BULLISH Play Updates

Southern Copper Corp. - PCU - close: 34.64 change: +1.09 stop: 30.95

Commodity stocks were stronger today as the U.S. dollar fell to its 2009 lows. PCU has broken through short-term resistance near $34.00 and should be poised for a run at the $36.00 level. Our target is $39.50.

I suggested small positions (25% to 50% your normal size).

Entry on  November 04 at $33.80
Change since picked:     + 0.84   			
Earnings Date          10/22/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.5 million 
Listed on  November 03, 2009    


Polaris Industries - PII - close: 46.41 change: +1.90 stop: 41.80

It didn't take long for PII to breakout past the $45.00 level. Shares hit our trigger to buy the stock at $45.15 this morning. PII may end up filling the gap higher. If you're not inclined to chase it here then wait for a dip back toward $44.75.

Our target to exit is $49.65. I consider this an aggressive play and suggest smaller position sizes.

chart:

Entry on  November 09 at $45.15
Change since picked:     + 1.26   			
Earnings Date          01/28/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       516 thousand
Listed on  November 07, 2009    


Travelers Companies - TRV - close: 53.60 change: +1.70 stop: 49.75

We were expecting a pull back toward $51.00 before seeing the rally continue. Today's widespread market rally has certainly changed things. The breakout past $52.00 is bullish. I am suggesting readers adjust the trigger to buy TRV from $51.00 to $52.15. We'll move our stop loss to $49.75. Our new exit target is $57.40.

Entry on  November xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 52.15
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          01/27/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       5.3 million 
Listed on  November 07, 2009    


UltraShort Russell - TWM - close: 28.81 change: -1.17 stop: 28.49

The TWM (an inverse ETF) lost 3.9% as the market rallied higher. If there is any follow through with the market rally tomorrow then we'll probably get stopped out at $28.49.

I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. TWM has already hit our first target. We're currently aiming for $34.00.

Entry on   October 24 at $28.41 
Change since picked:     + 0.40
                            /1st target hit @ 31.90 (+12.2%)
Earnings Date          00/00/00 
Average Daily Volume:       4.2 million 
Listed on   October 24, 2009    


Yanzhou Coal Mining - YZC - close: 18.12 change: +0.85 stop: 14.95

We were looking to buy a pull back in YZC. The stock shot higher instead hitting new 2009 highs with a 4.9% rally on Monday. We did not want to chase it on Friday and we certainly don't want to chase it today. I'll keep our trigger to buy a dip at $16.35 for now but we'll probably end up adjusting it higher. Our target is $19.95. Our time frame is several weeks.

Entry on  November xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 16.35
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          04/10/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       418 thousand
Listed on  November 07, 2009    


BEARISH Play Updates

Navistar Intl. - NAV - close: 35.66 change: +1.11 stop: 36.55 *new*

NAV was not immune to the market's strength today and shares gained 3.2%. I am lowering our stop loss to $36.55 to reduce our exposure. Our first target is $30.50. Our second target is $27.75.

FYI: We initiated this play with half a position.

Entry on   October 24 at $35.41 (buy half a position)
Change since picked:     + 0.25   			
Earnings Date          12/30/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.5 million 
Listed on   October 24, 2009    


Financial SPDRs - XLF - close: 14.82 change: +0.51 stop: 15.21 *new*

The short-covering rally in the financials was pretty sharp today. The XLF managed a 3.5% gain. The close over its 50-dma is bullish but I'm not convinced there is any strength behind the move yet. However, we'll try and reduce our risk by adjusting the stop loss down to $15.21. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. The XLF has potential support at its rising 100-dma and exponential 200-dma. Our target is $13.10.

Entry on   October 26 at $14.71 (small positions) 
Change since picked:     + 0.11   			
Earnings Date          --/--/-- 
Average Daily Volume:       102 million 
Listed on   October 26, 2009    


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Emerging Market iShares - EEM - close: 41.11 change: +1.46 stop: 40.25

It was a rough day for the bears. Markets around the world were in rally mode. Shares of the EEM gapped open higher at $40.37, which was above our stop loss so the play was closed immediately. There is additional resistance near $41.50 so readers may want to keep EEM on their watch list.

chart:

Entry on   October 31 at $38.13 /gap open entry
                   /originally listed at $37.57 (1/4 position size)
Change since picked:     + 2.24 <--stopped @ 40.37 (+5.8%)
Earnings Date          --/--/-- 
Average Daily Volume:        77 million 
Listed on   October 31, 2009    


Ross Stores - ROST - close: 46.28 change: +0.66 stop: 46.55

ROST did not hit our stop loss but the close over $46.00 is bullish. I'm suggesting an early exit now to cut our losses early.

chart:

Entry on   October 31 at $44.29 /gap open entry
                           /originally listed at $44.01
Change since picked:     + 1.99 <-- early exit @ 46.28 (+4.4%)
Earnings Date          11/19/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.1 million 
Listed on   October 31, 2009    


Seagate Technology - STX - close: 15.74 change: +0.43 stop: 15.55

The rally in technology stocks carried STX to a 2.8% gain. The stock hit our stop loss at $15.55 early this morning. The October breakdown under its 50-dma and the $14.00 level now looks like a bear trap.

chart:

Entry on   October 31 at $13.95 (small positions 1/2)
Change since picked:     + 1.60 <-- stopped @ 15.55 (+11.4%)
Earnings Date          10/21/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        13 million 
Listed on   October 31, 2009    


Toro Co. - TTC - close: 39.94 change: -0.09 stop: 38.25

I am dropping TTC as a bearish candidate. The stock's bounce from support has now closed over resistance near $40.00. Our trigger was never hit so the play was never opened.

chart:

Entry on  November xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 35.75
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			*never opened*
Earnings Date          12/08/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       293 thousand
Listed on  November 31, 2009