Stocks are still somewhat oversold. If the market bounces we want to be ready to take advantage of it.


BULLISH Play Updates

Estee Lauder - EL - close: 56.66 change: -0.21 stop: 53.75

EL is still consolidating sideways under resistance near $57.00. The trend of higher lows is bullish and does suggest the next move will be a breakout higher but it is not guaranteed.

We want to keep positions small. Our target is $59.50. Our time frame is three to four weeks. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is forecasting at $69 target.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  February 06 at $55.40 
Change since picked:     + 1.26   			
Earnings Date          04/27/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.5 million 
Listed on  February 06, 2009    


Illionois Tool Works - ITW - close: 43.64 change: -0.26 stop: 41.95 *new*

ITW is still trying to bounce but continues to struggle with short-term resistance at $44.00. This is an aggressive bullish trade so I would still consider small short-term positions right here but more conservative traders may want to wait for a move over $44.00 before launching positions. Our first target is only $44.85. Our second target is $46.45. I'm concerned the 50-dma will become new overhead resistance. If you wait to launch positions over $44.00 you'll want to aim for the higher target. Please note I am inching up our stop loss to $41.95.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  February 06 at $42.66 (small positions)
Change since picked:     + 0.98   			
Earnings Date          04/15/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.6 million 
Listed on  February 06, 2009    


Joy Global - JOYG - close: 47.28 change: -0.18 stop: 44.40 *new*

Investors remain nervous over the Greece debt situation and the news out of China on Friday hit the commodity sector. JOYG gapped open lower and dipped to $45.71 before bouncing back. Short-term shares still look poised to bounce. The 200-dma has risen to $44.54. I am raising our stop loss to $44.40. This is an aggressive trade so I would still consider new positions at current levels. I am adjusting our target to $49.90. More aggressive traders may want to aim for the 50-dma.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  February 06 at $44.54 (small positions)
Change since picked:     + 2.74   			
Earnings Date          02/24/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       4.1 million 
Listed on  February 06, 2009    


BEARISH Play Updates

Ameritrade - AMTD - close: 17.02 change: +0.04 stop: 18.60

It has been very quiet the last two days in AMTD. Shares are just sliding sideways in a very narrow range. The stock is technically oversold so this could be a short-term base forming. Although any bounce will probably find overhead resistance near $18.00 and/or near the 50-dma. I am not suggesting new positions at these levels. Our first target is $16.10. Our second target is $15.05. Our time frame is about six weeks.

Annotated chart:

Entry on   January 28 at $17.88 
Change since picked:     - 0.86   			
Earnings Date          04/21/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       6.1 million 
Listed on   January 28, 2009    


Best Buy - BBY - close: 35.76 change: +0.11 stop: 36.51 *new*

The trend in BBY is still down but shares have not spent over a week building support near $35.00. It might be a good idea to exit early. I am not suggesting new positions. We will lower our stop loss to $36.51. If we get stopped out we'll look for a new failed rally near $38.00 as a possible entry point for bearish plays again. BBY has already hit our first target at $35.25. Our second and final target is $32.25.

Annotated chart:

Entry on   January 12 at $38.95 (small positions)
Change since picked:     - 3.19
                           /1st target hit @ 35.25 (-9.4%)
Earnings Date          03/25/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       8.0 million      
Listed on   January 02, 2009    


Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao - CBD - cls: 68.97 chg: -1.13 stop: 72.65

CBD is still chopping around the $68-72 area. Shares gapped down on Friday morning but traders bought the dip. I'm still bearish but I suspect CBD will make another rally attempt toward $72 and its 50-dma again. Wait for the rebound to fail and then launch new bearish positions. Remember, this is a very aggressive trade. We want to keep positions small to limit our risk. Our first target is $61.00. Our second target is $56.00. Time frame is several weeks.

Annotated chart:

Entry on   January 26 at $69.40 (very small positions)
Change since picked:     - 0.43 
Earnings Date          03/03/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       261 thousand
Listed on   January 23, 2009    


Rockwell Collins - COL - close: 53.06 change: -0.49 stop: 55.26

I expect COL to hit our trigger this week. The market looks ready to bounce again. We can look for COL to rally toward resistance at the 50-dma (near 55.20) and resistance near $55.00. Our trigger to open bearish positions is at $54.50. If triggered at $54.50 our first target is $50.25. More aggressive traders may want to aim for the 200-dma currently near $48.00. Our time frame is less than three weeks.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  February xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 54.50
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          04/28/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       834 thousand
Listed on  February 09, 2009    


FISERV Inc. - FISV - close: 46.35 change: -0.09 stop: 47.26

Shares of FISV are bouncing from support near $45.00 toward resistance at its simple 200-dma (near 46.70). The stock is trading near the bottom edge of its six-month trading range. A breakdown would be extremely bearish. The plan is to open bearish positions with a trigger at $44.70. If triggered our first target is $40.15.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  February xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 44.70
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          04/29/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.4 million  
Listed on  February 00, 2009    


GATX Corp. - GMT - close: 26.41 change: +0.02 stop: 27.65

Once again traders bought the dip in GMT. The stock gapped open lower on Friday and dipped to $26.00. I think we were too early opening positions at $25.95. I'm suggesting readers wait for a move under $25.65 before considering new positions. Shares of GMT have spent more than two weeks building support near this $26 level. If the market bounces we can expect GMT to rally toward its 200-dma. More conservative traders may want to lower their stop toward $26.65, which would be a one-week high if hit. That way you could limit your risk and could re-enter down the road.

Our first target is $23.15. Our second target is $21.00. It could take several weeks to get there.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  February 04 at $25.95 
Change since picked:     + 0.44   			
Earnings Date          04/22/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       467 thousand
Listed on  February 04, 2009    


Life Technologies - LIFE - close: 48.16 change: +0.24 stop: 52.01

LIFE is still trying to bounce. The move is starting to look like a bear-flag pattern. If the market does rebound we can expect LIFE to rally towards $50 and its 50-dma. I'm suggesting readers wait for the rally to fail before launching new positions. Our target to take profits is at $45.55. More aggressive traders could aim lower but the 200-dma is probably support.

Annotated chart:

Entry on   January 30 at $49.71 
Change since picked:     - 1.55   			
Earnings Date          01/28/10 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.6 million 
Listed on   January 30, 2009    


SBA Communications - SBAC - close: 33.95 change: +0.14 stop: 35.05

SBAC has delivered a very impressive five-day bounce. It's six days if you count the intraday rebound from Feb. 5th. The stock is now testing resistance near $34.00 and has almost tagged the 50-dma. More aggressive traders can launch positions now. I'm suggesting readers wait for the rebound to stall or reverse before initiating new bearish positions. SBAC broke its up trend in January. What we're seeing is a normal oversold bounce, which should fail. Our target is $30.15. More aggressive traders could aim for the 200-dma.

Annotated chart:

Entry on   January 28 at $33.45
Change since picked:     + 0.50   			
Earnings Date          02/25/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.5 million 
Listed on   January 26, 2009    


J.M.Smucker CO - SJM - close: 59.02 change: -0.68 stop: 61.51

SJM continue to sink. The stock gapped open lower on Friday. The intraday rebound failed once it filled the gap. The path of least resistance seems to be down. Friday's move could be used as a new entry point. The 100-dma might offer some support but we're aiming for $55.15.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  February 05 at $59.49
Change since picked:     - 0.47   			
Earnings Date          02/24/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       698 thousand
Listed on   January 30, 2009    


Warner Chilcott - WCRX - close: 25.89 change: -0.05 stop: 28.11 *new*

I think it's time we exit our positions in WCRX. Shares have spent more than a week building support near $25.00, which is now bolstered by the 100-dma. Exit bearish positions now. We will keep WCRX on the play list with a new entry point to open positions at $27.75 and a stop loss at $28.11.

Annotated chart:

-2nd Trade-
Entry on February xx @ xx.xx <-- trigger @ 27.75 
Change since picked:  - 0.00 

-1st Trade - Closed 02/13/10 -
Entry on   January 30 at $26.65 /gap down entry point
Change since picked:     - 0.76 <-- exit early @ 25.89 (-2.8%)
                             /1st target hit @ 25.00 (-6.1%)
Earnings Date          02/26/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.3 million 
Listed on   January 30, 2009    


WIPRO Ltd - WIT - close: 20.53 change: -0.01 stop: 22.15

The plan is to open bearish positions on an oversold bounce near resistance. The 50-dma is currently near $21.43. I am raising our trigger from $20.95 to $21.35. We'll leave our stop unchanged at $22.15. If triggered at $21.35 our first target is $18.05.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  February xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 21.35
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          04/22/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       934 thousand
Listed on  February 00, 2009    


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Patterson Companies - PDCO - close: 28.76 change: -0.20 stop: 27.95

I am throwing in the towel on PDCO. The sideways consolidation above $28.00 is starting to develop a bearish bias. More aggressive traders could let it ride but we only have a few days left before PDCO reports earnings. I would not want to hold over the announcement. If after the report we see PDCO breakout over $29.50 then I might reconsider bullish positions. For today I'm suggesting an early exit.

chart:

Entry on  February 02 at $29.16 /gap down entry
Change since picked:     - 0.40 <-- early exit @ 28.76 (-1.3%)
Earnings Date          02/18/10 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.3 million 
Listed on  February 02, 2009