Friday was a rough day for stocks but some of our bearish trades are offering a new entry point.


BULLISH Play Updates

Analogic Corp. - ALOG - close: 40.19 change: -1.34 stop: 38.99

ALOG gapped open lower like most of the market on Friday. Selling pressure pushed the stock toward round-number support at $40.00. A bounce from here can be used as a new bullish entry point. More cautious traders might want to tighten their stops closer to $40.00. Our first target to take profits is at $44.90. I'd aim higher but ALOG is due to report earnings on December 9th and we don't want to hold over the report. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $54 target.

FYI: The market closed early on Friday and in after hours trading I see a spike down to $30.00. I think this is just a bad tick as I see no news to suggest such a move in the stock.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  November 25 at $41.51 
Change since picked:     + 0.02   			
Earnings Date          12/09/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:      41.5 thousand
Listed on  November 24, 2009    


Best Buy Inc. - BBY - close: 42.83 change: -0.43 stop: 39.85

Reports from the retailers were generally positive. A few diehard shoppers started camping out on Wednesday afternoon to save their place in line for Black Friday. Before Thanksgiving analysts were estimating that over 130 million people in the U.S. would go shopping on Friday. Additional estimates including online shopping jumped to 170 million people. Crowds seemed to be larger at BBY stores this year with netbooks, laptops, and flat-screen TVs the hot items. Shares of BBY didn't suffer that much during Friday's market volatility as traders bought the dip at $42.26 and the stock closed down just 1%.

I remain bullish on BBY but I'm cautious on launching new positions. There's going to be a lot of post-game analysis of how the retailers did this weekend. Let's wait and see what the analysts say about BBY. Our first target is $46.00. Our second target is $49.80. Our time frame is several weeks.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  November 10 at $42.20
Change since picked:     + 0.63   			
Earnings Date          12/15/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       5.1 million 
Listed on  November 09, 2009    


Bank of Hawaii - BOH - close: 44.84 change: -0.88 stop: 43.90

Financial stocks were some of the worst performers on Friday. Investors were worried about which banks might have exposure to Dubai World's debt. Shares of BOH gapped open lower but traders bought the dip near its rising 30-dma. The $44.00 level should offer additional support but I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. The intraday bounce on Friday was rolling over into the weekend.

Our first target to take profits is at $49.85. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $59 target.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  November 18 at $46.20 
Change since picked:     - 1.36   			
Earnings Date          01/25/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       424 thousand
Listed on  November 17, 2009    


ENERSYS - ENS - close: 22.92 change: -0.57 stop: 22.40

Readers may want to seriously consider an early exit from ENS. The stock almost hit our stop loss on Friday with a dip to $22.50. Intraday shares produced a little double top pattern. The bulls could argue that Friday doesn't count given the lowest volume day of the year for stocks. I am very cautious here. If the S&P 500 sees any follow through lower we'll probably get stopped out of ENS. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

Our first target is $27.00. Our second target is $29.75. Our time frame is several weeks.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  November 16 at $24.20
Change since picked:     - 1.28   			
Earnings Date          02/10/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       530 thousand
Listed on  November 14, 2009    


Johnson & Johnson - JNJ - close: 62.89 change: -0.41 stop: 59.90

Traders bought the dip in JNJ near the $62.00 level. I'm still bullish on JNJ but if the stock market rolls over we have to expect JNJ will follow. I'd be tempted to buy a bounce from $61.00. Keep positions small. The $65.00 level might offer some resistance but our target first target is $67.50.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  November 23 at $63.05
Change since picked:     - 0.16   			
Earnings Date          01/26/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:      12.6 million 
Listed on  November 21, 2009    


Potlatch Corp. - PCH - close: 28.54 change: -0.77 stop: 27.95

PCH is another stock that readers may want to give up on. I would seriously consider an early exit right here. The stock is clinging to technical support at its 100-dma and should have some support near $28.00 but I wouldn't launch new positions at this time.

Our first target to take profits is at $33.60. We will cautiously set a secondary target at $35.75. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $56 target.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  November 16 at $30.30
Change since picked:     - 1.76   			
Earnings Date          02/11/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       503 thousand
Listed on  November 11, 2009    


Southern Copper Corp. - PCU - close: 34.62 change: -1.24 stop: 33.80

The rally in the dollar pushed commodities lower and shares of PCU followed with a 3.4% sell-off on Friday. The stock tested the $34.00 level (and its 40-dma) and bounced. Our stop loss is already at breakeven. Our biggest risk is another gap down move. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

Our first target is $39.50. Our second target is $41.50. Our plan called for small positions (25% to 50% your normal size).

Annotated chart:

Entry on  November 04 at $33.80
Change since picked:     + 0.82   			
Earnings Date          10/22/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.5 million 
Listed on  November 03, 2009    


Renolds American - RAI - close: 51.32 change: -0.05 stop: 49.49

RAI initially sold off on Friday and dipped to $50.14 but then there was a rush to "safer" defensive names and shares of RAI actually hit a new high on an intraday basis. Investors could start putting more money into high dividend stocks as they seek to avoid risk. I remain bullish on RAI. Our target is $54.50. Our time frame is several weeks!

Annotated chart:

Entry on  November 14 at $50.32 
Change since picked:     + 1.00   			
Earnings Date          02/11/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.6 million 
Listed on  November 14, 2009    


Symantec - SYMC - close: 17.69 change: -0.33 stop: 17.24

Uh-oh! Bulls could be in trouble with SYMC. The stock broke down from its narrowing consolidation pattern. I'll probably remove SYMC as a bullish candidate if shares close under $17.50. Currently we're still waiting on a breakout higher with a trigger to open positions at $18.20.

If triggered our first target to take profits is at $19.90. The $20.00 level will probably act as round-number resistance. Our second target, with a much longer time frame, is $21.75. Currently the Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $23 target.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  November xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 18.20
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          01/27/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:      11.8 million 
Listed on  November 16, 2009    


Travelers Companies - TRV - close: 51.65 change: -1.11 stop: 49.75

We have finally been triggered on our TRV play and at a better price although not necessarily at a better entry point. The stock gapped open lower on Friday at $51.94. Our trigger was at $52.15 so the trade was opened Friday morning. Unfortunately the intraday bounce back above the $52.00 level failed. At this point we don't know if there will be any follow through on Friday's market weakness. I would wait for a new rise over the 10-dma (currently $52.80) or wait for a bounce near $50.00 before launching new bullish positions. Our target is $57.40.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  November 27 at $51.94 /gap down entry point 
Change since picked:     - 0.29   			
Earnings Date          01/27/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       5.3 million 
Listed on  November 07, 2009    


Wyndham Worldwide - WYN - close: 18.56 change: -0.44 stop: 17.20

WYN dipped toward support near $18.00 and bounced. Under more normal circumstances I'd be tempted to buy the bounce but we don't know how investors will react to the Dubai news when they come back from holiday on Monday. The trend is up for WYN but shares might test their 50-dma before moving higher. Let's take a wait and see approach before initiating new positions.

Our first target is $21.00. FYI: The point & figure chart is bullish with a $27 target. Our time frame is several weeks. The plan was to use small positions (1/2 a position).

Annotated chart:

Entry on  November 10 at $18.88 (1/2 position) /gap open higher
Change since picked:     - 0.32   			
Earnings Date          02/11/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.5 million 
Listed on  November 10, 2009    


BEARISH Play Updates

Bank of New York - BK - close: 26.30 change: -0.32 stop: 27.16

Banking stocks were some of the worst performers on Friday. Investors were nervous about which banks might have exposure to Dubai's debt. BK slipped toward its Nov ember lows and bounced. We are still on the sidelines.

I'm suggesting a trigger to open bearish positions at $25.49. More cautious trader could wait for a drop under $25.00 since it might be round-number support.

If the newsletter is triggered at $25.49 our first target is $22.25. Our second target is $20.50. Our time frame is several weeks.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  November xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 25.49
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          01/20/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:      11.4 million 
Listed on  November 21, 2009    


Liberty Global - LBTYA - close: 19.78 change: -0.39 stop: 21.26

LBTYA's close under the $20.00 level looks like a new bearish entry point. Our first target is $18.20. Our second target is $16.20. Our time frame is several weeks.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  November 24 at $19.85
Change since picked:     - 0.07   			
Earnings Date          02/24/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.5 million 
Listed on  November 21, 2009    


Metlife Inc. - MET - close: 33.28 change: -1.31 stop: 36.05

Friday's breakdown in shares of MET look like a new bearish entry point. More conservative traders might want to lower their stops toward the $35.00 level. I'm keeping our stop at $36.05 for now. There is potential support at the 200-dma near $31.00 but I'm suggesting we target a drop to $30.25. More aggressive traders could aim lower.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  November 21 at $34.39 /gap higher entry
                           /originally listed at $33.90
Change since picked:     - 1.11   			
Earnings Date          02/04/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       7.2 million 
Listed on  November 21, 2009    


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Halliburton - HAL - close: 29.09 change: -1.12 stop: 29.80

Investors rushed into "safe haven" investments like bonds and the dollar. This rise in the dollar pushed crude oil lower and the energy stocks suffered. HAL broke support on Friday. I am dropping it as a bullish candidate. Our trigger to buy the stock has not been hit. Nimble traders can look for this bounce to roll over under $30.00 and use it as a bearish entry point.

chart:

Entry on  November xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 32.20
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			*never opened*
Earnings Date          01/26/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:      15.7 million 
Listed on  November 17, 2009    


Polaris Industries - PII - close: 43.49 change: -1.58 stop: 43.25

The market's decline on Friday morning was too much for PII. The stock gapped down under its 50-dma and quickly hit our stop loss at $43.25 closing our trade.

chart:

Entry on  November 09 at $45.15
Change since picked:     - 1.90 <-- stopped out @ 43.25 (-4.2%)
Earnings Date          01/28/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       516 thousand
Listed on  November 07, 2009