BULLISH Play Updates

Estee Lauder - EL - close: 56.06 change: -0.19 stop: 53.49

EL is still trading near its highs. If the market can see a decent bounce EL should be able to breakout. I'm still concerned the market is heading lower and suggest caution on opening new bullish positions.

We want to keep positions small. Our target is $59.50. Our time frame is three to four weeks. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is forecasting at $69 target.

Entry on  February 06 at $55.40 
Change since picked:     + 0.66   			
Earnings Date          04/27/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.5 million 
Listed on  February 06, 2009    


Illionois Tool Works - ITW - close: 42.99 change: -0.30 stop: 41.75

The bounce from ITW's 200-dma is struggling. That's not a good sign. I would expect shares to retest the $42.00 level very soon. Keep in mind this is a very aggressive trade. Our first target is $44.85. Our second target is the $46.45 level. Keep positions small.

Entry on  February 06 at $42.66 (small positions)
Change since picked:     + 0.33   			
Earnings Date          04/15/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.6 million 
Listed on  February 06, 2009    


Joy Global - JOYG - close: 45.29 change: -0.44 stop: 42.25

JOYG is facing a similar situation where the bounce from its simple 200-dma is already struggling. More conservative traders will want to consider an early exit now! JOYG is going to move with commodities. If Greece does get an aid package soon then the euro will bounce, the dollar will decline, and commodities will rally, which should lift JOYG. If no aid package appears then JOYG is probably headed lower.

This is a very aggressive trade. The plan was to use small positions. Our target to exit is $49.75. The $50.00 level should be resistance. We might consider switching directions and going short on a failed rally near $50.

Entry on  February 06 at $44.54 (small positions)
Change since picked:     + 0.75   			
Earnings Date          02/24/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       4.1 million 
Listed on  February 06, 2009    


Patterson Companies - PDCO - close: 28.86 change: -0.30 stop: 27.95

The bounce has failed near short-term resistance. Today's move actually looks like a bearish engulfing candlestick. I am suggesting readers wait for a move over $29.50 before initiating new positions. This is an aggressive trade. Our stop loss at $27.95 doesn't offer a really good risk-reward ratio.

Our first target to take some money off the table is $30.90. Our second target is $32.45. We do not want to hold over the February 18th earnings report so PDCO may not reach our second target in time.

Entry on  February 02 at $29.16 /gap down entry
Change since picked:     - 0.30   			
Earnings Date          02/18/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.3 million 
Listed on  February 02, 2009    


BEARISH Play Updates

American Tower Corp. - AMT - close: 41.59 change: +0.14 stop: 42.75

The rebound in AMT continues but it appears to be running out of steam near resistance at $42.00. I am suggesting readers use this move as a new bearish entry point! Our second target to exit is $37.75. We do not want to hold over the late February earnings report.

Entry on   January 27 at $41.90
Change since picked:     - 0.31  
                          /1st target hit @ 40.10 (-4.2%)
Earnings Date          02/24/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.8 million 
Listed on   January 26, 2009    


Ameritrade - AMTD - close: 17.07 change: +0.47 stop: 18.60

Financial stocks were showing relative strength on Wednesday. AMTD was oversold and due for a bounce and shares rallied 2.8%. The move today looks like a bullish engulfing (reversal) pattern. This type of reversal normally needs to see confirmation first. However, even if AMTD does reverse higher it should find significant resistance near $18.00 and its 50 and 200-dma. Wait for the rebound to fail before launching new positions. Our first target is $16.10. Our second target is $15.05. Our time frame is about six weeks.

Entry on   January 28 at $17.88 
Change since picked:     - 0.81   			
Earnings Date          04/21/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       6.1 million 
Listed on   January 28, 2009    


Best Buy - BBY - close: 35.40 change: -0.58 stop: 38.75

BBY's bounce is already fading. Shares lost 1.6% to close near its lows. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. BBY has already hit our first target at $35.25. Our second and final target is $32.25.

Entry on   January 12 at $38.95 (small positions)
Change since picked:     - 3.55
                           /1st target hit @ 35.25 (-9.4%)
Earnings Date          03/25/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       8.0 million      
Listed on   January 02, 2009    


Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao - CBD - cls: 69.34 chg: -0.07 stop: 72.65

The bounce in CBD has reversed under the $72.00 level. Today's action looks like a new entry point to open bearish positions! Keep your positions small. CBD can be very volatile. Our first target is $61.00. Our second target is $56.00. Time frame is several weeks.

Entry on   January 26 at $69.40 (very small positions)
Change since picked:     - 0.06 
Earnings Date          03/03/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       261 thousand
Listed on   January 23, 2009    


Rockwell Collins - COL - close: 52.90 change: -0.16 stop: 55.26

Hmm... the bounce in COL stalled on Wednesday. We want to open bearish positions on a bounce near $55.00 (trigger 54.50). More nimble traders may want to consider new positions on a drop under $52.00. If triggered at $54.50 our first target is $50.25. More aggressive traders may want to aim for the 200-dma currently near $48.00. Our time frame is less than three weeks.

Entry on  February xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 54.50
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          04/28/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       834 thousand
Listed on  February 09, 2009    


F5 Networks - FFIV - close: 49.96 change: -0.29 stop: 52.55

The bounce in FFIV has also stalled although that doesn't mean it's over yet. We can launch new positions now or you can look for a move toward resistance near the 50-dma (51.30). I'd prefer to see the bounce begin to roll over first before initiating positions. Our first target is $46.10. Our second target is $44.00.

Entry on   January 29 at $49.45 
Change since picked:     + 0.51   			
Earnings Date          04/22/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.2 million 
Listed on   January 28, 2009    


FISERV Inc. - FISV - close: 45.53 change: +0.05 stop: 47.26

There is no change from my prior comments on FISV. We're waiting for a breakdown under support near $45.00. I am suggesting a trigger to open bearish positions at $44.70. If triggered our first target is $40.15.

Entry on  February xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 44.70
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          04/29/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.4 million  
Listed on  February 00, 2009    


GATX Corp. - GMT - close: 26.18 change: -0.19 stop: 27.65

There is no change from my previous comments on GMT. Shares are consolidating sideways. Traders might be better off waiting for a breakdown under $25.65 to initiate positions but a breakdown seems nearly imminent.

Our first target is $23.15. Our second target is $21.00. It could take several weeks to get there.

Entry on  February 04 at $25.95 
Change since picked:     + 0.23   			
Earnings Date          04/22/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       467 thousand
Listed on  February 04, 2009    


Life Technologies - LIFE - close: 47.35 change: -0.47 stop: 52.01

Like most of the market the bounce in LIFE is struggling. Shares gave up nearly 1% on Wednesday. There is no change from my prior comments. Look for resistance near $50.00 and its 50 or 100-dma ($49-50 zone). Our target to take profits is at $45.55. More aggressive traders could aim lower but the 200-dma is probably support.

Entry on   January 30 at $49.71 
Change since picked:     - 2.36   			
Earnings Date          01/28/10 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.6 million 
Listed on   January 30, 2009    


SBA Communications - SBAC - close: 33.24 change: +0.27 stop: 35.05

The bounce in SBAC continues. Look for resistance near the 50-dma (around $34.00). Our target is $30.15. More aggressive traders could aim for the 200-dma.

Entry on   January 28 at $33.45
Change since picked:     - 0.21   			
Earnings Date          02/25/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.5 million 
Listed on   January 26, 2009    


J.M.Smucker CO - SJM - close: 59.71 change: +0.02 stop: 61.51

I think my quote service is playing tricks on me. It says SJM is up 2 cents today. Yet yesterday SJM closed at $60.04 and today it closed at $59.71. That looks like a 33-cent drop. I am not seeing any after hours action to influence the closing price. The short-term trend is still down. I'm suggesting new positions now. More conservative traders can wait for a new drop under $59.50. Our target is $55.15.

Entry on  February 05 at $59.49
Change since picked:     - 0.22   			
Earnings Date          02/24/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       698 thousand
Listed on   January 30, 2009    


Warner Chilcott - WCRX - close: 25.46 change: -0.05 stop: 28.05

Once again traders bought the dip near support around $25.00. Fortunately for us the bounce didn't make much progress. The trend of lower highs certainly suggest that WCRX will break lower from here. WCRX has already hit our first target at $25.00. Our second target is $22.25.

Entry on   January 30 at $26.65 /gap down entry point
Change since picked:     - 1.19
                             /1st target hit @ 25.00 (-6.1%)
Earnings Date          02/26/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.3 million 
Listed on   January 30, 2009    


WIPRO Ltd - WIT - close: 20.03 change: +0.02 stop: 22.15

The bounce in WIT has stalled with shares hugging support at the $20.00 level. More aggressive traders may want to consider bearish positions now. I am lowering our trigger to open positions from $21.40 down to $20.95. I'm also lowering the stop loss down to $22.15. If we are triggered at $20.95 our first target is $18.05.

Entry on  February xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 20.95
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          04/22/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       934 thousand
Listed on  February 00, 2009