BULLISH Play Updates

CVR Energy - CVI - close: 8.12 change: -0.26 stop: 7.95 *new*

CVI erased yesterday's gains. If you look at the intraday chart it's easier to see the new short-term trend of lower highs. As I said earlier it looks like CVI is going to break support near $8.00. The 50-dma, which should also be support has risen to $7.57. I'm turning more cautious on CVI. We'll raise our stop loss to $7.95. If we get stopped out we'll watch for a rebound from the 50-dma and consider jumping back in. We want to take profits at $9.90. Our second target is $11.95 (new target).

Entry on   January 19 at $ 8.20 
Change since picked:     - 0.08 
Earnings Date          03/10/10 (confirmed)         
Average Daily Volume:       411 thousand     
Listed on   January 17, 2009    


Patterson Companies - PDCO - close: 29.21 change: -0.15 stop: 27.95

PDCO gapped open lower at $29.16 and spent the rest of the session drifting sideways in a narrow range. I've adjusted our entry point for the gap down. I'm still bullish on PDCO with shares above the 40-dma (currently near $28.50) so I would still consider new positions here. More cautious traders may want to use a stop closer to $28.40. Our first target to take some money off the table is $30.90. Our second target is $32.45. We do not want to hold over the February 18th earnings report so PDCO may not reach our second target in time.

Entry on  February 02 at $29.16 /gap down entry
Change since picked:     + 0.05   			
Earnings Date          02/18/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.3 million 
Listed on  February 02, 2009    


Wyndham Worldwide - WYN - close: 21.56 change: -0.35 stop: 20.80

WYN also gapped open lower and spent the session drifting sideways. I've adjusted our entry for the gap open at $21.71. We can initiate positions now or wait for a dip (better yet a bounce) from the 50-dma near $21.00. This should be a short-term trade. WYN is due to report earnings on Feb. 10th and we do not want to hold over the announcement. Our first target to take profits is at $23.45. Our second target is $24.45.

Entry on  February 03 at $21.71 /gap down entry
Change since picked:     - 0.15   			
Earnings Date          02/10/10 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.0 million 
Listed on  February 02, 2009    


BEARISH Play Updates

Atlas Air Worldwide - AAWW - close: 37.60 change: -0.74 stop: 39.10

There was no follow through on yesterday's rally above the 30-dma. We're looking for a failed rally as our next entry point. Today could be the beginning of that reversal. Readers may want to wait for a breakdown under the 50-dma (currently near $36.25). Our first target is $32.60.

Entry on   January 23 at $37.66 /gap open entry
Change since picked:     - 0.06   			
Earnings Date          02/24/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       291 thousand
Listed on   January 23, 2009    


American Tower Corp. - AMT - close: 42.79 change: -0.24 stop: 43.75

AMT tried to rally this morning but reversed near $43.40 and the top of its recent trading range. I remain somewhat cautious here. More conservative traders may want to lower their stop loss just a bit toward $43.50ish. We don't want to consider new bearish positions until AMT trades at $41.80 or lower.

Our first target is $40.10. Our second target is $37.75. We do not want to hold over the late February earnings report.

Entry on   January 27 at $41.90
Change since picked:     + 0.89   			
Earnings Date          02/24/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.8 million 
Listed on   January 26, 2009    


Ameritrade - AMTD - close: 17.27 change: -0.37 stop: 20.05

Financial stocks underperformed the market on Wednesday with a 2% decline. I suspect that AMTD's 2% drop wasn't due to bank weakness but yesterday's news that Fidelity was lowering their trading commissions. Our first target is $16.10. Our second target is $15.05. More conservative traders may want to use a stop closer to $19.00. Our time frame is about six weeks.

Entry on   January 28 at $17.88 
Change since picked:     - 0.61   			
Earnings Date          04/21/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       6.1 million 
Listed on   January 28, 2009    


Best Buy - BBY - close: 37.03 change: -0.25 stop: 40.26

Hmm... I find it interesting that BBY was unable to build on yesterday's oversold bounce. The stock remains oversold so I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Our first target to exit is $35.25. Our second and final target is $32.25.

Entry on   January 12 at $38.95 (small positions)
Change since picked:     - 1.92   			
Earnings Date          03/25/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       8.0 million      
Listed on   January 02, 2009    


Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao - CBD - cls: 69.41 chg: -2.76 stop: 74.05

There was no follow through on yesterday's bounce and CBD erased most of Tuesday's gains. I would use this as a new entry point for bearish positions. We wanted to use small positions to limit our risk. Our first target is $61.00. Our second target is $56.00. Time frame is several weeks.

Entry on   January 26 at $69.40 (very small positions)
Change since picked:     + 0.01 
Earnings Date          03/03/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       261 thousand
Listed on   January 23, 2009    


DSW Inc. - DSW - close: 26.46 change: +0.23 stop: 25.55

DSW is still creeping higher. There is no change from my prior comments. We're still on the sidelines waiting for a breakdown. Instead of waiting for a decline to open positions we might decided to jump in on a failed rally near $27.00. At the moment our trigger is at $23.75.

If triggered at $23.75 our first target is $21.50 (essentially we're aiming for the 100-dma). Our second target is $20.05.

Entry on   January xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 23.75
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          03/24/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       387 thousand
Listed on   January 26, 2009    


F5 Networks - FFIV - close: 50.46 change: -0.02 stop: 52.55

The early morning rally in FFIV failed at its 50-dma. This looks like a new bearish entry point. However, FFIV is in the same sector as CSCO and CSCO reported strong earnings tonight. The networking stocks could spike higher on Thursday morning. I suggest readers wait. FFIV could spike toward $52.00 or $52.50. Wait for any morning strength to fade before launching new bearish positions. Our first target is $46.10. Our second target is $44.00.

Entry on   January 29 at $49.45 
Change since picked:     + 1.01   			
Earnings Date          04/22/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.2 million 
Listed on   January 28, 2009    


Life Technologies - LIFE - close: 49.25 change: -1.25 stop: 52.01

LIFE completely erased Tuesday's gains. This looks like a new bearish entry point. Our first target is $45.25, just above possible support at the 200-dma. We will cautiously set a second target at $41.00 but I suggest exit the majority of the position at $45.25.

Entry on   January 30 at $49.71 
Change since picked:     - 0.46   			
Earnings Date          01/28/10 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.6 million 
Listed on   January 30, 2009    


Children's Place - PLCE - close: 34.40 change: +0.32 stop: 35.05

PLCE is still bouncing in spite of the market's weakness. Look for resistance near $35.00. Wait for the rally to fail and then launch positions. Our target is $28.05. My time frame is about three weeks.

Entry on   January 23 at $32.41 
Change since picked:     + 1.99   			
Earnings Date          03/18/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       598 thousand
Listed on   January 23, 2009    


SBA Communications - SBAC - close: 33.16 change: -0.90 stop: 35.55

The oversold bounce in SBAC is already failing. This could be a new entry point right here. Our target is $30.15. More aggressive traders could aim for the 200-dma.

Entry on   January 28 at $33.45
Change since picked:     - 0.29   			
Earnings Date          02/25/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.5 million 
Listed on   January 26, 2009    


J.M.Smucker CO - SJM - close: 61.87 change: -0.48 stop: 61.51

Traders bought the dip in SJM. I remain cautious on the stock. There are no changes from my prior comments. If SJM closes above $63.00 we'll drop it as a bearish entry point. Right now our plan is to open shorts at $59.49. Our target is $55.15. More nimble traders could try and open positions in the $61.50-52.00 zone.

Entry on   January xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 59.49
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          02/24/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       698 thousand
Listed on   January 30, 2009    


Warner Chilcott - WCRX - close: 26.24 change: -0.07 stop: 29.31

Lack of follow through on yesterday's bounce is a good sign for the bears. Wait for another failed rally in the $27-28 zone before considering new positions. We still have a second target at $22.25. FYI: I've adjusted our entry point to $26.65.

Entry on   January 30 at $26.65 /gap down entry point
Change since picked:     - 1.26
                             /1st target hit @ 25.00 (-6.1%)
Earnings Date          02/26/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.3 million 
Listed on   January 30, 2009