The market delivered the typical post-FOMC meeting volatility with a very late-day bounce.


BULLISH Play Updates

CVR Energy - CVI - close: 8.35 change: -0.05 stop: 7.50

CVI dipped to its 10-dma and bounced but still closed with a 0.6% decline. While I'd like to see a bounce from here I still think it dips toward $8.00, which should be stronger support. More conservative traders may want to up their stop loss closer to $8.00. Our target long-term target is $12.50. CVI has to push past resistance at the 200-dma (near $8.74) and the $10.00 level first.

Entry on   January 19 at $ 8.20 
Change since picked:     + 0.15 
Earnings Date          03/10/10 (confirmed)         
Average Daily Volume:       411 thousand     
Listed on   January 17, 2009    


Hologic Inc. - HOLX - close: 15.35 change: -0.28 stop: 14.95

It was a little bit of a rough day for HOLX. The early morning spike higher quickly reversed and shares fell through some short-term support at its 10 and 100-dma. Now odds are good that HOLX will decline toward stronger support near $15.00. We only have a few days left (3) since we plan to exit ahead of the Feb. 1st earnings report that comes out after the closing bell. We will plan to exit completely at $16.45 if HOLX can get there. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Entry on   January 13 at $15.15   (small positions)
Change since picked:     + 0.20   			  
Earnings Date          02/01/10 (confirmed)      
Average Daily Volume:       2.7 million      
Listed on   January 04, 2009    


BEARISH Play Updates

Atlas Air Worldwide - AAWW - close: 37.33 change: +0.86 stop: 40.05

The market's late-day rally made a big impression on shares of AAWW. The stock soared from a test of technical support at its 50-dma. Technically this is a short-term bullish reversal. If you were bullish on this stock it would be an entry point with a tight stop under today's low. I'm watching for AAWW to find resistance in the $38.00-39.00 zone. If it closes over $39.00 but doesn't hit our stop loss at $40.05 we'll probably close this play early. No new positions at this time. We'll wait for the failed rally. Our first target is $32.60.

Entry on   January 23 at $37.66 /gap open entry
Change since picked:     - 0.33   			
Earnings Date          02/24/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       291 thousand
Listed on   January 23, 2009    


American Tower Corp. - AMT - close: 42.66 change: +0.12 stop: 43.75 *new*

Shares of AMT hit our trigger to open bearish positions at $41.90 this morning when it broke support at $42.00 and the 50-dma. Unfortunately AMT also produced an intraday bounce. I would expect a bounce back toward the 10-dma around $43.60. Therefore we need to adjust our stop loss from $43.55 to $43.75. Wait for this bounce to roll over before initiating new positions. Our first target is $40.10. Our second target is $37.75. We do not want to hold over the late February earnings report.

chart:

Entry on   January 27 at $41.90
Change since picked:     + 0.76   			
Earnings Date          02/24/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.8 million 
Listed on   January 26, 2009    


Best Buy - BBY - close: 36.92 change: -0.14 stop: 40.26

Shares of BBY were upgraded to a "buy" today but it didn't have much impact on the stock price. Shares sank to new relative lows with a 0.3% decline. This relative weakness is a good sign for the bears but BBY is growing more oversold and is due for a bounce. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. A failed rally at the 200-dma could be a new entry point. Our first target to exit is $35.25. I'm adding a second target at $32.25.

Entry on   January 12 at $38.95 (small positions)
Change since picked:     - 2.03   			
Earnings Date          03/25/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       8.0 million      
Listed on   January 02, 2009    


Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao - CBD - cls: 68.59 chg: -1.18 stop: 74.05

CBD tried to bounce this morning but failed at the $70.00 level. Shares eventually ended the day down 1.69%. I don't see any changes from my prior comments and would still consider new positions here. Just remember that CBD can be a volatile stock. We want to use small positions. Our first target is $61.00. Our second target is $56.00. Time frame is several weeks.

Entry on   January 26 at $69.40 (very small positions)
Change since picked:     - 0.81 
Earnings Date          03/03/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       261 thousand
Listed on   January 23, 2009    


DSW Inc. - DSW - close: 24.95 change: +0.45 stop: 25.55

DSW is still seeing an oversold bounce but it's struggling with resistance near $25.00. Volume was pretty light today so I wouldn't put much confidence in the 1.8% bounce. Our plan is to open bearish positions at $23.75. More nimble traders could try an entry point on a failed rally in the $25.50-26.50 zone.

If triggered at $23.75 our first target is $21.50 (essentially we're aiming for the 100-dma). Our second target is $20.05.

Entry on   January xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 23.75
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          03/24/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       387 thousand
Listed on   January 26, 2009    


Children's Place - PLCE - close: 33.17 change: +1.14 stop: 35.05

Shares of PLCE were upgraded to a "buy" with a $39 price target this morning. That's what caused the gap open higher at $33.70. Fortunately for us the rally didn't hold and investors used it as an opportunity to sell into strength. There is no change from my prior comments. I'm still bearish and would use this as a new entry point. Our target is $28.05. My time frame is about three weeks.

Entry on   January 23 at $32.41 
Change since picked:     + 0.76   			
Earnings Date          03/18/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       598 thousand
Listed on   January 23, 2009    


RTI Intl. - RTI - close: 25.43 change: +0.44 stop: 27.65

RTI managed to erased about half of yesterday's losses with an intraday bounce from its 40-dma. There is no change from my prior comments. Readers can launch positions now or wait for a failed rally in the $26-27 zone. Keep in mind that I'm suggesting small positions because RTI does have above average short interest at 9% of the small 29 million-share float. That raises the risk of a short squeeze.

RTI is due to report earnings in early February so our time frame is about a week and a half. Our first target is $23.00. Don't be surprised to see RTI bounce from the 50 or 100-dma. Our second target is $20.75.

Entry on   January 25 at $25.83 (small positions)
Change since picked:     - 0.40   			
Earnings Date          02/03/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       720 thousand
Listed on   January 25, 2009    


SBA Communications - SBAC - close: 34.57 change: +0.32 stop: 35.55

Traders bought the dip near SBAC's 50-dma again. The low was $33.57. I wouldn't be surprised to see SBAC bounce from here. If it does bounce we might consider new bearish positions on a failed rally in the $36-37 zone. Currently the plan is to use a trigger at $33.45 to open bearish trades. If triggered our target is $30.15. More aggressive traders could aim for the 200-dma.

Entry on   January xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 33.45
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          02/25/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.5 million 
Listed on   January 26, 2009    


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

North American Palladium - PAL - close: 3.72 change: -0.26 stop: 3.85

Ouch! It was a rough day for some of the metal commodities. Gold, platinum, and copper all traded lower. Copper actually broke down under support. Shares of PAL reacted to this metal weakness with a 6.5% decline. We were stopped out at $3.85. As I said yesterday I would keep PAL on your watch list. The $3.25-3.00 zone should be significant support and might be a good entry point to reconsider new bullish positions.

chart:

Entry on   January 19 at $4.50 
Change since picked:    - 0.65 <-- stopped out @ 3.85 (-14.4%)
Earnings Date         02/22/10 (unconfirmed)   
Average Daily Volume:      1.4 million 
Listed on   January 17, 2009    


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Oshkosh Corp. - OSK - close: 35.99 change: +0.83 stop: 37.51

We have run out of time with OSK. Shares delivered an oversold bounce thanks to the market's late-day rebound. I'm still bearish on the stock but we've run out of time. OSK is due to report earnings on Jan. 28th (tomorrow). Keep OSK on your watch list. We may jump back in if shares provide another entry point later this week.

chart:

Entry on   January 22 at $35.25
Change since picked:     + 0.74  <-- exit early (+2.0%)
Earnings Date          01/28/10 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       977 thousand
Listed on   January 20, 2009