BULLISH Play Updates

Estee Lauder - EL - close: 56.25 change: +0.58 stop: 53.49

There was no follow through on yesterday's failed rally for EL. The stock drifted higher and looks poised to breakout again. Given the market's recent volatility I'm a little hesitant to launch new positions but EL's trend is up. We want to keep positions small. Our target is $59.50. Our time frame is three to four weeks. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is forecasting at $69 target.

Entry on  February 06 at $55.40 
Change since picked:     + 0.85   			
Earnings Date          04/27/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.5 million 
Listed on  February 06, 2009    


Illionois Tool Works - ITW - close: 43.29 change: +1.04 stop: 41.75

Morgan Stanley upgraded the "industrials" sector. ITW makes "industrial goods" so shares got a boost. The stock rallied 2.4% but failed to close over technical resistance at its 10-dma and exponential 200-dma. The stock remains oversold and looks due for a bigger bounce. Traders could still open positions here but this is a very aggressive trade. Our first target is $44.85. Our second target is the $46.45 level. This is an aggressive trade. Keep positions small.

Entry on  February 06 at $42.66 
Change since picked:     + 0.63   			
Earnings Date          04/15/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.6 million 
Listed on  February 06, 2009    


Joy Global - JOYG - close: 45.73 change: +1.22 stop: 42.25

News that Greece might receive an ail package lifted the euro currency. This pushed the dollar lower and dollar weakness fueled a rally in commodities. Commodity-related stocks like JOYG rebounded and the stock gained 2.7%. Unfortunately for the bulls JOYG failed to breakout over technical resistance at its 10-dma and its exponential 200-dma. I'm going to say the same thing I said with ITW. Shares a very oversold and should see a larger bounce but there is no guarantee of a bounce. This is a very aggressive trade. The plan was to use small positions. Our target to exit is $49.75. The $50.00 level should be resistance. We might consider switching directions and going short on a failed rally near $50.

Entry on  February 06 at $44.54 (small positions)
Change since picked:     + 1.19   			
Earnings Date          02/24/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       4.1 million 
Listed on  February 06, 2009    


Patterson Companies - PDCO - close: 29.16 change: +0.54 stop: 27.95

The bounce back has lifted PDCO to our breakeven point. Shares certainly look like they want to trade higher. I am suggesting readers wait for a move over $29.50 before initiating new positions. This is an aggressive trade. Our stop loss at $27.95 doesn't offer a really good risk-reward ratio.

Our first target to take some money off the table is $30.90. Our second target is $32.45. We do not want to hold over the February 18th earnings report so PDCO may not reach our second target in time.

Entry on  February 02 at $29.16 /gap down entry
Change since picked:     - 0.00   			
Earnings Date          02/18/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.3 million 
Listed on  February 02, 2009    


BEARISH Play Updates

American Tower Corp. - AMT - close: 41.45 change: +0.78 stop: 42.75

I have been warning readers to expect an oversold bounce toward $42.00. Today shares gained 1.9% and hit $41.63. I think the bounce continues. Wait for the bounce to stall or roll over before considering new positions. Our second target to exit is $37.75. We do not want to hold over the late February earnings report.

Entry on   January 27 at $41.90
Change since picked:     - 0.45  
                          /1st target hit @ 40.10 (-4.2%)
Earnings Date          02/24/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.8 million 
Listed on   January 26, 2009    


Ameritrade - AMTD - close: 16.60 change: -0.18 stop: 18.60

AMTD underperformed the market on Tuesday. Shares lost 18 cents for the second day in a row. Our first target is $16.10. Our second target is $15.05. Our time frame is about six weeks.

Entry on   January 28 at $17.88 
Change since picked:     - 1.38   			
Earnings Date          04/21/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       6.1 million 
Listed on   January 28, 2009    


Best Buy - BBY - close: 35.98 change: +0.51 stop: 38.75

The oversold bounce carried BBY toward its 10-dma with a 1.4% gain. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. BBY has already hit our first target at $35.25. Our second and final target is $32.25.

Entry on   January 12 at $38.95 (small positions)
Change since picked:     - 2.97
                           /1st target hit @ 35.25 (-9.4%)
Earnings Date          03/25/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       8.0 million      
Listed on   January 02, 2009    


Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao - CBD - cls: 69.41 chg: +2.94 stop: 72.65

Ouch! CBD completely erased our unrealized gains today. An oversold bounce in the Brazilian Bovespa index produced a 2.4% bounce. This fueled a 4.4% rebound in shares of CBD. The stock ran out of gas at $71.12 producing a new lower high but there is no guarantee the bounce is over. I'm looking for the 50-dma near $72.00 to offer resistance. Use a failed rally under $72 as a new entry point for bearish positions. Just remember this is a very aggressive trade so we want to use small positions to limit our risk. Our first target is $61.00. Our second target is $56.00. Time frame is several weeks.

Entry on   January 26 at $69.40 (very small positions)
Change since picked:     + 0.01 
Earnings Date          03/03/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       261 thousand
Listed on   January 23, 2009    


F5 Networks - FFIV - close: 50.25 change: +1.73 stop: 52.55

The oversold bounce from support in FFIV managed a 3.5% gain. Shares closed above round-number resistance at $50.00 but still have technical resistance at their 50-dma near 51.25. We want to wait for this bounce to roll over before considering new bearish positions. Our first target is $46.10. Our second target is $44.00.

Entry on   January 29 at $49.45 
Change since picked:     + 0.80   			
Earnings Date          04/22/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.2 million 
Listed on   January 28, 2009    


FISERV Inc. - FISV - close: 45.48 change: +0.22 stop: 47.26

There is no change from my prior comments on FISV. The stock looks poised to break support and the bottom of its six-month trading range. The recent lows were near $44.80. I am suggesting a trigger to open bearish positions at $44.70. If triggered our first target is $40.15.

Entry on  February xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 44.70
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          04/29/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.4 million  
Listed on  February 00, 2009    


GATX Corp. - GMT - close: 26.37 change: +0.34 stop: 27.65

GMT continues to churn sideways. There is no change from my prior comments. More conservative traders may want to wait for a new decline under $25.65 before initiating new positions.

Our first target is $23.15. Our second target is $21.00. It could take several weeks to get there.

Entry on  February 04 at $25.95 
Change since picked:     + 0.42   			
Earnings Date          04/22/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       467 thousand
Listed on  February 04, 2009    


Life Technologies - LIFE - close: 47.82 change: +0.40 stop: 52.01

The oversold bounce in LIFE produced a 0.8% gain, less than the S&P 500's 1.3% rebound. Look for resistance near $50.00 and its 50 or 100-dma ($49-50 zone). Our target to take profits is at $45.55.

Entry on   January 30 at $49.71 
Change since picked:     - 1.89   			
Earnings Date          01/28/10 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.6 million 
Listed on   January 30, 2009    


SBA Communications - SBAC - close: 32.97 change: +0.79 stop: 35.05

The oversold bounce in SBAC continues. Shares rallied 2.4% but paused at technical resistance near its 10-dma. It's possible shares could reverse here but I would look for the rally to fail near $34.00 and its 50-dma. Our target is $30.15. More aggressive traders could aim for the 200-dma.

Entry on   January 28 at $33.45
Change since picked:     - 0.48   			
Earnings Date          02/25/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.5 million 
Listed on   January 26, 2009    


J.M.Smucker CO - SJM - close: 60.04 change: +0.66 stop: 61.51

The intraday rally in SJM reversed under its 50-dma. This could be used as a new entry point. More conservative traders can wait for a little confirmation and use a move under $59.50 to open new positions. Our target is $55.15.

Entry on  February 05 at $59.49
Change since picked:     + 0.55   			
Earnings Date          02/24/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       698 thousand
Listed on   January 30, 2009    


Warner Chilcott - WCRX - close: 25.51 change: +0.30 stop: 28.05

WCRX erased yesterday's losses but the stock continues to build on its trend of lower highs. I'm not suggesting new positions with WCRX this close to support near $25.00 and its 100-dma. WCRX has already hit our first target at $25.00. Our second target is $22.25.

Entry on   January 30 at $26.65 /gap down entry point
Change since picked:     - 1.14
                             /1st target hit @ 25.00 (-6.1%)
Earnings Date          02/26/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.3 million 
Listed on   January 30, 2009    


WIPRO Ltd - WIT - close: 20.01 change: +0.68 stop: 22.55

Shares of WIT managed a 3.5% gain fueled in part by a positive article in the WSJ. The rally lifted WIT toward previous support and now resistance at $20.00 and its 10 and 100-dma. A failure here would be bearish but I'm expecting the bounce to continue. Currently the plan is to use a trigger at $21.40 to open bearish trades. If we are triggered at $21.40 our first target is $18.05.

Entry on  February xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 21.40
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          04/22/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       934 thousand
Listed on  February 00, 2009    


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

DSW Inc. - DSW - close: 26.70 change: +1.77 stop: 25.55

Shares of DSW rallied 7.0% with above average volume on no news. I'm guessing this is just a short squeeze. The most recent data suggests DSW has short interest about 10% of the float. Given this relative strength I'm dropping it as a bearish candidate. Shares never hit our trigger for bearish positions at $23.75. Instead I would consider bullish positions on a breakout past $27.50. The 2009 high was $27.44.

chart:

Entry on   January xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 23.75
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          03/24/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       387 thousand
Listed on   January 26, 2009