BULLISH Play Updates
PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund - DBA - close 24.43 change +0.54 stop 23.80 *NEW*
Target(s): 24.60, 24.95
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 25.00, 24.70, 24.40, 23.55, 23.40
Current Gain/Loss: +2.22%
Time Frame: Several weeks
New Positions: Yes, preferably on weakness
7/7: We are long DBA as of the open today. The stock printed a bullish engulfing candlestick on its daily chart and closed above its 100-day SMA. The ETF maintained its upward trend line and also made a higher high. DBA is gaining momentum and I am expecting our targets to be hit, possibly this week. In addition, the stock has now closed above and broken two downtrend lines. My only suggestion is to protect profits if DBA continues higher. I'm going to tighten the stop to $23.80 which is below yesterday's low.
7/6: DBA has broken a downtrend line that began on 1/6/10. The ETF has struggled with a secondary downtrend line but I think its only a matter of time before DBA makes another push higher and breaks through it. DBA also appears to be forming a higher low on its daily chart. Today the ETF sold off to its 20-day SMA from above. I am expecting this support hold and for DBA to make a run up towards its 200-day SMA which is currently just over $25.00. Our most aggressive target is $24.95 while our first target is $24.60. We will use a tight stop at $23.25 which below May's lows.
Current Position: Long DBA stock, entry was $23.90
Suggested Position: August $23.00 CALLS
Entry on July 7, 2010
Earnings Date N/A (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 792,000
Listed on 7/6/10
BEARISH Play Updates
Informatica Corporation - INFA - close 24.96 change +0.57 stop 26.10
Target(s): 23.82, 23.00, 22.75, 22.15
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 25.35, 24.60, 23.80, 23.25, 22.60, 22.00
Current Gain/Loss: -1.67%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes, on bounces
7/7: INFA shot up to $25.00 this morning and stalled while the broader market continued to march higher. The stock still has to contend with its 20-day and 50-day SMA's if the bounce continues. My feeling is we may see an intraday bounce but I also feel it will be sold into so I suggest we be patient and see how things play out this week.
7/6: INFA traded up to its 200-day SMA today and then backed off. It remains below all of its major SMA's which should keep any bounces in check. I'm going to list another target of $23.82 which is near Friday's closing price. If INFA trades down here prior to bouncing I suggest we take profits on this trade, or at least tighten stops to protect against a reversal.
7/3: INFA is a volatile stock and has been barely hanging on to its 200-day SMA since the flash crash. The stock has been whipped around and has now closed below its 200-day SMA for the fourth consecutive day. I expect INFA to bounce up to retest the 200-day SMA from below before falling to retest its February lows, which is near our 2nd target of $22.75. Considering the recent price patterns over the past few months one may think INFA could bounce higher, but I'm not counting on it bouncing too much higher than the 200-day SMA considering the bearish tone of the past two weeks. But we may need to exhibit some patience once in the position. Let's use a trigger of $24.55 to initiate short positions. Our primary target is $22.75 but I have also listed $23.30 which is a good place to consider tightening stops. We'll use a wide stop of $26.10 which is above the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day SMA's but it will be adjusted once we are in the position. I will be surprised to see INFA much higher than $25.00 anytime soon. $24.88 is the 38.2% retracement from the stock's recent high to Thursday's low which will also converge with the declining 20-day and 50-day SMA's.
Current Position: Short INFA stock, entry was at $24.55
Option Traders: August $25.00 PUT
Entry on July 6, 2010
Earnings 7/22/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.72 million
Listed on July 1, 2010
Lululemon Athletica Inc. - LULU - close 37.58 change +1.53 stop 43.10
Target(s): 35.25, 34.05, 33.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 42.25, 39.75, 37.00, 35.16, 32.75
Time Frame: 1 week
7/7: LULU rallied +4.24% higher today and is getting closer to our short entry trigger at $39.25. If the stock trades to this level I feel comfortable suggesting a short position as it will be the first time the stock approaches its 50-day SMA since breaking it on 6/25. The 20-day SMA is also overhead, along with a downtrend line which will provide even more resistance. I think patience will pay off for us on this trade.
7/6: LULU came within 15 cents of hitting our trigger to enter short positions today, and then reversed down. The stock has faced a barrage of selling recently and is coming into a prior support/resistance area near our first target of $35.25. If the stock keeps testing this area the support should eventually break. I only wish LULU and the market were not so oversold. I am expecting this stock to bounce, maybe even up to its 50-day SMA which is near $40.00. Considering the conditions I would like to raise our entry back to $39.25 (below the 50-day SMA). If we are patient and get a good short entry it should pay off.
7/3: This is an example of a stock not letting shorts in for swing trade. It may be wishful thinking to expect LULU to bounce all the way up to $39.25 after the selling pressure on Friday. It would be ideal to see LULU make a run up towards its declining 50-day SMA which would be the first time testing it from below since it was broken on 6/28. But I doubt that will happen so I suggest we lower our trigger to enter to $38.40 which is just below Thursday's high. In the end, I think LULU trades down to its 200-day SMA but if it keeps declining prior to bouncing we may lose our chance. For readers who trade intraday LULU provides some good opportunities and if things are moving fast (up or down) this is a good stock to consider trading.
Suggested Position: Short LULU stock if it trades up to $39.25
Option Traders: Buy August $35.00 PUTS if LULU trades to $39.25, current ask $2.05, estimated ask at entry $1.55
Entry on July xx
Earnings 9/9/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.89 million
Listed on July 1, 2010
Starbucks Corp. - SBUX - close 23.61 change -0.73 stop 26.31
Target(s): 23.70, 22.55, 21.30
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 26.50, 26.00, 25.25, 24.80, 24.00, 23.60, 22.50
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
Why We Like It:
7/6: SBUX came with 6 cents of our trigger to enter short positions and then proceeded close down -3.04%. I'm expecting SBUX to bounce with the broader market so I suggest being patient and ready to short the stock if it trades to our trigger of $24.75.
7/3: Last week SBUX broke below a trend line that began in October 2009 and collapsed below it 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day SMA's. These SMA's (in particular the 100-day SMA) have been key areas where the stock has bounced during its rally over the past year. And now that the stock is below them it has probably seen its best days, at least for awhile. I would like to use a trigger of $24.75 to enter short positions which is below the stock's 100-day SMA, the underside of the broken trend line, and the recent steep downtrend line, all of which are converging (see oval on chart). The $25.00 area could also be considered an entry point but I chosen $24.75 because it is near Friday's highs which could possibly form a double top on the intraday charts. Our primary target is $22.55 but I have also listed $23.70 as area to consider tightening stops. It is above the 200-day SMA which SBUX has not touched in over a year.
Suggested Position: Short SBUX stock if it trades to $24.75
Options Traders: August $25.00 PUTS, current ask $1.61, estimated ask at entry $1.44
Entry on July xx
Earnings 7/21/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10 million
Listed on July 3, 2010