Stocks trimmed their gains with a late-day slide. The market's oversold bounce is already stumbling.


BULLISH Play Updates

Southern Copper Corp. - PCU - close: 33.04 change: +0.33 stop: 30.95

Uh-oh! The action in PCU was worrisome today. Shares rallied toward $34.00 and reversed. The stock hit $33.93, which was enough to hit our trigger at $33.80. The play is open. The bad news is that PCU gave back most of its gains. At this time I would look for another bounce in the $31.00-32.00 zone before launching new positions. Our target is $39.50.

Commodity-related stocks are bound to be volatile with the dollar moving so much. I'm suggesting small positions (25% to 50% your normal size).

chart:

Entry on  November 04 at $33.80
Change since picked:     - 0.76   			
Earnings Date          10/22/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.5 million 
Listed on  November 03, 2009    


UltraShort Russell - TWM - close: 32.08 change: +0.84 stop: 28.49

The small cap Russell 2000 index under performed the rest of the market on Wednesday. That's good news for our TWM trade although I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

TWM has already hit our first target. We're currently aiming for $34.00.

Entry on   October 24 at $28.41 
Change since picked:     + 3.67
                            /1st target hit @ 31.90 (+12.2%)
Earnings Date          00/00/00 
Average Daily Volume:       4.2 million 
Listed on   October 24, 2009    


BEARISH Play Updates

Emerging Market iShares - EEM - close: 38.90 change: +0.71 stop: 40.25

The EEM rebounded toward last Thursday's high but struggled once it got there. Coincidentally this was also a rise toward the 30-dma. I warned readers to expect a bounce. I would consider new positions here. Our plan called for very small positions (25% of normal size).

Our first target to take profits is at $33.55. Our second target is $31.00.

Entry on   October 31 at $38.13 /gap open entry
                   /originally listed at $37.57 (1/4 position size)
Change since picked:     + 0.77   			
Earnings Date          --/--/-- 
Average Daily Volume:        77 million 
Listed on   October 31, 2009    


Navistar Intl. - NAV - close: 34.19 change: -0.73 stop: 38.05

Shares of NAV failed at resistance near $36.00 again. This looks like a new bearish entry point. More conservative traders may want to use a stop closer to today's high of $36.25. Our first target is $30.50. Our second target is $27.75.

FYI: We initiated this play with half a position.

Entry on   October 24 at $35.41 (buy half a position)
Change since picked:     - 1.22   			
Earnings Date          12/30/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.5 million 
Listed on   October 24, 2009    


Ross Stores - ROST - close: 44.88 change: -0.37 stop: 46.55

Thursday could be a volatile session for retailers. Many of the major retailers will report their October same-store sales figures. Preliminary reports and estimates are suggesting retailers will show improvement and a lot of that improvement will be due to easy comparisons to October 2008, which was terrible.

Shares of ROST appear to have produced a bearish failed rally pattern under $46.00 today. This looks like a new bearish entry point but readers may want to wait until after we see how the market reacts to the same-store sales news. Our target to exit is $40.25. We will plan to close this play ahead of the earnings report.

Entry on   October 31 at $44.29 /gap open entry
                           /originally listed at $44.01
Change since picked:     + 0.59   			
Earnings Date          11/19/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.1 million 
Listed on   October 31, 2009    


Seagate Technology - STX - close: 14.72 change: +0.38 stop: 15.55

STX rallied toward resistance near $15.00 and rolled over just as expected. Unfortunately we may be in trouble with Cisco Systems (CSCO) reported strong earnings after the bell tonight. Shares of CSCO are up after hours and could fuel a rally in technology stocks tomorrow.

I remain bearish on STX but we're at risk of getting stopped out on an opening pop higher. Look to see if resistance near $15.00 or $15.50 holds and then I'd launch new plays if we don't get stopped out. The plan was to use small positions (50%) to limit risk. Our first target is $12.05. Our second target is $10.50.

Entry on   October 31 at $13.95 (small positions 1/2)
Change since picked:     + 0.77   			
Earnings Date          10/21/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        13 million 
Listed on   October 31, 2009    


Toro Co. - TTC - close: 38.52 change: -0.67 stop: 38.25

The bounce in TTC didn't last long. Shares are already struggling with the $39.50 zone. I'm sticking to our plan, which is to wait for a drop under support with a trigger to open bearish plays at $35.75.

If triggered at $35.75 our target is $30.50. I am suggesting small positions to limit risk.

Entry on  November xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 35.75
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          12/08/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       293 thousand
Listed on  November 31, 2009    


Western Digital Corp. - WDC - close: 34.88 change: +0.54 stop: 35.65

WDC and STX are in the same boat. The rally failed and shares look ready to move lower. Yet CSCO's earnings after the bell tonight could fuel a rally in technology Thursday morning. I'd wait and watch for any reaction tomorrow morning before launching new positions.

I suggested traders start positions about 1/4 (25%) of their normal trade size. Our initial target is the $30.50 mark. Our second target is $27.75.

Entry on   October 28 at $33.58 
Change since picked:     + 1.30   			
Earnings Date          10/22/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       4.2 million 
Listed on   October 28, 2009    


Financial SPDRs - XLF - close: 14.01 change: -0.19 stop: 15.51

Financials were some of the worst performers today. The banking indices dropped more than 2%. The XLF reversed under $14.50. While the trend is down I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. The XLF has potential support at its rising 100-dma and exponential 200-dma. Our target is $13.10.

Entry on   October 26 at $14.71 (small positions) 
Change since picked:     - 0.70   			
Earnings Date          --/--/-- 
Average Daily Volume:       102 million 
Listed on   October 26, 2009    


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Reynolds American - RAI - close: 48.10 chg: -0.07 stop: 47.40

We're exiting RAI early. The stock is losing momentum and looks poised to correct lower. I'm suggesting we exit now to cut our losses.

chart:

Entry on   October 29 at $48.63 (small positions)
Change since picked:     - 0.53 <-- exit early @ 48.10 (-1.0%)
Earnings Date          10/22/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.5 million 
Listed on   October 29, 2009