BULLISH Play Updates

DSW Inc. - DSW - close: 26.22 change: -1.47 stop: 25.75

Ouch! What happened to DSW on Wednesday? The RLX retail index and RTH were showing strength so why did DSW reverse? I could not find any news to account for the sudden weakness. How odd that it happens as soon as DSW closes at a new 52-week high. There is no denying that today's performance is a short-term bearish reversal with a failure under $28.00 and a drop toward its 30 and 40-dma near $26.00 (25.92). More conservative traders will want to exit early right here to cut their losses. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Our first target is $29.95. Remember, our plan was to keep your positions small to limit risk.

Entry on  February 16 at $27.60 (small positions)
Change since picked:     - 1.38   			
Earnings Date          03/24/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       416 thousand
Listed on  February 13, 2009    


Estee Lauder - EL - close: 58.86 change: +0.50 stop: 54.75

EL continues to extend its gains. Shares hit $59.00 this afternoon. Our target to exit is $59.75. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Entry on  February 06 at $55.40 
Change since picked:     + 3.46   			
Earnings Date          04/27/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.5 million 
Listed on  February 06, 2009    


Illionois Tool Works - ITW - close: 45.45 change: +0.76 stop: 42.75 *new*

ITW's bounce continues with a 1.7% gain. Shares gapped open at $44.95, which was above our first target to take profits at $44.85. I am raising our stop loss to $42.75. Our second and final target is $46.45.

chart:

Entry on  February 06 at $42.66 (small positions)
Change since picked:     + 2.79   			
                    /1st target exceeded/gap higher $44.95 (+5.3%)
Earnings Date          04/15/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.6 million 
Listed on  February 06, 2009    


NUCOR - NUE - close: 42.44 change: -0.25 stop: 39.95

NUE gapped open higher at $42.98, which changes our entry point on the play. Fortunately the plan was to use small positions to limit our risk. If shares fill the gap with a dip toward $41.00 we might double down and add to positions. Given the sharp decline from the highs in most of the metal stocks this morning I would be cautious about opening new positions. Keep an eye on the $41.00 level. You'll also need to keep an eye on the dollar. If the dollar continues to rally our play could be in trouble.

Our first target to take profits is at $46.75. Our second and final target is $49.85. Our time frame is about four to six weeks.

Entry on  February 16 at $42.98 (small positions)/gap higher entry
Change since picked:     - 0.54   			
Earnings Date          04/22/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       6.1 million 
Listed on  February 16, 2009    


ROSS Stores - ROST - close: 47.09 change: +0.64 stop: 44.85

Retail stocks continued to show strength with another gain on Wednesday. ROST added 1.3% to close above its early February high. If you were waiting for ROST to clear resistance it has now done so. Our target to exit is $49.75.

Entry on  February 13 at $46.43 (small positions)
Change since picked:     + 0.82   			
Earnings Date          03/18/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.4 million 
Listed on  February 13, 2009    


BEARISH Play Updates

Ameritrade - AMTD - close: 17.40 change: +0.07 stop: 18.60

Financial stocks spiked higher this morning but ran out of steam. AMTD hit its 21-dma and reversed. I'm not convinced the bounce is over yet. I am suggesting readers wait for a failed rally near the $18.00 level before considering new positions. Our first target is $16.10. Our second target is $15.05. Our time frame is about six weeks.

Entry on   January 28 at $17.88 
Change since picked:     - 0.48   			
Earnings Date          04/21/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       6.1 million 
Listed on   January 28, 2009    


Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao - CBD - cls: 72.09 chg: +1.31 stop: 72.65

Our bearish play in CBD could be over soon. The stock is still inching higher toward resistance near $72.00 and its 50-dma. Shares actually closed above $72.00 on Wednesday. If we get stopped out at $72.65 I would expect CBD to make a run at its January highs near $78.00 and more nimble traders may want to try bullish plays to scalp a chunk out of that move. I am not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. Our first target is $61.00. Our second target is $56.00. Time frame is several weeks.

Entry on   January 26 at $69.40 (very small positions)
Change since picked:     + 2.69 
Earnings Date          03/03/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       261 thousand
Listed on   January 23, 2009    


Rockwell Collins - COL - close: 54.29 change: +0.16 stop: 55.26

Our bearish play on COL is now open. Shares spiked higher this morning and hit $54.57. Our trigger to open positions was at $54.50. The 50-dma at $55.18 and the $55.00 level should be overhead resistance. Our first target is $50.25. More aggressive traders may want to aim for the 200-dma currently near $48.00. Our time frame is less than three weeks.

chart:

Entry on  February 17 at $54.50
Change since picked:     - 0.21   			
Earnings Date          04/28/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       834 thousand
Listed on  February 09, 2009    


FISERV Inc. - FISV - close: 47.12 change: +0.17 stop: 47.26

FISV is still drifting higher but shares should have resistance at their 50-dma. If shares close above their 50-dma we'll drop them as a bearish candidate. We're still on the sidelines waiting for FISV to breakdown. The plan is to open bearish positions with a trigger at $44.70. If triggered our first target is $40.15.

Entry on  February xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 44.70
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          04/29/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.4 million  
Listed on  February 00, 2009    


GATX Corp. - GMT - close: 27.05 change: +0.42 stop: 27.65

I have been warning readers about a potential bounce toward the 200-dma in GMT. It looks like that bounce has begun. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

Our first target is $23.15. Our second target is $21.00. It could take several weeks to get there.

Entry on  February 04 at $25.95 
Change since picked:     + 1.08   			
Earnings Date          04/22/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       467 thousand
Listed on  February 04, 2009    


Life Technologies - LIFE - close: 49.50 change: +0.58 stop: 52.01

The oversold bounce in LIFE continues thanks in part to relative strength in the rest of the biotech sector. Shares should encounter resistance near $50 and its 50-dma. More conservative traders may want to lower their stops. Wait for the rally to reverse before launching new positions. Our target to take profits is at $45.55. More aggressive traders could aim lower but the 200-dma is probably support.

Entry on   January 30 at $49.71 
Change since picked:     - 0.21   			
Earnings Date          01/28/10 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.6 million 
Listed on   January 30, 2009    


SBA Communications - SBAC - close: 34.33 change: +0.00 stop: 35.05

After a very impressive multi-day rally it looks like SBAC might be running out of steam. The stock hit $34.54 intraday but closed unchanged on the session. I'd like to see some weakness first before launching positions but more aggressive traders may want to jump in now. Our target is $30.15. More aggressive traders could aim for the 200-dma.

Entry on   January 28 at $33.45
Change since picked:     + 0.88   			
Earnings Date          02/25/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.5 million 
Listed on   January 26, 2009    


J.M.Smucker CO - SJM - close: 60.34 change: +0.49 stop: 61.51

SJM is bouncing but I'm expecting resistance near the 50-dma. Readers may want to wait for another failed rally under $61.00 before initiating positions. Our target to exit is $55.15 although I am starting to think we may have to exit early to avoid holding over earnings.

Entry on  February 05 at $59.49
Change since picked:     + 0.85   			
Earnings Date          02/24/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       698 thousand
Listed on   January 30, 2009    


Warner Chilcott - WCRX - close: 26.26 change: +0.19 stop: 28.11

The oversold bounce continues in WCRX. We're expecting a rebound toward resistance at $28.00 and its 50-dma. Right now the plan is to open bearish positions at $27.75. Really nimble traders could try capturing the bounce toward $28.00.

-2nd Trade-
Entry on February xx @ xx.xx <-- trigger @ 27.75 
Change since picked:  - 0.00 

-1st Trade - Closed 02/13/10 -
Entry on   January 30 at $26.65 /gap down entry point
Change since picked:     - 0.76 <-- exit early @ 25.89 (-2.8%)
                             /1st target hit @ 25.00 (-6.1%)
Earnings Date          02/26/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.3 million 
Listed on   January 30, 2009    


WIPRO Ltd - WIT - close: 21.10 change: -0.10 stop: 22.15

Bingo! WIT rallied toward its 50-dma and reversed. The stock hit our trigger to open bearish positions at $21.35. Our target is $18.05.

chart:

Entry on  February 17 at $21.35
Change since picked:     - 0.25   			
Earnings Date          04/22/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       934 thousand
Listed on  February 00, 2009    


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Joy Global - JOYG - close: 49.86 change: +0.69 stop: 44.95

Target exceeded. Our target to exit was $49.90. Imagine our surprise when shares of JOYG gapped open higher at $51.12 this morning. The play was closed immediately. I expect the stock to find resistance at its 50 and 100-dma.

chart:

Entry on  February 06 at $44.54 (small positions)
Change since picked:     + 6.58 /target exceeded/gap higher (+14.7%)
Earnings Date          02/24/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       4.1 million 
Listed on  February 06, 2009    


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Best Buy - BBY - close: 36.28 change: -0.15 stop: 36.51

BBY also spiked higher this morning and reversed. Our new stop loss was hit anyway at $36.51 closing this trade. We had a tight stop on purpose to make sure we were able to lock in some gains. I would keep BBY on your watch list. It might provide another trade soon.

chart:

Entry on   January 12 at $38.95 (small positions)
Change since picked:     - 2.44 /stopped @ 36.51 (-6.2%)
                           /1st target hit @ 35.25 (-9.4%)
Earnings Date          03/25/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       8.0 million      
Listed on   January 02, 2009