Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund - DBA - close 24.49 change -0.05 stop 24.28

Target(s): 24.60 (hit), 24.95
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 25.00, 24.70, 24.40, 23.55, 23.40
Current Gain/Loss: +2.47%
Time Frame: Several weeks
New Positions: No

Comments:
7/12: DBA is forming a bull flag and I am expecting the ETF to break higher. Call activity has been picking up in the ETF with 2,000 August contracts purchased today. This bodes well for our bullish position and I am looking for our final target of $24.95 to be hit, possibly this week. $24.60 is still a valid target that was hit last week and we have a relatively tight stop to protect against reversal.

7/10: We are hanging in here with DBA. I adjusted the stop down a few cents to $24.28 which is below Thursday's low and the 100-day SMA. This stop guarantees us of a winning position if DBA reverses lower. Our first target of $24.60 was hit on Thursday and our current gain is +2.68%. It appears DBA is consolidating prior to moving higher. We are looking for $24.95.

7/7: We are long DBA as of the open today. The stock printed a bullish engulfing candlestick on its daily chart and closed above its 100-day SMA. The ETF maintained its upward trend line and also made a higher high. DBA is gaining momentum and I am expecting our targets to be hit, possibly this week. In addition, the stock has now closed above and broken two downtrend lines. My only suggestion is to protect profits if DBA continues higher. I'm going to tighten the stop to $23.80 which is below yesterday's low.

Current Position: Long DBA stock, entry was $23.90

Options Traders:
Suggested Position: August $23.00 CALLS

Entry on July 7, 2010
Earnings Date N/A (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 792,000
Listed on 7/6/10


Merck & Co - MRK - close 36.09 change -0.21 stop 34.79 *corrected*

Target(s): 37.20, 37.75, 38.60, 39.35
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 39.50, 38.75, 38.00, 36.35, 35.80
Current Gain/Loss: +0.67%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
7/12: MRK traded down to $35.84 in early trading which triggered our long entry. The stock then drifted higher throughout the day. MRK appears to be forming a bull flag on its daily chart. A break above Thursday's high of $36.40 should get things moving higher relatively quick. Since we were able to get the lower entry trigger today I am going to offer a lowered 1st target of $37.20 which is a good place to consider at least consider tightening stops. I've also adjusted our primary target of $37.95 down 20 cents to $37.75.

7/10: MRK is building an ascending triangle on its daily chart with resistance near a key pivot level for the stock at $36.35. The stock formed a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern that began with the left head in April (see large ovals on chart). If MRK trades above Friday's highs there is little resistance until about $38.00. Earnings are at the end of July and I expect this stock to make a run. I suggest we use any weakness to initiate long positions or a break above Friday's highs, whichever occurs first. The stock has closed above its 100-day, 200-day, and 20-day SMA's which are all converging so I don't expect too much pullback from here. Let's use a trigger of $36.50 and $35.85 to initiate long positions. Our stop will be $34.79 which is below all of the aforementioned SMA's and the lows from 6/21 and 6/23.

Current Position: Long MRK stock, entry was at $35.85

Options Traders: August $36.00 CALLS

Entry on July 12, 2010
Earnings Date 7/30/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 18 million
Listed on 7/10/10


Suntech Power Holdings - STP - close 10.57 change -0.80 stop 10.09 *NEW*

Target(s): 10.73, 10.93, 11.35, 11.90, 12.15
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 10.50, 9.90
Current Gain/Loss: -0.75%
Time Frame: Several weeks
New Positions: No

Comments:
7/12: STP retraced the gains I was looking for which triggered our entry for long positions at $10.65. This morning Citigroup initiated coverage in STP with a sell rating while at the same time initiating TSL with a buy and YGE with a hold. This appears to be the main reason the stock sold off -7% today. There have been a slew of other downgrades from analysts in recent weeks which has beaten down STP so let's just say Citi is late to the party. I don't necessarily mind that because when the selling ends opportunities for long positions begin to surface as sellers wane and buyers appear. In other words STP has already taken the medicine from the previous downgrades and the most recent from Citi may begin to exhaust sellers again. From a technical perspective the bullish case remains intact as STP closed above its break out resistance level of $10.50. And if the market continues to bounce STP should see buyers step in. However, in lieu of today's news it is prudent to begin looking for an exit on this trade. I am going to raise the stop to $10.09 which is just below the 50-day SMA and I have also tightened the targets. $10.73 and $10.93 are intraday support/resistance levels and are good places to consider tightening stops or taking profits. Conservative traders should consider simply exiting positions. Going forward I plan to tighten the stops daily to see if we can turn this into a winning trade. NOTE: STP is a volatile stock and I view this as a speculative play. Please use proper position size to limit risk.

7/10: STP broke out of a key resistance area at $10.50 on Thursday and continued higher on Friday. STP has now closed above its 50-day SMA for the first time since late April. The stock made a higher low and a higher high. STP is in a longer term downtrend but has some room to run before reaching the primary downtrend lines and overhead resistance. I am looking for STP to retrace some of last week's gains and suggest readers initiate long positions in the stock if it trades to $10.65. This is just above Friday's low and the $10.50 prior resistance area that should now act as support. If we get filled the stock has some room to move higher. Our first target is near Friday's high and would represent a +6.5% gain if the position play out as expected. NOTE: STP is a volatile stock and I view this as a speculative play. Please use proper position size to limit risk.

Current Position: Long STP stock, entry was at $10.65

Options Traders: August $10.00 CALLS

Entry on July 12, 2010
Earnings Date 8/19/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.5 million
Listed on 7/10/10


BEARISH Play Updates

Informatica Corporation - INFA - close 25.40 change -0.07 stop 26.10

Target(s): 24.80, 23.82, 23.00, 22.75, 22.15
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 25.35, 24.60, 23.80, 23.25, 22.60, 22.00
Current Gain/Loss: -3.46%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
7/12: INFA printed a topping tail candlestick on Monday and I am looking for the stock to move lower from here. My comments from 7/10 remain the same.

7/10: INFA has retraced about 50% of its recent decline and finds itself right at its 20-day and 50-day SMA's. I didn't think the stock would get much higher than $25.00 on any bounce but have been proven wrong. There is some congestion overhead to provide resistance and this is a logical place for the stock make a lower high and reverse, but the broader market direction will most likely determine our fate on this position. I have added a target of $24.80 for readers looking for a quick exit and to limit losses on this position. This is just above the 200-day SMA and the high from 7/6. This may provide some support on a pullback and is a good area to tighten stops.

7/7: INFA shot up to $25.00 this morning and stalled while the broader market continued to march higher. The stock still has to contend with its 20-day and 50-day SMA's if the bounce continues. My feeling is we may see an intraday bounce but I also feel it will be sold into so I suggest we be patient and see how things play out this week.

7/6: INFA traded up to its 200-day SMA today and then backed off. It remains below all of its major SMA's which should keep any bounces in check. I'm going to list another target of $23.82 which is near Friday's closing price. If INFA trades down here prior to bouncing I suggest we take profits on this trade, or at least tighten stops to protect against a reversal. Current Position: Short INFA stock, entry was at $24.55

Option Traders: August $25.00 PUT

Entry on July 6, 2010
Earnings 7/22/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.72 million
Listed on July 1, 2010


Lululemon Athletica Inc. - LULU - close 38.87 change -0.02 stop 41.30 *NEW*

Target(s): 37.20, 35.80, 34.55, 33.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 42.25, 39.75, 37.00, 35.16, 32.75
Current Gain/Loss: +0.72%
Time Frame: 1 week
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
7/12: Finally, LULU hit our trigger of $39.15 to enter short positions. The stock immediately lost $1.25 and then recovered. One thing is clear on the intraday charts and that is the volume when the stock was declining this morning was much greater compared to its recovery. I like the volume pattern and think LULU retests its lows before breaking higher. Should it break higher the 50-day SMA sits at $39.87 which should keep things under control. I've also listed a target of $37.20 which is just above a key support/resistance area of $37.00. Some might view this level as forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern on the hourly chart so it would be prudent to consider tightening stops at this level. This level will also produce a decent gain in the position.

7/10: LULU is getting ever so close to our entry. The stock traded to within 8 cents on Friday and backed off. The bounce over the past few days has been on extremely light volume showing a lack of participation. This is one of the most bloated retail stocks out there trading at a P/E of 38. It is a novelty retailer and sometimes the P/E doesn't matter so I will keep a tight leash on this and use a stop of $41.30 which is just above the 20-day and 50-day SMA's. LULU has not tested them from below since breaking through them in June. I like the short set-up and want to lower the entry trigger to $39.15. I have also adjusted the targets. I'm looking for LULU to make quick trip back down to test its lows and possibly break them.

Current Position: Short LULU stock, entry was at $39.15

Option Traders: August $35.00 PUTS

Entry on July xx
Earnings 9/9/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.89 million
Listed on July 1, 2010


PowerShares QQQQ Trust - QQQQ - close 44.75 change +0.13 stop 46.90

Target(s): 43.75, 42.55, 41.80, 41.05
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 46.77, 45.25, 44.46, 43.50, 42.50, 41.00
Current gain/loss: -1.02%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
7/12: QQQQ backed off right at its 20-day SMA this morning which also corresponds to the ETF's February highs. This level is a logical reversal point for QQQQ, however, Intel reports earnings tomorrow after the bell so that is the wild card for the short term price direction. I've adjusted our near term target to $43.75 which is just above the lows on 7/8.

7/10: QQQQ is bouncing but I expect the selling to resume soon. In light of the choppy trading that I foresee I am going offer a near term target of $43.60 which is $1 lower than current levels. For readers in PUT positions they should be worth about $2.15 (entry was at $1.85) which would be a +16% gain. This target is near the June 8 low and may form an inverse head and shoulders pattern. I suggest being quick to tighten stops at this level to protect profits. QQQQ may bounce up to its 20-day or 50-day SMA just overhead before reversing so I suggest being patient. There was a lot of volume in the August PUT strikes on Friday and large blocks bought on the offer. This is a good sign for a move lower but earnings is the wild card.

7/7: QQQQ had a monster truck rally today but I believe this will be short lived. The ETF is nearing an important resistance level at $44.46 and has all of its SMA's and plenty of congestion overhead to act as resistance. The rectangle on the chart represents a gap that I suppose could get filled so conservative traders may consider waiting to enter at $45.00. I'm just not confidant the gap will get filled. Today was a relief rally and we may get a little more but I think the selling will resume again and QQQQ should easily retest its lows and possibly break them. Let's use a trigger of $44.30 to initiate short positions. Our stop is $46.90 and I do not see QQQQ trading up to this level prior to breaking down again.

Current Position: Short QQQQ stock, entry was at $44.30

Options Traders: August $45.00 PUTS

Entry on July 8, 2010
Earnings N/A (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 100 million
Listed on July 7, 2010


Sherwin-Williams - SHW - close 72.02 change -0.21 stop 76.70

Target(s): 70.50, 69.25, 68.35, 67.05
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 75.90, 73.50, 71.10, 69.00, 68.00, 66.50
Current Gain/Loss: +1.00%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
7/12: SHW pulled a repeat of Friday in that the stock opened higher and drifted lower the entire day. Any market weakness should send this stock lower towards our targets. I want to offer another target of $70.50 which is just above the resistance highs (which may now act as support) from 7/1 to 7/6. This level will give us a +3% gain and is an area to consider tightening stops to protect profits.

7/10: We opened short positions in SHW at the open on Friday. The stock proceed to drift lower the entire day. I am expecting the stock to reverse lower from here as it has rallied into resistance and its 20-day SMA from below. Our first target is $69.25.

7/8: SHW broke below a key support level of $73.40 and has now rallied almost back up to that level. This should provide resistance along with the declining 20-day SMA. I expect the stock to at least retest its recent lows which are $3 to $4 lower than current prices, and possibly even the 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA is also overhead and we will place our stop just above it at $76.70. The stop will be adjusted once we are in the position. I like shorting the stock at current levels but readers could wait to see if SHW rallies up to its 20-day SMA which is 50 to 75 cents higher.

Current Position: Short SHW stock., entry was at $72.75

Options Traders: August $70.00 PUTS

Entry on July 9, 2010
Earnings 7/22/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.48 million
Listed on July 8, 2010


Starbucks Corp. - SBUX - close 25.27 change -0.03 stop 26.75

Target(s): 24.25, 23.70, 22.55, 21.30
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 26.50, 26.00, 25.25, 24.80, 24.00, 23.60, 22.50
Current Gain/Loss: -2.10%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes, with a tight stop

Comments:
7/12: SBUX sold off this morning but drifted higher the remainder of the day. SBUX has resistance at current levels and I am looking for the stock to make a lower high and reverse to retest its lows.

7/10: SBUX has retraced some of its recent decline as the market has bounced. The stock is testing its 100-day SMA from below and the backside of its broken upward trend line for the first time since breaking in late June. The 100-day SMA has been an important reference point for the stock in 2010. We are also near an important support/resistance level of $25.25 so this is a logical place for SBUX to reverse back down. However, the broader market direction will most determine our fate on this position. A tighter stop could be placed at $25.80 but the bounce may go a little further so patience is suggested. I am looking for SBUX to make a lower high and reverse back down to at least retest its lows. I like new positions at these levels.

Current Position: Short SBUX stock, entry was at $24.25

Options Traders: August $25.00 PUTS

Entry on July 8, 2010
Earnings 7/21/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10 million
Listed on July 3, 2010