BULLISH Play Updates
CVR Energy - CVI - close: 8.52 change: +0.01 stop: 7.50
CVI is still holding up pretty well. The stock failed at technical resistance near its 200-dma again but there was no real selling, which is more than we can say for the rest of the market. I remain cautious given the market's weakness but a dip or a bounce near $8.00 could be used as a new bullish entry point. I would expect a dip. More conservative traders may want to up their stop loss closer to $8.00. Our target long-term target is $12.50. CVI has to push past resistance at the 200-dma (near $8.74) and the $10.00 level first.
Entry on January 19 at $ 8.20
Change since picked: + 0.32
Earnings Date 03/10/10 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 411 thousand
Listed on January 17, 2009
Hologic Inc. - HOLX - close: 15.79 change: -0.01 stop: 14.95 *new*
The good news is that HOLX hit new relative highs on Friday. The bad news is that shares quickly reversed so the move looks like a short-term top. Overall there really wasn't any selling in HOLX but if the market continues to fall we can expect HOLX to eventually succumb. The stock should have some support near $15.50 (near its 100-dma) and the $15.00 level. I'm inching up our stop loss to $14.95. More conservative traders may want to use a higher stop loss. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Our first target to take profits is at $16.45. Our second target is $17.25.
Entry on January 13 at $15.15 (small positions)
Change since picked: + 0.64
Earnings Date 02/01/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.7 million
Listed on January 04, 2009
North American Palladium - PAL - close: 4.09 change: -0.07 stop: 3.85
I am surprised that PAL did not hit our stop loss on Friday. It came close but the low was only $3.88. I did hear at least one analyst suggest that platinum and palladium could see sharper corrections than the rest of the metals so this pull back may not be over yet. More conservative traders may want to abandon ship. I am somewhat encouraged by the intraday bounce since the $4.00 level was the 38.2% Fib retracement area. However, I would not buy this dip/bounce yet. The market looks too weak. Consider keeping your position size small to limit your risk. Our first target is $7.00.
Entry on January 19 at $4.50
Change since picked: - 0.41
Earnings Date 02/22/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million
Listed on January 17, 2009
ParkerVision Inc. - PRKR - close: 1.85 change: -0.05 stop: 1.79
Our aggressive trade on PRKR might be undone by the weakness in the rest of the market. Shares edged lower and posted a 2.6% loss. The stock closed just under its 50-dma by a penny. Technically Friday's move looks like a bearish breakdown from the four-day sideways consolidation. More conservative traders will want to consider an early exit now - you can jump back in later. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.
If the market can rally again I suspect that PRKR could see a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at more than 16% of the very small 28 million-share float.
We want to keep positions small to limit our risk. Our first target to take profits is at $2.45. Our second target is $2.75. We do not want to hold over the mid March earnings report.
Entry on January 19 at $ 2.01 (small positions)
Change since picked: - 0.16
Earnings Date 03/15/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 183 thousand
Listed on January 19, 2009
BEARISH Play Updates
Best Buy - BBY - close: 37.15 change: -1.02 stop: 40.26 *new*
I was expecting BBY to bounce at the 200-dma but the market's meltdown this past week was enough to push BBY lower. I am lowering our stop loss to $40.26. I don't see any obstacles between current levels and our target at $35.25.
Entry on January 12 at $38.95 (small positions)
Change since picked: - 1.80
Earnings Date 03/25/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.0 million
Listed on January 02, 2009
Oshkosh Corp. - OSK - close: 34.81 change: -0.87 stop: 37.51
Our new play on OSK is now open. Shares hit the trigger to open bearish positions at $35.25 as it broke down under the 100-dma. The close under $35.00 is another bearish sign. I would still consider new positions now but keep in mind that OSK is short-term oversold. If there is an oversold bounce watch for it to roll over in the $36.00-37.50 zone. Our first target is $30.25. Our time frame is only a few days. OSK reports earnings on Jan. 28th and we do not want to hold over the announcement.
Entry on January 22 at $35.25
Change since picked: - 0.44
Earnings Date 01/28/10 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 977 thousand
Listed on January 20, 2009
CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS
Bank of America - BAC - close: 14.90 change: -0.57 stop: 15.79
Investors appeared to be worried that Obama's new rules on the banks might actually get passed. The sector has been plunging the last couple of days. BAC has broken under the $15.00 level, which should have offered some short-term support. Our trade has not yet been opened with a trigger at $16.80 and given the recent weakness I'm dropping BAC as a bullish candidate.
Entry on January xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 16.80
Change since picked: + 0.00 (small positions) *NEVER OPENED*
Earnings Date 01/20/10 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 161 million
Listed on January 20, 2009
Home Depot - HD - close: 27.72 change: -0.76 stop: 27.95
Shares of HD finally caved into the selling pressure and broke down under its 50-dma, which was a common occurrence on Friday. The stock hit our stop loss at $27.95 closing this trade. I wouldn't be surprised to see HD dip toward its 200-dma.
Entry on December 14 at $28.82 *gap higher entry
Change since picked: - 0.87 <-- stopped @ 27.95 (-3.0%)
Earnings Date 02/23/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 15.7 million
Listed on December 12, 2009
Renolds American - RAI - close: 53.09 change: -0.32 stop: 52.85
The selling was so widespread that even RAI succumbed if only for a few minutes. The stock dipped to $52.76 Friday morning, which was enough to stop us out at $52.85. The intraday bounce rolled over under $54.00 so the correction may not be over yet.
Entry on November 14 at $50.32
Change since picked: + 2.53 <-- stopped @ 52.85 (+5.0%)
/sell half @ 53.15 (+5.6%)
Entry on January 19 at $54.60 (small positions)
Change since picked: - 1.75 <-- stopped @ 52.85 (-3.2%)
Earnings Date 02/11/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million
Listed on November 14, 2009
Sigma Designs - SIGM - close: 10.84 change: -0.51 stop: 10.95
Traders did buy the dip at $11.00 like we thought they would but the intraday bounce quickly rolled over as the market continued to fall. Shares began to accelerate lower just like the major indices and SIGM hit our stop loss at $10.95.
Entry on January 15 at $11.30
Change since picked: - 0.35 <-- stopped out @ 10.95 (-3.0%)
Earnings Date 03/04/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 392 thousand
Listed on January 09, 2009
Vishay Intertechnology - VSH - close: 8.44 change: -0.36 stop: 8.45
VSH was not immune to the market's decline. Shares hit our stop loss at $8.45 on Friday morning. The three-day pattern with the breakout, reversal and now the confirmation lower definitely looks like a turning point for VSH. I would look for possible support near $8.00 and then near the 200-dma if shares get that low.
Entry on January 08 at $ 8.85 (small positions)
Change since picked: - 0.40 <-- stopped @ 8.45 (-4.5%)
Earnings Date 02/09/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million
Listed on January 05, 2009
Wright Express Corp. - WXS - close: 31.00 change: -1.19 stop: 30.95
Not to be left behind shares of WXS also broke down under their 50-dma. The stock closed with a 3.6% loss and hit our stop loss at $30.95 late on Friday afternoon as the market accelerated lower. There might be some support near $30.00 but I would focus on the 200-dma near $28.00.
Entry on December 21 at $32.30
Change since picked: - 1.35 <-- stopped @ 30.95 (-4.1%)
Earnings Date 02/10/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 209 thousand
Listed on December 19, 2009