BULLISH Play Updates

DSW Inc. - DSW - close: 26.64 change: +0.42 stop: 25.75

The bounce from the $26.00 level is encouraging but I'm still concerned about Wednesday's sudden decline. I still can't find any news to explain it. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Our first target is $29.95. Remember, our plan was to keep your positions small to limit risk.

Entry on  February 16 at $27.60 (small positions)
Change since picked:     - 0.98   			
Earnings Date          03/24/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       416 thousand
Listed on  February 13, 2009    


NUCOR - NUE - close: 43.62 change: +1.18 stop: 39.95

NUE delivered a strong session with a 2.78% gain thanks to an analyst upgrade this morning. I am concerned that the Fed's surprise decision to raise the discount rate is driving the dollar higher after hours. If the dollar climbs it will put pressure on the commodity stocks and NUE could gap open lower tomorrow. More conservative traders may want to consider a tighter stop loss.

Our first target to take profits is at $46.75. Our second and final target is $49.85. Our time frame is about four to six weeks.

Entry on  February 16 at $42.98 (small positions)/gap higher entry
Change since picked:     + 0.64   			
Earnings Date          04/22/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       6.1 million 
Listed on  February 16, 2009    


ROSS Stores - ROST - close: 47.10 change: +0.01 stop: 44.85

I am somewhat disappointed in the lack of movement in ROST today. The retailers were rising but ROST barely budged. Overall the trend is up. Look for support near $46.00 on a dip. Our target to exit is $49.75.

Entry on  February 13 at $46.43 (small positions)
Change since picked:     + 0.83   			
Earnings Date          03/18/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.4 million 
Listed on  February 13, 2009    


BEARISH Play Updates

Ameritrade - AMTD - close: 17.59 change: +0.19 stop: 18.60

This could be the failed rally we've been waiting for. I have been suggesting that readers look for a failed rally under $18.00 before launching new positions. AMTD traded near the $17.80 level twice today before paring its gains. Our first target is $16.10. Our second target is $15.05. Our time frame is about six weeks.

Entry on   January 28 at $17.88 
Change since picked:     - 0.29   			
Earnings Date          04/21/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       6.1 million 
Listed on   January 28, 2009    


FISERV Inc. - FISV - close: 47.06 change: -0.06 stop: 47.26

There is no change from my prior comments. We're still on the sidelines waiting for FISV to breakdown. The plan is to open bearish positions with a trigger at $44.70. If triggered our first target is $40.15.

Entry on  February xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 44.70
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          04/29/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.4 million  
Listed on  February 00, 2009    


GATX Corp. - GMT - close: 27.28 change: +0.23 stop: 27.65

We've been expecting this bounce so it shouldn't be surprising. GMT is about to hit what should be resistance at its 200-dma near $27.35. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

Our first target is $23.15. Our second target is $21.00. It could take several weeks to get there.

Entry on  February 04 at $25.95 
Change since picked:     + 1.31   			
Earnings Date          04/22/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       467 thousand
Listed on  February 04, 2009    


Life Technologies - LIFE - close: 49.82 change: +0.32 stop: 52.01

LIFE continues to inch toward resistance near $50.00 and its 50-dma. More conservative traders may want to lower their stops. Wait for the rally to reverse before launching new positions. Our target to take profits is at $45.55. More aggressive traders could aim lower but the 200-dma is probably support.

Entry on   January 30 at $49.71 
Change since picked:     + 0.11   			
Earnings Date          01/28/10 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.6 million 
Listed on   January 30, 2009    


SBA Communications - SBAC - close: 34.45 change: +0.12 stop: 35.05

SBAC spent the session trading sideways in a very narrow range. I still expect this bounce to roll over. If you don't want to short it here then wait for a reversal. Our target is $30.15. More aggressive traders could aim for the 200-dma.

Entry on   January 28 at $33.45
Change since picked:     + 1.00   			
Earnings Date          02/25/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.5 million 
Listed on   January 26, 2009    


J.M.Smucker CO - SJM - close: 60.90 change: +0.56 stop: 61.51

SJM rebounded toward its 50-dma and stalled this afternoon. Look for shares to retreat from here before considering new bearish positions. Our target to exit is $55.15 although I am starting to think we may have to exit early to avoid holding over earnings.

Entry on  February 05 at $59.49
Change since picked:     + 1.41   			
Earnings Date          02/24/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       698 thousand
Listed on   January 30, 2009    


Warner Chilcott - WCRX - close: 26.28 change: +0.02 stop: 28.11

There is no change from my prior comments. Right now the plan is to open bearish positions at $27.75. Really nimble traders could try capturing the bounce toward $28.00.

-2nd Trade-
Entry on February xx @ xx.xx <-- trigger @ 27.75 
Change since picked:  - 0.00 

-1st Trade - Closed 02/13/10 -
Entry on   January 30 at $26.65 /gap down entry point
Change since picked:     - 0.76 <-- exit early @ 25.89 (-2.8%)
                             /1st target hit @ 25.00 (-6.1%)
Earnings Date          02/26/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.3 million 
Listed on   January 30, 2009    


WIPRO Ltd - WIT - close: 21.21 change: +0.11 stop: 22.15

WIT gapped open lower this morning but managed to rebound back into positive territory. I'm still bearish with the stock under its 50-dma near $21.50. More conservative traders may want to wait for a new move under $20.50 before launching new positions. Our target is $18.05.

Entry on  February 17 at $21.35
Change since picked:     - 0.14   			
Earnings Date          04/22/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       934 thousand
Listed on  February 00, 2009    


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Estee Lauder - EL - close: 59.51 change: +0.65 stop: 54.75

I am suggesting an early exit in EL. Shares hit $59.65 this afternoon. We had recently raised our exit target from $59.50 to $59.75. Go ahead and take profits now. The $60.00 level will probably act as resistance. I'd keep EL on your watch list as we may get another opportunity to trade it.

chart:

Entry on  February 06 at $55.40 
Change since picked:     + 4.11 <-- exit early $59.51 (+7.4%)
Earnings Date          04/27/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.5 million 
Listed on  February 06, 2009    


Illionois Tool Works - ITW - close: 46.57 change: +1.12 stop: 42.75

Target achieved! ITW continues to perform well. Shares gained 2.4% and hit $46.72 intraday. Our second and final target was $46.45. I am concerned the 50-dma and 100-dma directly overhead might be resistance.

chart:

Entry on  February 06 at $42.66 (small positions)
Change since picked:     + 3.79 <-- 2nd target hit @ 46.45 (+8.8%)
                    /1st target exceeded/gap higher $44.95 (+5.3%)
Earnings Date          04/15/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.6 million 
Listed on  February 06, 2009    


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao - CBD - cls: 73.32 chg: +1.23 stop: 72.65

Our aggressive trade on CBD did not work for us. The stock has slowly been breaking through layers of overhead resistance. Today is broke through the 50-dma and hit our stop at $72.65. Given the trend I wouldn't be surprised to see CBD make a run at its 2010 highs near $78.00. We labeled this an extremely aggressive trade and suggested very small positions.

chart:

Entry on   January 26 at $69.40 (very small positions)
Change since picked:     + 3.25 <-- stopped @ 72.65 (+4.6%)
Earnings Date          03/03/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       261 thousand
Listed on   January 23, 2009    


Rockwell Collins - COL - close: 55.24 change: +0.95 stop: 55.26

The bounce in COL got a little carried away and shares rallied past resistance at $55.00 and its 50-dma to hit our stop loss at $55.26. I would watch to see if COL fails at its prior trendline of support (currently near $56.00).

chart:

Entry on  February 17 at $54.50
Change since picked:     + 0.76 <-- stopped out  @55.26 (+1.3%)
Earnings Date          04/28/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       834 thousand
Listed on  February 09, 2009