The strong auto sales numbers and the prediction for March sales to be close to 12 million proved strong medicine for PCAR.


BULLISH Play Updates

Ford Motor Co. - F - close: 12.41 change: -0.19 stop: 11.75

That was depressing! Ford beat GM in monthly sales for the first time since 1998 and then ends up negative for the day. Given the ramp into the report I am not that surprised. I heard more than one analyst after the report suggest taking profits and buying it back later.

Our stop is at the breakeven point for this play at $11.75 and I am going to leave it there just in case some people did not hear the call to sell.

Obviously, any reader can exit at any time. Taking profits at $12.25 will only net you 50 cents but it is better than a breakeven.

The intraday spike to $12.50 hit our first exit target.

There is potential resistance at the January highs but our first target is $12.50. Our second, longer-term target is $13.40. Our time frame is several weeks.

Entry on  February 23 at $11.72 /gap higher entry
Change since picked:     + 0.79   			
Earnings Date          04/22/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:        96 million 
Listed on  February 23, 2010    


NUCOR - NUE - close: 42.92 change: +0.54 stop: 41.75 *NEW*

Two days still does not make a trend. Nucor rallied "slightly" on the analyst call for higher steel prices in 2010. I am not convinced yet. I raised the stop to $41.75.

James' comments: NUE is channeling sideways with support in the $39-40 zone and resistance in the $50-51 zone. We can buy dips (or bounces) in the $40-41 area. More aggressive traders may want to use a wider stop loss and place their stop under the February low (38.93). If you want to wait for a little confirmation on the bounce then look for a new rise over $43.00 to initiate positions.

Our first target to take profits is at $46.75. Our second and final target is $49.85. Our time frame is about four to six weeks.

Entry on  February 16 at $42.98 (small positions)/gap higher entry
Change since picked:     - 0.06   			
Earnings Date          04/22/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       6.1 million 
Listed on  February 16, 2009    


ROSS Stores - ROST - close: 49.28 change: -0.02 stop: 49.05 *new*

No specific news and no movement in the stock. Ross is struggling at the October high at $49.50. I am raising our stop loss to $49.05.

Our target to exit is $49.75 and we came VERY close today at $49.62. We don't want to give back our gains so tight stop and look for an exit.

Entry on  February 13 at $46.43 (small positions)
Change since picked:     + 2.44   			
Earnings Date          03/18/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.4 million 
Listed on  February 13, 2009    


Raytheon Co - RTN - close: 56.83 change: +0.07 stop: 55.85 *NEW*

Another new high for RTN on news of some new contracts. Hardly a day goes by without news of a new deal. However, I am worried that RTN may be topping in this market. The lack of a material gain today is a caution signal.

Our stop loss is breakeven $55.85. Our target to exit is $59.50. Our time frame is four to six weeks.

Entry on  February 25 at $55.85
Change since picked:     + 0.98   			
Earnings Date          04/22/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       2.9 million 
Listed on  February 20, 2009    


BEARISH Play Updates

Ameritrade - AMTD - close: 17.39 change: -0.01 stop: 17.85 *NEW*

This is like watching paint dry. AMTD is going in the right direction but gras grows faster than this. Hopefully if we get a negative day in the market we will see a bigger decline in AMTD. The first target is $16.75. Our second target is $15.05.

Entry on   January 28 at $17.88 
Change since picked:     - 0.48   			
Earnings Date          04/21/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       6.1 million 
Listed on   January 28, 2009    


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Patterson Companies - PDCO - close: 31.02 change: +0.90 *Untriggered*

James WAS looking for a return to support at the 50-day average ($29) for an entry. I believe the spike on Tuesday negated this trade. I don't want to chase it higher and I doubt it will be back at $29 any time soon.

chart:

Entry on  February xx at $xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 29.00
Change since picked:     + 0.00   			
Earnings Date          05/20/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       1.4 million 
Listed on  February 20, 2009    


BRCD - Brocade Communications - $5.64, -0.10, CLOSED

I was successful in picking the only tech stock that has not gone up in the last two days. I am cutting my losses and exiting at the open on Wednesday with a 22-cent loss.

chart:

Entry on  March 01 at $5.86 
Change since picked:     - 0.22   			
Earnings Date          02/22/10 
Average Daily Volume: 42 Million  
Listed on  February 28, 2009    


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

PACCAR Inc. - PCAR - close: 37.11 change: +0.68 stopped @ 36.65

The positive auto sales news was too much for PCAR shorts and they ran for the exits.

chart:

Entry on  February 23 at $34.90
Change since picked:     - 1.75   			
Earnings Date          04/28/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       3.1 million 
Listed on  February 20, 2009    


Yum Brands - YUM - close: 34.09 change: +0.20 stopped @ 34.15

Minor move but it was enough to hit my lowered stop. The tone of this stock changed over the last 3 days from rolling over to recovering.

chart:

Entry on  February 23 at $33.73 /gap open entry
Change since picked:     + 0.42   			
Earnings Date          02/24/10 (unconfirmed)    
Average Daily Volume:       4.3 million 
Listed on  February 23, 2010