Editor's Note:
Good evening. We were triggered on TGT and TIN today but are still waiting to be triggered on XLF and CNW. TCK and TBT both moved in the right direction while DIA is hanging out in a tight range.

Tomorrow afternoon is the FOMC announcement on the Fed's interest rate policy and general view of the economy. This has the chance to be a big market mover and may allow us the opportunity to exit or enter positions. The Fed's statement and/or actions could very well set the tone for market direction for the remainder of the summer. Staying nimble is paramount. Please feel free to email me with any questions.

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Target Corp - TGT - close: 53.35 change: +1.03 stop: 49.90

Target(s): 55.25, 57.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 50.00, 53.00, 55.25, 57.00, 58.00
Current Gain/Loss: +0.66%
Time Frame: Several Weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
8/9: We are long TGT in the model portfolio per the weekend play release. I have added $55.25 as a near term target. This is +4% from our entry point and near the stock's June highs. TGT may find some resistance here and its a good place to tighten stops to protect gains.

8/7: Retail stocks have been very resilient. News that consumer spending has slowed, that consumer sentiment is falling, that the savings rate is hitting one year highs, and a disappointing July same-store sales figures has not been enough to change the bullish trend in retail stocks. While I doubt how much longer this sector can ignore all the bad news there is no denying the short-term trend is higher. I suggest we take advantage of the move with a bullish positions in TGT. Open positions now with a stop loss at $49.90. More conservative traders may want to wait for a close over $53.00 or its 100-dma near $53.50 just to confirm the move higher. Our target is $57.50, which could take several weeks to hit.

Current Position: Long TGT stock, entry was at $53.00

Entry on August 9, 2010
Earnings Date 08/18/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.5 million
Listed on August 7, 2010


Teck Resources Ltd - TCK - close 35.33 change +0.70 stop 32.65

Target(s): 36.00, 36.75, 37.70
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 37.00, 36.00, 34.75, 34.00, 33.00, 32.25
Current Gain/Loss: -0.62%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
8/9: TCK rebounded nicely today closing +2% higher. The stock is maintaining its 20-day SMA and upward trend line. I'm looking for TCK to move back up towards its 200-day SMA and possibly its 5/10 highs. I suggest taking profits or tightening stops at these levels. I've adjusted the 2nd target to $36.75.

8/7: Dollar weakness on Friday boosted gold and copper prices but stocks turned lower and TCK gave up -1.8%. I am somewhat concerned by the failed rally near $37 and its June highs but the Point & Figure chart looks very bullish and is forecasting a $50.00 target. I would look for a bounce near $34.00 and its 50-dma as another bullish entry point for TCK.

Current Position: Long TCK stock, entry was at $35.55

Entry on August 5, 2010
Earnings More than 2 months (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.4 million
Listed on July 31, 2010


ProShares UltraShort 20 YR Treasury - TBT - close 36.01 change +0.23 stop 35.55

Target(s): 36.90 (hit), 37.50 (hit), 38.00, 39.25, 40.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 42.00, 41,00, 39.70, 38.25, 37.55, 34.65
Current Gain/Loss: -1.37%
Time Frame: Several Weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
8/9: We are hanging in here with TBT and any breakout in equities should get this ETF moving in our direction in earnest. I believe bond prices are close to or at a top and could experience a steep decline in the near term (bullish for TBT). Regardless of whether or not that happens I suggest being prepared to take profits or tighten stops at the any of the above targets as they approach. All are still valid.

8/7: The disappointing jobs data shocked the market and investors rushed money into the safety of the bond market again. Rising bonds are negative for this short bond ETF and the TBT gapped open lower and hit $35.70 on Friday afternoon. If this trend continues the TBT will hit our stop loss (35.55) on Monday. If we do get stopped out I would keep the TBT on your watch list. Firms like Goldman Sachs are expecting the bond market rally to continue until the yields on the 10-year note hit the 2.25% region. That would be bearish for the TBT.

Current Position: Long TBT stock, entry was at $36.51

Options Traders: Long September $37.00 CALL

Entry on July 27, 2010
Earnings N/A (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.8 million
Listed on July 24, 2010


Financial SPDR ETF - XLF - close: 14.86 change: +0.08 stop: 14.45

Target(s): 16.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 14.50, 15.00-15.10, 15.40
Current Gain/Loss: N/A
Time Frame: Several weeks
New Positions: Yes, trigger at $15.15

Comments:
8/9: We are waiting to be triggered on a breakout. Our comments from below have not changed.

8/7: As much as I doubt the rally in stocks the trend in the XLF is growing more bullish. This financial ETF has been consolidating under resistance near $15.00 and its 200-dma for weeks. You can almost see the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. If the XLF breaks the neckline to this pattern it would forecast a move toward $16.50. I'm willing to let go of my bearish bias if the XLF can breakout above resistance. Use a trigger at $15.15 to open small bullish positions. Our target is $16.50.

Suggested Position: Long XLF stock at $15.15

Entry on August xx
Earnings Date: N/A
Average Daily Volume: 82 million
Listed on August 7th, 2010


BEARISH Play Updates

SPDR DJIA ETF - DIA - close 107.12 change +0.43 stop 108.75

Target(s): 106.25 (hit), 105.40, 104.75, 103.65
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 108.00, 107.00, 105.90, 104.75, 104.20, 103.50
Current Gain/Loss: -0.60%
Time Frame: 1 week
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
8/9: On Friday DIA came within 6 cents of hitting our 2nd target so I have raised it by 15 cents. Friday's late day rally looked like classic short covering to me but, nonetheless, it is a support level to be aware of for potential exits or an area to tighten stops to protect capital. If DIA breaks Friday's low it should continue lower to our more aggressive targets. Now we await tomorrow's reaction to the FOMC announcement. This most likely means a volatile afternoon session and may present some opportunities to exit positions. It could happen fast just like Friday but this time it might keep going.

8/7: The bearish jobs number would have been the perfect catalyst for stocks to breakdown but they did not. Traders actually covered their shorts into the closing bell ahead of the weekend. What are bears afraid of? I suspect they are worried about the FOMC meeting this Tuesday. What will the Fed say and what will they do. Many are expecting some form of quantitative easing to help spur the economy again. I would still consider new bearish positions on the DIA but I would look for a decline under Friday's low. Use a trigger at $104.90 as your entry point. I suspect this ETF will trade down toward its 50-dma or lower.

Current Position: Short DIA stock, entry was at $106.48

Options Traders: Buy September $106.00 PUTS

Entry on August 3, 2010
Earnings: N/A (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 14 million
Listed on August 2, 2010


Con-way Inc. - CNW - close: 30.58 change: -0.22 stop: 34.05

Target(s): 25.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 25.00, 28.00, 32.00
Current Gain/Loss: N/A
Time Frame: Several Weeks
New Positions: Yes, trigger 31.75

Comments:
8/9: CNW has a ways to go to reach our trigger to enter short positions. Depending on the reaction to tomorrow's FOMC announcement aggressive traders may consider positions at current levels. A break below $29.90 should get things moving to the downside.

8/7: A number of the transport stocks have been doing very well. As a matter of fact the Dow Jones Transportation index looks poised to breakout higher. Unfortunately for shareholders of CNW the opposite is true. The company reported earnings this past week and missed estimates. The stock gapped down but managed a bounce from support. Odds are good that CNW could fill the gap before rolling over again. The top of the gap at $32.00 should be new resistance. I am suggesting a trigger to open bearish positions at $31.75. We'll use a stop loss at $34.05. (More conservative traders could always wait for a close under $28.00 before launching positions). Our first target is $25.50.

Suggested Position: Short CNW stock if it trades to 31.75

Entry on August xx
Earnings Date 11/03/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million
Listed on August 7, 2010


Temple Inland Inc. - TIN - close: 19.23 change: -0.27 stop: 21.25

Target(s): 18.25, 16.00, 14.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 20.00, 19.00, 18.00, 16.00
Current Gain/Loss: +1.38%
Time Frame: Several Weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
8/8: Short positions were initiated at the open and TIN spent most of the day rolling over. The chart of TIN looks vulnerable and I like the short play. But I also want to caution readers that if the broader market breaks higher TIN could just as easily bounce with it. I've added $19.00 as a support/resistance area and $18.25 as a target. A move to $18.25 is more than 6% away from our short entry.

8/7: After three months of consolidating sideways in a neutral pattern of lower highs and higher lows it looks like the bears finally won. TIN reported earnings in late July and missed estimates. The reaction pushed shares toward support. The weakness on Friday broke that trend line of support. I am suggesting bearish positions now, at current levels. We'll use a stop loss at $21.25. Our first target is $16.00.

Suggested Position: Short TIN stock, entry was at $19.50

Entry on August 9, 2010
Earnings Date 10/21/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.8 million
Listed on August 7, 2010