Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

TD Ameritrade - AMTD - close 16.27 change -0.15 stop 15.68

Target(s): 17.14, 17.90, 18.20
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 16.40, 17.50, 17.90, 18.40
Current Gain/Loss: -0.91%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
6/28: AMTD peeked its head below the long term support level at $16.40. If the stock follows through to the downside tomorrow conservative traders may wan to consider exiting the position. But the stock is oversold and is due for a bounce. I've adjusted the first target to $17.14 which is below AMTD's 20-day SMA and a prior support level. t a minimum this is good place to tighten stops if the stock trades up to this level.

6/26: AMTD has come into an interesting support area in the $16.00 to $16.50 area dating back to January 2008 (see the weekly chart below). I believe the stock is poised to bounce from here. We're not looking to hit a home run here but simply catch a move up towards the stock's daily 20 and possibly 50-SMA's (see a daily chart). A $1 move will give us a +6% gain. Fundamentally, AMTD trades at a lower P/E ratio than many of its online brokerage peers. This is a countertrend trade at a key support level on a good company with strong fundamentals. Our stop will be $15.68.

Current Position: Long AMTD stock, entry was at $16.42

Options Traders:
Suggested Position: August $15.00 CALLS

Entry on June 28, 2010
Earnings Date 7/20/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.1 million
Listed on June 26, 2010


Hanson Natural Corp - HANS - close 40.42 change +0.69 stop 38.25

Target(s): 40.50 (hit), 41.25, 42.40, 43.25
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 42.50, 41.00, 40.25, 39.30, 38.50
Current Gain/Loss: +2.54% Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
6/28: HANS closed above it 50-day SMA today and is maintaining the upward trend line that started on 5/7. The stock also traded to a new high that hasn't been since 5/18. Our first target of $40.50 was hit today but I think we have a good chance of hitting $41.25 so I am going to leave this open to see if we can get some follow through in the coming days.

6/26: HANS continues to make higher lows and if there is strength in the broader market early this week I believe our targets will be hit. On Friday the stock was increasing in the morning as the market was making now lows. The volume patterns are also bullish as the pullbacks tend to come on lighter volume. This shows me there may be institutions buying in this stock which bodes well for a bullish thesis. I've made some minor adjustments to the targets.

6/24: HANS printed a bullish engulfing candlestick today and closed +1.15% higher, despite the significant weakness in the broader market. The market should bounce soon, if not tomorrow, and this should bode well for HANS. The stock was turned back from its 50-day SMA today for the second time in the last 4 trading sessions. If it keeps knocking it should break through, and with the broader market in oversold conditions itching for a bounce, I expect this to happen and our targets to be hit. The 20-day and 200-day SMA are also providing support for the stock.

Current Position: Long HANS stock, entry was at $39.42

Options Traders:
Suggested Position: August $40.00 CALLS

Entry on June 23, 2010
Earnings Date 8/5/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million
Listed on 6/22/10


BEARISH Play Updates

Avon Products - AVP - close 27.78 change +0.29 stop 29.65

Target(s): 25.80, 25.25, 24.25
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 29.50, 29.00, 28.00, 27.17, 25.75, 25.00
Current Gain/Loss: -0.58%
Time Frame: Several weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
6/28: AVP found some support at its 20-day SMA which also corresponds to its late May highs. AVP could bounce from here if the market does but I believe it will be short lived. Our stop is high enough to account for volatility and I expect the stock to trade down to $25.80 within the next week or so.

6/26: AVP ran into prior support and its 50-day SMA this past week and is now turning lower. The stock made a lower high and I believe it is due to make a lower low, or at least retest its recent lows near $25.00. If we simply catch a portion of this move we will have a nice profitable trade. Our primary target is $25.25 but I have also listed $25.80 as a target which is an area to consider tightening stops or taking profits. If the selling picks up AVP could go all the way down to the $24.00 area which was a prior support/resistance level from 10/08 and 5/09. Our stop is $29.65 and our time frame is several weeks.

Suggested Position: Short AVP stock, entry was at 27.62

Option Traders: Buy August $27.00 PUTS

Entry on June 28, 2010
Earnings 7/29/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.2 million
Listed on June 26, 2010


Grand Canyon Education - LOPE - close 24.08 change +0.58 stop 25.86 *NEW*

Target(s): 21.80, 20.80, 20.05
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 25.00, 24.25, 23.00, 21.50, 20.00
Current Gain/Loss: -3.21%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
new Positions: Yes

Comments:
6/28: LOPE did not act as I suspected today as the stock gained +2.47%. However, LOPE was turned away at its 50-day SMA and closed below our key support level at $24.25. The stock also remains in a downtrend and the stock sold off -2.35% in the last hour of trading so sellers are alive and well. The rally may have had something to do with short covering and speculation about the probes from Washington into the for-profit education sector. Volatility was expected in this position and I don't expect that to change. I've adjusted our stop up to $25.86 which is above the primary downtrend line. NOTE: This sector is volatile and I suggest small position size to manage risk. This is also a highly contentious sector and is being driven by news. There are three employment reports this week and if any of them are better than expected it could negatively affect the short term direction of education stocks, which will be good for our position. If the reports turn out to be worse than expected LOPE may be positively affected. But I believe there is enough resistance overhead to keep bounces in check.

6/26: Education stocks have come under political fire recently and are now being probed by pundits in Washington. There was a hearing on Thursday afternoon in which Senators criticized for-profit universities. This uncertainty has put pressure on many stocks in the sector and I believe it is far from over. According to Chronicles of Higher Education reporter Marc Perry, who observed the hearing, he had this say: At the conclusion of hearings about the for-profit education sector, Senator Tom Harkin said he doesn't think that any "reasonably objective" observer can say that nothing is wrong with the sector, and added that hearings about the sector will continue next month. One unnamed senator kept repeating the word "scam" during the hearing. Senator Al Franken, a Minnesota Democrat, repeatedly said that he wants "to shut the for-profit universities down," and asked one witness "What kind of laws do we need to pass to shut'em down?" This is not good for the sector. LOPE has made a series of lower highs and lower lows and I see no reason why this stock will not trade down to its 200-day SMA (currently $21.41). Our first target is $21.80 and I have provided two more aggressive targets should the selling intensify. LOPE has two primary downtrend lines overhead along with its 20-day, 200-day, and 100-day SMA's all turning lower. This should provide plenty of resistance and keep any bounces in check. Our initial stop will be $25.68 to account for short term volatility. NOTE: This sector is volatile and I suggest small position size to manage risk. This is also a highly contentious sector and is being driven by news. There are three employment reports this week and if any of them are better than expected it could negatively affect the short term direction of education stocks, which will be good for our position. If the reports turn out to be worse than expected LOPE may be positively affected. But I believe there is enough resistance overhead to keep bounces in check.

Current Position: Short LOPE stock, entry was at 23.33

Option Traders: Buy August $25.00 PUTS, current ask $2.60

Entry on June 28, 2010
Earnings 8/3/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 429,000
Listed on June 26, 2010


Macy's - M - close 18.82 change -0.20 stop 21.70

Target(s): 18.90, 18.10
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 22.25, 21.25, 20.90, 20.25, 19.40, 18.00
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks

Comments:
6/28: We are waiting for our trigger to enter short positions at $19.50. If we are patient I think M will trade up to this level. There is a lot of overhead resistance to keep bounces in check and this is good level to try a short position.

6/26: I've adjusted our trigger to enter short positions to $19.50. I'm expecting the market to bounce from here and M should trade up to our trigger in the coming days. I'll leave my comments from the play release. M collapsed Thursday closing -6% lower and near our 2nd target of $18.90. I still believe the stock will trade down to $18.10 but I do not suggest chasing it at these levels. The broader market should bounce from here and I suspect M will as well. But these bounces should be short lived and I suggest we take advantage them. As such, I have adjusted the entry trigger to $19.50 and the suggested option position. M broke down on 6/23 out of a descending triangle but was saved with a rally. The stock is hanging on to a thread and I do not see any reason why the stock will not continue its descent. The broader market may bounce higher but there is plenty of resistance overhead to keep M in check. I suggest we use $19.50 as a trigger to enter short positions. The next level of meaningful support is all the down near $18.00 which are highs from December. I am going to place a wide initial stop at $21.70 to account for volatility and will adjust it once we are in the position.

Suggested Position: Short M stock if it trades up to $19.50

Option Traders: Buy August $20.00 PUTS, current ask $2.00, estimated ask at entry $1.70

Entry on June xx
Earnings 8/12/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 11.7 million
Listed on June 23, 2010


Whirlpool Corp - WHR - close 95.64 change -1.01 stop 105.50

Target(s): 94.10, 91.50, 86.05
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 101.70, 99.00, 97.50, 94.00, 85.25
Current Gain/Loss: +1.91%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
6/28: WHR traded up to our trigger 0f $97.50 to enter short positions. The stock hit a brick wall and sold off the remainder the day. Our primary target is $91.50 but $94.10 may provide support. This is an area to consider tightening stops and protecting profits. If WHR bounces I believe there is enough overhead resistance to keep things in check, but we may have to exhibit some patience.

6/26: We are waiting to be triggered at $97.50 to enter short positions. My comments remain the same from Thursday. I still believe WHR has a good chance to trade down to $91.50 and eventually $86.05 but I do not suggest chasing it at these levels. The broader market should bounce from here and I suspect WHR will as well. But these bounces should be short lived and I suggest we take advantage them. I have lowered our entry to short positions to $97.50. My comments from the play release remain the same. WHR has been making lower highs and has broken many trend lines. The stock has one more trend line providing support from the July lows to the February lows. However, I think it only a matter of time before this is broken and the stock retests or breaks its recent lows near $91.50. WHR is also below its 20-day and 50-day SMA's and I think there is enough overhead resistance to enter short positions at $97.50, which is below Thursday's highs and the 20-day SMA. I am going to place a wide initial stop at $105.50 to account for volatility and will adjust it once we are in the position.

Suggested Position: Short WHR stock if it trades up to $97.50

Option Traders: Buy August $95.00 PUTS current ask $6.80, estimated ask at entry $6.40

Entry on June 28, 2010
Earnings 7/21/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2 million
Listed on June 23, 2010