We're trimming the list a little bit this weekend. Thus far stocks continue to bounce as expected.


BULLISH Play Updates

DSW Inc. - DSW - close: 26.73 change: +0.09 stop: 25.95 *new*

DSW's performance was pretty anemic on Friday. Yet traders are still buying the dip. I remain cautious and I am inching our stop loss up to $25.95. No new positions at this time. Our first target is $29.95. Remember, our plan was to keep your positions small to limit risk.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  February 16 at $27.60 (small positions)
Change since picked:     - 0.89   			
Earnings Date          03/24/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       416 thousand
Listed on  February 13, 2009    


Lennox Intl. - LII - close: 43.81 change: +0.54 stop: 39.75

We were expecting some profit taking on Friday but there has been no slow down in LII's rally. Shares set new highs again. We don't want to chase it. The plan is to buy LII on a dip at $41.00. More aggressive traders could use a stop under $39.00. If triggered our first target is $44.95. LII doesn't move super fast so be patient.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  February xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 41.00
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          04/22/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       591 thousand
Listed on  February 18, 2009    


NUCOR - NUE - close: 44.35 change: +0.73 stop: 39.95

Metal-related stocks showed surprising strength on Friday. Shares of NUE spiked to $45.04 before paring its gains. The $44.50 zone has a lot of technical resistance so I won't be surprised if shares pull back first before mounting another rally attempt. Readers can look for another bounce near $42.00 before launching new positions.

Our first target to take profits is at $46.75. Our second and final target is $49.85. Our time frame is about four to six weeks.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  February 16 at $42.98 (small positions)/gap higher entry
Change since picked:     + 1.37   			
Earnings Date          04/22/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       6.1 million 
Listed on  February 16, 2009    


ROSS Stores - ROST - close: 47.10 change: +0.00 stop: 44.85

Friday marked the second day in a row that shares of ROST closed virtually unchanged. Actually Friday morning saw some volatility. ROST spiked lower on what appears to be a reaction to JCP's earnings. Maybe investors thought that if JCP was doing better it meant they were taking market shares from ROST. Whatever the case the weakness was short lived. I remain bullish on ROST but it's performance has been disappointing. Readers may want to wait to buy a bounce from the $46.00 level instead of buying it here. I am suggesting smaller positions as the trading range is starting to look like a bear-wedge pattern (on the chart below). Our target to exit is $49.75.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  February 13 at $46.43 (small positions)
Change since picked:     + 0.83   			
Earnings Date          03/18/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.4 million 
Listed on  February 13, 2009    


BEARISH Play Updates

Ameritrade - AMTD - close: 18.03 change: +0.44 stop: 18.60

Hmm... it looks like I may have been a day early calling the failed rally near $18.00. Well, the rally hasn't failed yet. AMTD was oversold and due for a bounce. I've been warning readers to expect a bounce toward $18.00 for several days. Shares rallied to $18.22 on Friday, which was enough to hit the exponential 200-dma before paring its gains. We want to see this bounce stall or reverse before launching new bearish positions. Our first target is $16.10. Our second target is $15.05. Our time frame is about six weeks.

Annotated chart:

Entry on   January 28 at $17.88 
Change since picked:     + 0.15   			
Earnings Date          04/21/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       6.1 million 
Listed on   January 28, 2009    


GATX Corp. - GMT - close: 27.49 change: +0.21 stop: 27.65

We have been expecting a bounce back toward technical resistance at its 200-dma but I have to admit the speed of the bounce is a little bit stronger than expected. I believe that's due to GMT's higher-than-normal short interest. Friday's close over the 200-dma is definitely short-term bullish and puts us at risk for getting stopped out on Monday. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  February 04 at $25.95 
Change since picked:     + 1.52   			
Earnings Date          04/22/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       467 thousand
Listed on  February 04, 2009    


Life Technologies - LIFE - close: 50.01 change: +0.19 stop: 52.01

We have been expecting LIFE to bounce toward resistance near $50.00 and its 50-dma and that's what happened on Friday. Aggressive traders could launch bearish positions now although if you did I'd consider a much tighter stop loss. Actually more conservative traders may want to use a stop loss closer to $51.00. I am suggesting we wait for this bounce to roll over first before shorting LIFE again. Our target to take profits is at $45.55. More aggressive traders could aim lower but the 200-dma is probably support.

Annotated chart:

Entry on   January 30 at $49.71 
Change since picked:     + 0.30   			
Earnings Date          01/28/10 (confirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.6 million 
Listed on   January 30, 2009    


SBA Communications - SBAC - close: 34.78 change: +0.33 stop: 35.05

We did expect an oversold bounce but we did not expect SBAC to march higher for two weeks without stopping. Shares hit $34.98 on Friday. The stock is short-term overbought and due for a reversal lower but I am not suggesting new positions at this time. SBAC is expected to report earnings on Feb. 25th. If we don't get stopped out on Monday we'll plan to exit before the earnings report. More conservative traders may want to exit early.

Annotated chart:

Entry on   January 28 at $33.45
Change since picked:     + 1.33   			
Earnings Date          02/25/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.5 million 
Listed on   January 26, 2009    


J.M.Smucker CO - SJM - close: 60.55 change: -0.35 stop: 61.51

If you look at an intraday chart of SJM the action on Friday looks like a failed rally near the 50-dma. The move looks like an entry point but we're almost out of time. SJM is due to report earnings on Feb. 24th before the market opens. We want to avoid holding over earnings so we want to exit on Feb. 23rd at the closing bell.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  February 05 at $59.49
Change since picked:     + 1.06   			
Earnings Date          02/24/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       698 thousand
Listed on   January 30, 2009    


WIPRO Ltd - WIT - close: 20.96 change: -0.25 stop: 22.15

So far so good. WIT's oversold bounce has stalled near its 50-dma for now. Although I'm concerned that if the market continues to advance we'll get stopped out. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is $18.05.

Annotated chart:

Entry on  February 17 at $21.35
Change since picked:     - 0.39   			
Earnings Date          04/22/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       934 thousand
Listed on  February 00, 2009    


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

FISERV Inc. - FISV - close: 47.59 change: +0.53 stop: 47.26

FISV is showing too much strength. We were waiting for a breakdown under its recent lows. Instead the stock has rallied through several layers of resistance. I'm dropping it as a bearish candidate. The stock never hit our trigger at $44.70.

chart:

Entry on  February xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 44.70
Change since picked:     + 0.00   		    *never opened*
Earnings Date          04/29/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.4 million  
Listed on  February 00, 2009    


Warner Chilcott - WCRX - close: 26.50 change: +0.22 stop: 28.11

Our plan was to launch bearish positions on a bounce near resistance at $27.75. I'm temporarily dropping WCRX from the play list and we'll wait and see what happens. Shares do look poised to bounce higher and I am expecting resistance at the 50-dma and/or the $28.00 level.

chart:

-2nd Trade-
Entry on February xx @ xx.xx <-- trigger @ 27.75 
Change since picked:  - 0.00         *2nd trade never opened*

-1st Trade - Closed 02/13/10 -
Entry on   January 30 at $26.65 /gap down entry point
Change since picked:     - 0.76 <-- exit early @ 25.89 (-2.8%)
                             /1st target hit @ 25.00 (-6.1%)
Earnings Date          02/26/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.3 million 
Listed on   January 30, 2009