Time is almost up for our BBY play. We're also cutting one of our candidates in the transportation sector.


BULLISH Play Updates

Best Buy Inc. - BBY - close: 44.34 change: +1.13 stop: 42.95 *new*

The preliminary December results for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment index came in better than expected. Add to that the better than expected retail sales numbers from the Commerce Department and we have a bullish day for retailers. The RLX gained 1.2%. Shares of BBY out performed its peers with a 2.6% gain and a rally toward its 2009 highs.

We don't have much time left. BBY reports earnings December 15th, Tuesday morning so we will plan to exit on Monday, Dec. 14th at the closing bell to avoid holding over earnings. I'm raising our stop loss to $42.95. Our planned target to exit was $46.00. More aggressive traders may want to weigh the risks of holding over the earnings report.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  November 10 at $42.20
Change since picked:     + 2.14   			
Earnings Date          12/15/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       5.1 million 
Listed on  November 09, 2009    


Bank of Hawaii - BOH - close: 45.57 change: +0.26 stop: 43.90

The consolidation in shares of BOH continues to narrow. A breakout either direction should be imminent. I'm tempted to raise our stop loss but the bottom of the trading range is $44.00, which should be support. Overall the financials have continued to under perform and weigh on the rest of the market. I'm not suggesting new bullish positions at this time but a rally past $46.50 might change my mine.

Our first target is $49.85. I'm adding a second target at $53.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $59 target.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  November 18 at $46.20 
Change since picked:     - 0.63   			
Earnings Date          01/25/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       424 thousand
Listed on  November 17, 2009    


Broadcom - BRCM - close: 30.16 change: -1.23 stop: 28.75

After several days of gains the SOX semiconductor finally saw some profit taking. Unfortunately the profit taking in BRCM was worse with a 3.9% decline. Shares of BRCM have pulled back to round-number support near $30.00. A bounce from here (near $30) or the $29.00 area with the 50-dma can be used as a new bullish entry point. I warned readers on Thursday about a potential pull back to $30.

The stock may not move much the next couple of sessions as investors wait to hear what the company has to say at their "analyst day" on Tuesday. Our first BRCM target is $34.75. Our second target is $37.00. Our time frame is several weeks.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  December 07 at $31.25
Change since picked:     - 1.09   			
Earnings Date          01/28/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       7.4 million 
Listed on  December 05, 2009    


Cal-Maine Foods Inc. - CALM - close: 29.03 change: +0.45 stop: 27.49

CALM displayed some relative strength on Friday with a 1.5% gain, a new multi-week high, and a close over the $29.00 level. I would use this move as a new bullish entry point. Our first target to take profits is at $30.95. Our target is somewhat aggressive since we only have two or three weeks before CALM reports earnings and we don't want to hold over the report.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  December 09 at $28.66 -small positions-
Change since picked:     + 0.37   			
Earnings Date          12/28/09 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       125 thousand
Listed on  December 09, 2009    


HMS Holdings - HMSY - close: 45.64 change: -0.49 stop: 43.90

Unfortunately there wasn't much follow through on Thursday's rally. HMSY spiked to a new high at $46.60 and reversed for a 1% loss. The larger trend is still up and the path of least resistance appears to be higher. Consider buying dips in the $45-44 zone or waiting for a new closing high. Our multi-week target is $49.75. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $69 target.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  December 05 at $45.72 
Change since picked:     - 0.08   			
Earnings Date          02/18/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       192 thousand
Listed on  December 05, 2009    


Johnson & Johnson - JNJ - close: 64.85 change: +0.08 stop: 59.90

JNJ closed the week with another gain. The stock has stretched its winning streak to six weeks in a row. Shares have closed right under resistance at the $65.00 level. JNJ remains short-term overbought and due for a correction. Broken resistance in the $62.00-62.50 level should offer some support. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target first target is $67.50.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  November 23 at $63.05
Change since picked:     + 1.80   			
Earnings Date          01/26/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:      12.6 million 
Listed on  November 21, 2009    


Potlatch Corp. - PCH - close: 32.01 change: +0.52 stop: 29.49

Lack of follow through on Thursday's bearish session is good news. Yet Friday's produced an "inside day" so we're still at risk for a pull back. If shares do correct look for support near $30.00. If you're looking for a new entry point I'd wait for another bounce near $30.00.

Our first target to take profits is at $33.60. We will cautiously set a secondary target at $35.75. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $56 target.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  November 16 at $30.30
Change since picked:     + 1.71   			
Earnings Date          02/11/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       503 thousand
Listed on  November 11, 2009    


Renolds American - RAI - close: 53.00 change: +0.07 stop: 50.90

Friday's session was extremely quiet for RAI. The stock traded in a 46-cent range. I don't see any changes from my prior comments. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target to exit is $54.90.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  November 14 at $50.32 
Change since picked:     + 2.68   			
Earnings Date          02/11/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.6 million 
Listed on  November 14, 2009    


Starbucks Corp. - SBUX - close: 22.40 change: +0.09 stop: 20.95

The same news that buoyed the retailers should be good news for SBUX. Rising consumer sentiment and retail sales suggest the consumer is starting to relax and spend more. Traders bought the dip near $22.00 on Friday, right where they should have. I would use Friday's intraday bounce as a new entry point to buy the stock. Our first target is $24.90.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  December 10 at $22.25
Change since picked:     + 0.15   			
Earnings Date          01/28/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:      10.9 million 
Listed on  November 30, 2009    


Travelers Companies - TRV - close: 50.70 change: -0.06 stop: 49.75

I remain very cautious on TRV. At this point I'd consider an exit near breakeven around $52.00. However, if the S&P 500 can breakout to a new high then we'll let TRV ride if it looks cooperative. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Our last upside target was $57.40.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  November 27 at $51.94 /gap down entry point 
Change since picked:     - 1.24   			
Earnings Date          01/27/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       5.3 million 
Listed on  November 07, 2009    


Texas Instruments - TXN - close: 25.64 change: -0.30 stop: 24.40

Weakness in the semiconductors weighed on TXN. However, it's normal. The SOX index was up several days in a row and it's due for a pull back. TXN sank 1.1%. I remain bullish on TXN but traders might want to hold out for a dip closer to $25.00 before launching positions. Our first target is $29.75.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  December 02 at $26.15
Change since picked:     - 0.51   			
Earnings Date          01/26/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:      12.6 million 
Listed on  December 01, 2009    


Warner Chilcott - WCRX - close: 26.97 change: +0.05 stop: 23.90

WCRX closed the week near all-time highs. Traders may want to consider taking some money off the table. Shares are up four weeks in a row. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Our first target is $27.40. Our second target is $29.45.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  December 01 at $24.77 gap open entry point (small positions)
Change since picked:     + 2.20   			
Earnings Date          02/25/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.8 million 
Listed on  November 28, 2009    


Wyndham Worldwide - WYN - close: 20.02 change: +0.01 stop: 17.85

There is no change from my prior comments on WYN. I remain bullish and would be tempted to buy the stock here but readers will want to consider a tighter stop (maybe near $19.00). Our first target is $21.00. Our second and final target is $22.40. The plan was to use small positions (1/2 a position).

Annotated chart:

Entry on  November 10 at $18.88 (1/2 position) /gap open higher
Change since picked:     + 1.14   			
Earnings Date          02/11/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.5 million 
Listed on  November 10, 2009    


Financial SPDR - XLF - close: 14.39 change: +0.10 stop: 14.15

I am still very cautious on the banking sector. They've been under performing and the path of least resistance appears to be down for the group. Yet at the same time the XLF has just spent four days consolidating sideways in a 25-cent range so downward momentum is slowing.

At this point I would wait for a move over $15.00 before considering new bullish positions. Our target is $16.40.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  December 03 at $14.85 
Change since picked:     - 0.46   			
Earnings Date          --/--/-- (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        82 million 
Listed on  December 02, 2009    


BEARISH Play Updates

Activision-Blizzard - ATVI - close: 10.75 change: -0.01 stop: 11.81

Industry-wide video game sales in November sank more than 7% in November. The only bright spot was ATVI's Call of Duty, Modern Warfare 2. The game has been a blockbuster and I continue to read about it breaking sales records and analysts' estimates. Yet in spite of the game's success ATVI's stock trend is down. Shares spike higher Friday morning but failed at $10.95. Short-term support is near $10.60.

I am lowering our stop loss to $11.45. Look for a failed rally in the $11.20-11.40 zone as a new entry point.

Our first target is $10.05. Our second target is $9.25. Our time frame is several weeks. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is currently forecasting a $7.50 target.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  December 04 at $11.15
Change since picked:     - 0.40   			
Earnings Date          02/04/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        20 million 
Listed on  November 28, 2009    


Bank of New York - BK - close: 26.94 change: -0.18 stop: 27.16

Shares of BK keep spiking higher and they keep failing at overhead resistance. With the banking sector looking vulnerable I'm not ready to give up yet on BK.

I'm suggesting a trigger to open bearish positions at $25.49. More cautious trader could wait for a drop under $25.00 since it might be round-number support.

If the newsletter is triggered at $25.49 our first target is $22.25. Our second target is $20.50. Our time frame is several weeks.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  November xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 25.49
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          01/20/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:      11.4 million 
Listed on  November 21, 2009    


Wells Fargo - WFC - close: 25.41 change: +0.09 stop: 28.01

I am not surprised to see WFC bounce from round-number support at $25.00. Shares were somewhat oversold and due for a bounce. There is no denying the bearish breakdown this past week.

Readers can look for a bounce or a failed rally near $26.00 or the $26.50-27.00 zone as a new bearish entry point. Our first bearish target is $23.10. Our second and final target is $21.00.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  December 10 at $25.75 (small positions)
Change since picked:     - 0.34   			
Earnings Date          01/27/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        37 million 
Listed on  December 08, 2009    


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Expeditors Intl. - EXPD - close: 32.64 chg: +0.29 stop: 30.90

EXPD has failed to move. I'm giving up on it for now. We'll look for new candidates elsewhere. Our trigger to open bullish positions at $33.75 has not been hit.

chart:

Entry on  December xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 33.75 (small pos)
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			*never opened*
Earnings Date          02/09/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.5 million 
Listed on  December 05, 2009