BULLISH Play Updates

Best Buy Inc. - BBY - close: 41.88 change: +0.04 stop: 39.40

I would have expected a better performance out of BBY given the strength in the retailers on Friday. This week we're going to see a lot more earnings reports out of the retail sector. That's a doubled-edged sword for us but the recent tone has been positive for the group in spite of falling consumer sentiment. No one has ever accused the stock market of being logical!

I'm still bullish on BBY. While I would consider new positions here I'd prefer to launch positions on a dip near $41.00 or $40.00. Our first target is $46.00. Our second target is $49.80. Our time frame is several weeks.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  November 10 at $42.20
Change since picked:     - 0.32   			
Earnings Date          12/15/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       5.1 million 
Listed on  November 09, 2009    


Baker Hughes Inc. - BHI - close: 41.45 change: +0.02 stop: 40.49

Technically BHI is testing support near its exponential 200-dma. Yet energy stocks could be in trouble. Crude oil looks like it's about to correct lower. With this potential weakness in crude I'm suggesting traders avoid new positions in BHI. If you do choose to buy this dip near support I would use very small positions. Our first target is $47.00. Our second target is $49.85.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  November 09 at $43.06 
Change since picked:     - 2.15   			
Earnings Date          01/28/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       5.6 million 
Listed on  November 09, 2009    


Potlatch Corp. - PCH - close: 29.51 change: +0.23 stop: 27.95

On Friday traders bought the dip in PCH near $29.00 and its 10-dma. More aggressive traders might want to go ahead and jump in right here. I'm suggesting readers stick to our plan and wait for a breakout.

I'm suggesting a trigger to buy PCH at $30.30. If triggered our first target to take profits is at $33.60. We will cautiously set a secondary target at $35.75. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $56 target.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  November xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 30.30
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          02/11/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:           thousand
Listed on  November 11, 2009    


Southern Copper Corp. - PCU - close: 34.60 change: +0.65 stop: 31.75

A drop in the dollar is bullish for commodities but the price of copper really didn't move that much last week. Shares of PCU peaked near $35.75. Hopefully that's not a new lower high. The larger trend is up but I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is $39.50.

I suggested small positions (25% to 50% your normal size).

Annotated chart:

Entry on  November 04 at $33.80
Change since picked:     + 0.80   			
Earnings Date          10/22/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.5 million 
Listed on  November 03, 2009    


Polaris Industries - PII - close: 45.22 change: -0.04 stop: 42.40 *new*

Traders bought the dip near PII's 30-dma on Friday. This intraday bounce looks like a new bullish entry point. However, I would remain very cautious in launching new bullish positions with the S&P 500 still under the 1100 level. The 50-dma has risen to $42.76. I'm raising our stop loss to $42.40.

Our target to exit is $49.65. I consider this an aggressive play and suggest smaller position sizes.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  November 09 at $45.15
Change since picked:     + 0.07   			
Earnings Date          01/28/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       516 thousand
Listed on  November 07, 2009    


Travelers Companies - TRV - close: 53.28 change: +0.14 stop: 49.75

We are still waiting for TRV to pull back and retest prior resistance. I'm suggesting readers use a trigger to buy the dip at $52.15. If triggered our target is $57.40.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  November xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 52.15
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          01/27/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       5.3 million 
Listed on  November 07, 2009    


Wyndham Worldwide - WYN - close: 18.94 change: +0.13 stop: 16.40

WYN is still trading near its 2009 highs. I would prefer to launch new positions on a dip or a bounce near the $18.50 or $18.00 level. Technical support at the 50-dma has risen to $16.85.

The $20.00 level could offer some round-number resistance but I'm setting our first target at $21.00. FYI: The point & figure chart is bullish with a $27 target. Our time frame is several weeks.

The plan was to use small positions (1/2 a position).

Annotated chart:

Entry on  November 10 at $18.88 (1/2 position) /gap open higher
Change since picked:     + 0.06   			
Earnings Date          02/11/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.5 million 
Listed on  November 10, 2009    


Yanzhou Coal Mining - YZC - close: 18.31 change: +0.33 stop: 14.95

Shares of YZC remain overbought and we don't want to chase it at these levels. If we don't see a pull back in the next couple of days I'll drop it and move it to my watch list.

Currently the plan is to buy a dip at $16.35. Our target is $19.95. Our time frame is several weeks.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  November xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 16.35
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          04/10/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       418 thousand
Listed on  November 07, 2009    


BEARISH Play Updates

Activision-Blizzard - ATVI - close: 11.69 change: +0.25 stop: 11.85

I've heard nothing but positive things about ATVI this past week with its latest Call of Duty game setting all-time records for sales in the first 24 hours. There has been no follow through on the November 10th bearish reversal and we are at risk of getting stopped out if shares show any more strength.

I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. I'd probably wait for a new close under $11.50 or its 200-dma before considering new bearish trades.

Our first target is $10.10. Our second target is $9.25. Our time frame is several weeks.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  November 11 at $11.20
Change since picked:     + 0.49   			
Earnings Date          02/04/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:      17.3 million 
Listed on  November 10, 2009    


Exelon Crop. - EXC - close: 46.61 change: +0.54 stop: 47.71

EXC managed a bounce from the $46.00 level but trading on Friday produced an "inside day". I don't see any changes from my Thursday comments. I'm suggesting a trigger to open bearish positions at $45.75, which would be a new relative low. If triggered our target is $40.50. Our time frame is several weeks.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  November xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 45.75
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          01/21/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       4.4 million 
Listed on  November 12, 2009    


Maxim Integrated - MXIM - close: 18.02 change: +0.25 stop: 18.55

MXIM delivered a little bit of a bounce on Friday but the bearish reversal from Thursday is still in effect. I would still launch new positions here. More conservative traders might want to wait for a little more downside momentum. Consider looking for a new decline under $17.60 before initiating new positions. Our first target is $16.25 (or the simple 200-dma, which one MXIM hits first). More aggressive traders may want to aim for the $14.25-14.00 zone.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  November 12 at $17.77 
Change since picked:     + 0.25   			
Earnings Date          01/28/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       5.3 million 
Listed on  November 12, 2009    


Navistar Intl. - NAV - close: 35.64 change: +0.23 stop: 36.55

Shares of NAV continue to drift sideways. The stock's consolidation is narrowing sharply and a breakout is imminent. Normally a stock breaks in the direction of the prevailing trend, which in this case is down. I am suggesting new positions on a decline under $34.50. More conservative traders might want to inch their stops down toward $36.00 or $36.26. The high on November 4th was $36.25. Our first target is $30.50. Our second target is $27.75.

FYI: We initiated this play with half a position.

Annotated chart:

Entry on   October 24 at $35.41 (buy half a position)
Change since picked:     + 0.23   			
Earnings Date          12/30/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.5 million 
Listed on   October 24, 2009    


Financial SPDRs - XLF - close: 14.66 change: -0.03 stop: 15.21

The XLF's decline in the last two days did not see much volume. I see the lack of volume as a caution flag for us. Of course volume was falling on the oversold bounce too. I hesitate to launch new positions with the S&P 500 still hovering at the 1100 level. Our first target is $13.10. Our second target is $12.25.

Annotated chart:

Entry on   October 26 at $14.71 (small positions) 
Change since picked:     - 0.05   			
Earnings Date          --/--/-- 
Average Daily Volume:       102 million 
Listed on   October 26, 2009