Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Direct TV - DTV - close 38.47 change -0.08 stop 35.70

Target(s): 38.20, 38.50, 39.50, 41.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 38.60, 37.00, 36.30
Current Gain/Loss: N/A
Time Frame: Several weeks
New Positions: Waiting to be triggered

Comments:
I am keeping the set-up on this trade the same and waiting for the stock to trade near its 50-day SMA prior to entering. It has to trade down there and we will be ready to pounce on the stock when it does. The 50-day SMA is currently $36.70 and it is rising but placing an order slightly above this is suggested.

Suggested Position: Long DTV stock if it trades down near $36.80 which is just above its 50-day SMA

Option Traders:
Suggested Position: Buy July $37.00 CALL, current ask $2.24, estimated ask at entry $1.40

Annotated chart:

Entry on June xx
Earnings Date 8/5/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 12.3 million
Listed on 6/5/10


Quest Software - QSFT - close 19.35 change +0.59 stop 18.58

Target(s): 19.50, 20.00, 20.50, 21.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 18.40, 18.70, 19.36, 20-day SMA, 50-day SMA
Current Gain/Loss: +1.84%
Time Frame: Several weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
QSFT is gaining momentum and I expect it to hit our target(s) this week. I have adjusted our first target to $19.50. I can't figure out why the July $20 call option has lost money when the stock has gained in value. The delta is .41 which means that for every price move in the underlying stock the price of the option should move at a rate of 41% of the move. So if QSFT gained 50 cents the price of the option would increase by about 20 cents, or about +24% of our entry price. I suspect the volatility has been sucked out of the premium we paid. I doubt it has to do with time decay because there are still 5 weeks left until July expiry. In any event, if the volatility is decreasing in the stock it should bode well for another push higher this week. I suggest selling into further strength this week or tighten stops to protect any profits. A tighter stop could be placed $18.90.

Current Position: Long QSFT stock at $19.00

Option Traders:
Suggested Position: Buy July $20.00 CALL

Annotated chart:

Entry on June 7, 2010
Earnings Date 8/10/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.9 million
Listed on 6/2/10


BEARISH Play Updates

Bank of Nova Scotia Halifax - BNS - close 48.39 change +0.22 stop 49.55

Target(s): 46.30, 45.15, 44.05, 42.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 49.00, 48.30, 48.00, 47.40, 46.30, 45.00
Current Gain/Loss: -1.66%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes, with a tight stop

Comments:
BNS closed right on its downtrend line that I think will hold as resistance. It is now above a key support/resistance level at $47.40 which is concerning. The overall strength or weakness is most likely going to determine the fate of this trade. I am looking for BNS to at least trade back down to its 200-day SMA which is near our first target of $46.30. I have adjusted our stop to $49.55 which is above the 50-day SMA and a recent gap so if BNS decides to fill the gap we should be protected.

Current Position: Short BNS stock at $47.60

Option Traders:
Suggested Position: Buy July $45.00 PUT

Annotated chart:

Entry on June 9, 2010
Earnings 8/26/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 685,000
Listed on June 8, 2010


iShares Russell 2000 - IWM - close 63.75 change +0.04 stop 66.60

Target(s): 62.10, 60.75, 59.50, 58.75
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 64.50, 63.30, 62.60, 61.50, 60.70, 58.00
Current Gain/Loss: Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks

Comments:
We are short IWM at $64.25. IWM closed right on its downtrend line and is just below its declining 20-day SMA. This is a lot for the index to overcome and I believe it will reverse to at least retest its closing lows near $62.10. Our new stop will $65.75. This trade could be quick so I urge readers to protect profits if IWM is moving in our direction.

Current Position: Short IWM stock at $64.25

Option Traders:
Suggested Position: Buy July $63.00 PUT, current ask $2.80

Annotated chart:

Entry on June xx
Earnings N/A (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 101 million
Listed on June 9, 2010



CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Petroleo Brasileiro SA - PBR - close 38.32 change -0.25 stop 37.65

Target(s): 38.50 (HIT), 39.25, 39.95
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 37.45, 36.25
Final Gain/Loss: +2.26%
Time Frame: 1 week
New Positions: Closed

Comments:
We closed PBR at our target of $38.50 which was also hit on Thursday. We are flat the position for a +23.4% gain. For readers who still have positions the above targets, stop, and support/resistance areas can be used as a guide to protect profits. PBR may have some room to run here but I would rather take the profit than be surprised with a gap down in the market that could wipe out profits.

Closed Position: Long PBR stock at $38.50, entry was at $37.65

Entry on June 9, 2010
Earnings Date 8/13/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 19.6 million
Listed on 6/8/10



CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Altera Corp - ALTR - close 24.38 change +0.81 stop 24.25

Target(s): 23.15, 22.60
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 24.15, 23.80, 23.15
Final Gain/Loss: -1.89% Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks

Comments:
The head and shoulders pattern on ALTR failed and the stock ran right up through our stop. So we are right out of the trade as instructed in the play release. Considering the immense strength in ALTR on Friday morning positions really should not have been opened. It was apparent the pattern was going to fail in the first 30 minutes of trading. For any readers who have positions I suggest placing a stop above the opening range on Monday and see if ALTR reverses. There is resistance right where the stock closed and it could be forming a double top with the highs from 6/3 and 6/4 and is also approaching its 50-day SMA from below. I actually like the short set-up here with a tight stop at $23.75 which is above the 50-day SMA. In hindsight we probably should have waited for ALTR to reach its 50-day SMA and then entered a short position but I saw the head shoulders pattern and was anticipating a move lower off of the right shoulder. I've provided an hourly chart for illustration.

Closed Position: Short ALTR stock at $24.25, entry was at $23.80

Annotated chart:

Entry on June 11, 2010
Earnings 7/20/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 9.7 million
Listed on June 10, 2010