Digital Corp. - WDC - close: 34.34 change: +0.22 stop: 35.65

WDC, much like STX, is slowly trying to bounce. The stock should have resistance near $35.00 and its 50-dma (at 35.54).

I suggested traders start positions about 1/4 (25%) of their normal trade size. I would actually add to positions (another 1/4 position) at these levels. Our initial target is the $30.50 mark. Our second target is $27.75.

Entry on   October 28 at $33.58 
Change since picked:     + 0.76   			
Earnings Date          10/22/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       4.2 million 
Listed on   October 28, 2009    


Financial SPDRs - XLF - close: 14.20 change: +0.04 stop: 15.51

Financials were initially weak. A worse than expected earnings report from UBS and news of an additional $40 billion plus bailout for the Royal Bank of Scotland cast a bearish shadow across the sector. Yet banks managed to recover and close in positive territory. The group is a little oversold and due for a bounce. Watch for resistance near $15.00. Our target is $13.10.

Entry on   October 26 at $14.71 (small positions) 
Change since picked:     - 0.51   			
Earnings Date          --/--/-- 
Average Daily Volume:       102 million 
Listed on   October 26, 2009    


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Netlogic Micro. - NETL - close: 38.41 change: +0.09 stop: 40.25

Morgan Stanley downgraded the semiconductor sector this morning. Yet NETL managed to rally in spite of the news. Today was our last day to hold this stock. The plan was to exit at the closing bell to avoid earnings. The company beat expectations and shares are trading near $40 after hours.

chart:

Entry on   October 27 at $39.53 
Change since picked:     - 1.12 <-- early exit @ 38.41 (-2.8%)
Earnings Date          11/03/09 (confirmed)    <-- amc -->
Average Daily Volume:       392 thousand
Listed on   October 27, 2009    


Steel Dynamics - STLD - close: 13.82 change: +0.34 stop: 15.26

STLD managed a strong oversold bounce today. The move produced a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern. I'm suggesting an early exit now. However, I'd keep STLD on your watch list. A failed rally in the $15-16 zone might be a new bearish entry point.

chart:

Entry on   October 24 at $15.03 
Change since picked:     - 1.21 <-- early exit @ 13.82 (-8.0%)
Earnings Date          10/19/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       8.0 million 
Listed on   October 24, 2009