The S&P 500 is teasing us with a rally right to resistance near its November highs. We did have one bullish candidate hit our trigger to open positions.


BULLISH Play Updates

Analogic Corp. - ALOG - close: 40.30 change: -0.21 stop: 38.99

The relative weakness in ALOG on Tuesday is a warning sign. Readers will want to wait for a new rise over $41.00 before launching new positions. Our first target to take profits is at $44.90. I'd aim higher but ALOG is due to report earnings on December 9th and we don't want to hold over the report. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $54 target.

Entry on  November 25 at $41.51 
Change since picked:     - 1.21   			
Earnings Date          12/09/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:      41.5 thousand
Listed on  November 24, 2009    


Best Buy Inc. - BBY - close: 43.53 change: +0.70 stop: 39.85

Retail stocks were in rally mode with new expectations that the 2009 holiday season will be stronger than last year (which won't be hard to beat). We're going to hear from several retailers in the next day or two as they report their November same-store sales data. This could provoke some volatility in the sector. I remain bullish on BBY but I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Our first target is $46.00. Our second target is $49.80. Our time frame is several weeks.

Entry on  November 10 at $42.20
Change since picked:     + 1.33   			
Earnings Date          12/15/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       5.1 million 
Listed on  November 09, 2009    


Bank of Hawaii - BOH - close: 45.52 change: -0.18 stop: 43.90

There was not much follow through in the banking sector today, at least not in the U.S. BOH struggled with resistance near $46.00. If the banking indices can breakout past resistance, which they're close to doing, it should breathe new life into the rally. I'd still wait for a new move over $46.00 in BOH before launching new positions.

Our first target to take profits is at $49.85. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $59 target.

Entry on  November 18 at $46.20 
Change since picked:     - 0.68   			
Earnings Date          01/25/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       424 thousand
Listed on  November 17, 2009    


Johnson & Johnson - JNJ - close: 63.51 change: +0.67 stop: 59.90

JNJ continues to do well and shares hit a new 52-week high this afternoon. Keep positions small. The $65.00 level might offer some resistance but our target first target is $67.50.

Entry on  November 23 at $63.05
Change since picked:     + 0.46   			
Earnings Date          01/26/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:      12.6 million 
Listed on  November 21, 2009    


Potlatch Corp. - PCH - close: 29.53 change: +0.09 stop: 27.95

The early morning rally in PCH failed at the $30.00 mark but I wouldn't give up just yet. Look for a move over $30.00 (or better yet $30.10) before launching new bullish positions.

Our first target to take profits is at $33.60. We will cautiously set a secondary target at $35.75. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $56 target.

Entry on  November 16 at $30.30
Change since picked:     - 0.77   			
Earnings Date          02/11/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       503 thousand
Listed on  November 11, 2009    


Southern Copper Corp. - PCU - close: 35.28 change: +0.44 stop: 33.80

Renewed weakness in the dollar sent commodities higher. Copper did participate and PCU managed a 1.2% gain. Shares are still stuck under resistance at the $36.00 level. A breakout past the November 18th high (36.25) could be used as a new entry point.

Our first target is $39.50. Our second target is $41.50. Our plan called for small positions (25% to 50% your normal size).

Entry on  November 04 at $33.80
Change since picked:     + 1.48   			
Earnings Date          10/22/09 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.5 million 
Listed on  November 03, 2009    


Renolds American - RAI - close: 50.84 change: +0.88 stop: 49.49

Thankfully RAI managed a rebound from yesterday's unexpected sell-off. Yet bulls remain at risk. Today's session is an "inside day". Tomorrow's performance should help forecast RAI's new direction. Our target is $54.50. Our time frame is several weeks.

Entry on  November 14 at $50.32 
Change since picked:     + 0.52   			
Earnings Date          02/11/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.6 million 
Listed on  November 14, 2009    


Starbucks Corp. - SBUX - close: 21.73 change: -0.17 stop: 20.95

SBUX tried to rally but struggled with resistance near $22.00. I don't see any changes from my Monday night comments. I'm suggesting a trigger to buy the stock at $22.25. If triggered our first target is $24.90.

Entry on  November xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 22.25
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          01/28/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:      10.9 million 
Listed on  November 30, 2009    


Symantec - SYMC - close: 18.01 change: +0.26 stop: 17.24

SYMC is once again flirting with a bullish breakout over resistance near $18.00. The high today was $18.15. I'm suggesting a trigger to buy SYMC at $18.20.

If triggered our first target to take profits is at $19.90. The $20.00 level will probably act as round-number resistance. Our second target, with a much longer time frame, is $21.75. Currently the Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $23 target.

Entry on  November xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 18.20
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          01/27/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:      11.8 million 
Listed on  November 16, 2009    


Travelers Companies - TRV - close: 52.60 change: +0.21 stop: 49.75

TRV has filled the gap down from last week but is still struggling with short-term resistance. The larger trend is bullish but short-term TRV needs a breakout. Focus on the $53.00 level. Our target is $57.40.

Entry on  November 27 at $51.94 /gap down entry point 
Change since picked:     + 0.66   			
Earnings Date          01/27/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       5.3 million 
Listed on  November 07, 2009    


Warner Chilcott - WCRX - close: 25.52 change: +0.94 stop: 22.49

A positive market allowed WCRX to breakout to new highs. The stock gapped open at $24.77 and rallied to $25.85 intraday. Our trigger to buy WCRX was at $24.65 so the play was opened this morning on the gap higher. Our first target is $27.40. I'm adding a second target at $29.45.

chart:

Entry on  December 01 at $24.77 gap open entry point (small positions)
Change since picked:     + 0.75   			
Earnings Date          02/25/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.8 million 
Listed on  November 28, 2009    


Wyndham Worldwide - WYN - close: 18.95 change: +0.38 stop: 17.20

Shares of WYN are finally starting to wake up and the stock gained 2% on Tuesday. I'm tempted to buy this bounce but I'd like to see a close over its 10-dma.

Our first target is $21.00. FYI: The point & figure chart is bullish with a $27 target. Our time frame is several weeks. The plan was to use small positions (1/2 a position).

Entry on  November 10 at $18.88 (1/2 position) /gap open higher
Change since picked:     + 0.07   			
Earnings Date          02/11/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.5 million 
Listed on  November 10, 2009    


BEARISH Play Updates

Activision-Blizzard - ATVI - close: 11.66 change: +0.27 stop: 12.01

ATVI is bouncing back toward technical resistance. We're still on the sidelines waiting for a breakdown. I'm suggesting a trigger to launch small bearish trades at $11.15. More conservative traders could wait for a drop under $11.00 first. If triggered our first target is $10.05. Our second target is $9.25. Our time frame is several weeks. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is currently forecasting a $7.50 target.

Entry on  November xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 11.19
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          02/04/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        20 million 
Listed on  November 28, 2009    


Bank of New York - BK - close: 26.95 change: +0.31 stop: 27.16

BK is trying to reverse higher. If we see the stock close over $28.00 we'll drop it as a bearish candidate. For now we're still waiting for a breakdown.

I'm suggesting a trigger to open bearish positions at $25.49. More cautious trader could wait for a drop under $25.00 since it might be round-number support.

If the newsletter is triggered at $25.49 our first target is $22.25. Our second target is $20.50. Our time frame is several weeks.

Entry on  November xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 25.49
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          01/20/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:      11.4 million 
Listed on  November 21, 2009    


Liberty Global - LBTYA - close: 19.31 change: +0.02 stop: 21.26

LBTYA did not really participate in the market's rally on Tuesday, which is a good sign for the bulls. However, shares are somewhat oversold and if the S&P 500 does breakout higher we may want to exit early. Our first target is $18.20. Our second target is $16.20. Our time frame is several weeks.

Entry on  November 24 at $19.85
Change since picked:     - 0.54   			
Earnings Date          02/24/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.5 million 
Listed on  November 21, 2009    


Lam Research - LRCX - close: 34.95 change: -0.96 stop: 36.26

Semiconductor stocks were some of the best performers today. The SOX gained 3.0%, which is good news for the market since this group tends to lead the NASDAQ. Unfortunately it's not good news for our LRCX short play. More conservative traders may want to lower their stops down toward $35.50. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

Our first target is $30.25. Our second target is $28.25.

FYI: Shares of LRCX appear to have formed a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern but where the neckline falls is a matter of opinion. Traders should also note that this is a higher-risk trade. The most recent data listed short interest at more than 14% of the 126 million-share float. That is above average short interest and raises our risk of a short squeeze.

Entry on  November 28 at $34.49 (small positions)
Change since picked:     + 0.46   			
Earnings Date          01/28/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.8 million 
Listed on  November 28, 2009    


Metlife Inc. - MET - close: 34.19 change: +0.00 stop: 36.05

MET closed unchanged on the session. Lack of follow through on yesterday's bounce and failure to participate in today's rally is good news but I remain cautious. If the S&P 500 breaks out higher from here we could be in trouble. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

There is potential support at the 200-dma near $31.00 but I'm suggesting we target a drop to $30.25. More aggressive traders could aim lower.

Entry on  November 21 at $34.39 /gap higher entry
                           /originally listed at $33.90
Change since picked:     - 0.20   			
Earnings Date          02/04/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       7.2 million 
Listed on  November 21, 2009