Current Portfolio:


BEARISH Play Updates

Crown Holdings - CCK - close 27.73 change -0.32 stop 28.38

Target(s): 27.60(hit), 27.35, 27.00, 26.80
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 27.35, 27.00, 26.25, 25.90, 25.50, 25.00
Current Gain/Loss: -0.62%
Time Frame: 1 week
New Positions: No

Comments:
7/26: CCK closed down -1.14% and hit our target of $27.60 this afternoon. I expect there to be a pullback in the broader market and I think we will be able to exit positions at a better price. If this correction comes I suspect it may be fast so please use the above targets as a guide to tighten stops or exit positions. My comments from 7/24 have not changed.

7/24: My thesis of a daily reversal bar and pullback in CCK has failed so far. We have a tight stop overhead to limit losses should the stock continue defying gravity. CCK gained about +10% last week and it is way overdue for a retracement. The stock (and the broader market in general) need a retracement to regain some steam before there can be any sustained move higher. I suspect the market will do this early next week which is when I suggest we exit positions. I have listed four tight targets above which can be used as a guide to tighten stops and exit positions. Ideally, trailing stops down will get the most out of this trade and protect against the hard reversals we have been experiencing lately. Our final target of $26.80 is close to a gap higher on 7/22 that needs to be filled and would produce a decent gain in the position. The small caps need to pullback and I suspect they will prior to moving much higher.

Current Position: Short CCK stock, entry was at $27.56

Options Traders: September $25.00 PUTS

Entry on July 22
Earnings 10/7/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.43 million
Listed on July 21, 2010


Costco Wholesale - COST - close 55.71 change -0.24 stop 57.25

Target(s): 55.40, 54.80, 54.30
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 56.80, 55.60, 54.25, 53.40, 51.50
Current Gain/Loss: -0.38%
Time Frame: 1 week
New Positions: No

Comments:
7/26: My comments from 7/24 have not changed. COST drifted lower the entire day and traded to within 5 cents of our first target above before bouncing. We are looking for a pullback in the broader market and COST should easily trade towards our revised targets giving us the chance to exit a winning position.

7/24: COST traded to $55.50 which triggered our entry for short positions. There is intraday resistance right at this level plus a downtrend line from 6/15 so this is a logical spot for COST to retrace some of the gains from the past two days. COST has now had two powerful rallies since 7/7 off of the $53.50 support level (i.e. double bottom). There is obviously a lot of support at this level and I just don't see it revisiting those lows for awhile. As such, we need to adjust so I suggest we stay nimble on this trade and begin looking for an exit. I have adjusted our targets above to use as a guide to tighten stops or simply take profits. I am looking for a small gain on this trade, nothing more. At a minimum COST should turn back to test its 20-day SMA near $55.40. Our next targets are $54.80 and $54.30. I expect the broader market to be weak early this week which should get COST moving towards these targets.

Current Position: Short COST stock, entry was at $55.50

Options Traders: September $55.00 PUTS

Entry on July xx
Earnings 10/7/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.76 million
Listed on July 20, 2010