Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Athenahealth, Inc. - ATHN - close 31.13 change +1.67 stop 26.90 *NEW*

Target(s): 31.50 (hit), 32.95, 34.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 34.25, 31.75, 30.00, 28.25, 25.75
Current Gain/Loss: +2.91%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes, preferably on weakness

Comments:
8/17: ATHN tacked on more gains after yesterday's breakout. Our first target of $31.50 has been hit and I've added a 2nd target of $32.95. I'm going to raise the stop to $26.90 which is below all of the upward trend lines and the 20-day SMA. My comments from below remain valid.

8/16: ATHN had a huge day closing +5.67% on the day. The stock was having a fabulous day and this afternoon the company received an upgrade which helped add to the gains. Our lower target to enter positions was missed by 37 cents so positions were entered on strength at $30.25. ATHN is finding a little resistance at $31.50 which is just below the July 2009 lows. There could be a pullback here which will provide a second chance entry point. If we break above today's highs ATHN has some clear air up towards our more aggressive targets. I've added $32.95 (adjusted on 8/17) as our second target.

8/14: ATHN is in the business of automating health care records and billing. I like ATHN as a long defensive play that should thrive as healthcare regulation takes form. Technically ATHN had a huge gap down after they missed earnings estimates in late April. Since then the stock has formed a nice cup and handle pattern which signals the "changing of the guard" from sellers to buyers. The company reported earnings in late July that beat estimates and the stock is now gaining momentum. On Friday, ATHN closed right on a downward trend line from January but I think it is only a matter of time before this is broken, which is typical of a cup and handle formation. Ideally, I suggest traders initiate long positions on any weakness, but a break out is another strategy. Let's use $28.50 as a trigger on weakness and $30.25 as a trigger on strength. ATHN has a big gap to fill all the way up near $34.00 which is our most aggressive target. Our near term target is $31.50. Our initial stop is $25.50 which is below its upward trend line and the rising 20-day SMA.

Current Position: Long ATHN stock, entry was at $30.25

Options Traders: Long September $31.00 CALL

Entry on August 16, 2010
Earnings 10/28/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 767,000
Listed on August 14, 2010


Newmont Mining Corp - NEM - close 58.38 change +0.67 stop 52.20

Target(s): 59.30, 60.50, 61.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 62.00, 59.50, 58.16, 55.00, 54.30, 52.30
Current Gain/Loss: +2.87%
Time Frame: Several weeks
New Positions: No

Comments:
8/17: NEM closed just above its 50-day SMA and is about $1 away from 1st target. A trip up to this level could happen fast and I suggest readers be quick to protect profits or simply exit positions if this level is reached. My comments from below remain valid.

8/16: NEM gained +1.75% and is consolidating above its 100-day SMA and below its 50-day SMA's. We need a break above Thursday's high and the 50-day SMA to get NEM moving towards our targets. I am expecting strength in the broader market which should help our cause.

8/14: We are in NEM at $56.75 per last night's updates. The stock is consolidating below its 50-day SMA and any broader market strength or strength in gold should catapult NEM up towards our targets.

Current Position: Long NEM stock, entry was at $56.75

Entry on August 13, 2010
Earnings 11/3/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.7 million
Listed on August 10, 2010


Oceaneering International - OII - close 51.98 change +2.33 stop 46.60

Target(s): 53.00, 54.40, 57.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 57.50, 54.50, 53.40, 49.00
Current Gain/Loss: +5.65%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes, preferably on weakness

Why We Like It:
8/17: OII surged +4.69% higher today and we have gained +5.65% in the position. The stock is approaching our first target of $53.00 which is also just below the 100-day SMA and recent swing high. This is an area to consider taking profits, or at least protecting them.

8/16: Long positions in OII were initiated at the open at $49.20. The stock finished the day strong closing +0.34% higher. We need OII to break above its 20-day SMA at $50.19 and the stock should re-test its recent swing high just above our first target of $53.00.

8/14: With the recent oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico the oil services industry is being turned upside down with regulations and drilling moratoriums. I think OII will benefit because the new rules in the gulf point to more underwater robotic contracts. And it just so happens that OII recently raised their guidance because of it. This past week's dip has come right into an upward trend line and a prior resistance level which should now act as support. This is a buying opportunity in OII. I suggest readers enter long positions now. Our stop is $46.60 which is below OII's recent swing low and its rising 50-day SMA. We have three realistic near term targets that will produce a winning nice trade if they are reached.

Current Position: Long OII stock, entry was at $49.20

Options Traders: Long September $50.00 CALL

Entry on August 16, 2010
Earnings 10/28/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 807,000
Listed on August 14, 2010


BEARISH Play Updates

Chesapeake Energy - CHK - close 21.32 change +0.39 stop 22.85

Target(s): 19.70, 18.80, 18.05
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 22.50, 21.60, 20.30, 19.65, 18.75, 18.00
Current Gain/Loss: -2.45% Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
8/17: CHK rallied higher with the market today and closed an unfilled gap from 8/12. The remains below its moving averages and trend lines which should keep bounces in check. I suggest exhibiting patience with this trade while the broader market completes this bounce.

8/16: We are short CHK as of the open at $20.81. CHK looks vulnerable but the stock could bounce with the market so we may need to exhibit some patience. CHK has trend lines, moving averages, and resistance levels overhead to keep bounces in check. My comments from below have not changed.

8/14: CHK is a good company but it is facing significant headwinds. There is increasing pressure to ban drilling in the Marcellus shale. Pennsylvania is considering a year long moratorium so they can study fracturing problems and its impact on drinking water. If the process is halted in the Marcellus shale then it will probably be halted in the Haynesville and Barnett shale plays, which are the primary assets of CHK. Technically, CHK looks like it is about ready to lose it. The stock is trading in a wide downward channel and on Friday it closed below an upward trend line. It would be nice to short CHK on a bounce but I'm not sure it will happen. I suggest we initiate short positions now. Our most aggressive target right now is to test the July 2009 lows near $18.05. Our stop is $22.85 which is above the recent swing high and several moving averages.

Current Position: Short CHK stock, entry was at $20.81

Options Traders: Long October $20.00 PUTS

Entry on August 16, 2010
Earnings: 11/2/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10 million
Listed on August 14, 2010


Con-way Inc. - CNW - close: 27.54 change: +0.82 stop: 34.05

Target(s): 28.75, 28.25, 25.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 25.00, 28.00, 32.00
Current Gain/Loss: N/A
Time Frame: Several Weeks
New Positions: Yes, trigger 29.20

Comments:
8/17: CNW gained +3% today but the stock finished the day near its lows. Let's move the trigger down $29.20 to enter short positions. I'll adjust the stop once we are in the trade.

8/16: CNW can't seem to catch a bid. I suggest we remain patient here and see if CNW bounces with the market up to our trigger to enter short positions at $29.80. My comments from below have not changed.

8/14: The sellers are obviously overwhelming the buyers in CNW and the stock has run away from us, closing -4.30% on Friday. I do not suggest chasing it down here. I am going to leave this play open and see if CNW manages to bounce back up to fill some of these recent gaps. I'm going to lower the trigger to $29.80. If anyone caught it short it has been a good play, but unfortunately our trigger wasn't hit.

Suggested Position: Short CNW stock if it trades to $29.80

Entry on August xx
Earnings Date 11/03/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million
Listed on August 7, 2010


SPDR Retail ETF - XRT - close 36.97 change +0.09 stop 39.28

Target(s): 36.00, 35.25, 34.65
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 39.00, 38.00, 37.60, 36.50, 35.80, 35.00
Current Gain/Loss: +0.21%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
8/17: We are short XRT as of the open today at $37.52. Retailers caught a bid today when Wal-Mart and Home Depot beat earnings estimates, while others posted mixed results. However, WMT and HD narrowed their guidance and I believe the bounce in XRT will be short lived and is a good short at these levels. If the broader market remains strong we may need to be patient, but when the bounce is over XRT should quickly head towards our targets.

8/16: The retail sector is facing many headwinds from a weak consumer and many analysts are already pointing to a dismal back to school season. In addition, retailers are going to have offer deeper discounts than they are currently just to get consumers into stores to buy things. This will negatively affect earnings and if retailers begin to warn investors by lowering guidance XRT will suffer. I've chosen the ETF as opposed to individual names to filter out some of the earnings noise being reported this week by many major retailers. I do expect a bounce in the overall market in the coming days and suggest readers initiate short positions on any strength. We'll use $37.35 as a trigger to enter short positions in XRT. Our stop will be $39.28 which is above two downtrend lines and the 20, 50, and 200-day SMA's. If triggered, our first two targets are -3.5% and -5.5% away, respectively.

Current Position: Short XRT stock, entry was at $37.52

Options Traders: Long September $36.00 PUTS

Entry on August 17, 2010
Earnings: 11/2/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 12 million
Listed on August 16, 2010


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Intrepid Potash - IPI - close 25.30 change +1.34 stop 22.25

Target(s): 25.35 (hit), 26.30 (hit), 27.20
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 27.40, 26.50, 24.45, 22.65
Final Gain/Loss: +11.02%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Closed

Comments:
8/17: IPI gapped higher near our second target of $26.30 so we are flat the position for a +11% gain. The fertilizer names (particularly potash producers) caught a bid after BHP Billiton offered to buy Potash Corp (POT). The news caused other potash companies to surge on the news as well. We caught a break on the gap higher but this was one of the very reasons we were in the trade, i.e. the agriculture market heating up and gaining momentum. When you get a gap like this I suggest fiercely protecting profits or simply exit to book gains. We ay look to re-enter this trade on any further pullbacks.

8/16: IPI gained +1.74% today and closed above its 20-day SMA. We need the stock to break above $24.45 which Thursday's high and 100-day SMA. This should get things moving towards our targets and produce a winning a trade.

8/14: We caught a break with IPI as it gapped lower on Friday enabling us to get a good fill. The stock traded within yesterday's range so there is not much to report. I'm looking for this stock to bounce this week and suggest tightening stops on the way up to protect profits.

8/12: The agriculture market is heating up, literally. Heat waves and fires are causing a shortage of agriculture commodities and it is causing prices to spike. Farmers want and need to grow more crops and they need fertilizers to do it. So we are back with a play in IPI which was a dropped play a few weeks ago because we did not get triggered. Technically IPI has retraced about 50% of the +35% spike off of its 52 week low that was printed on 7/1. Today the stock bounced hard just above its 50-day SMA, gaining +4% and printing a bullish engulfing candlestick in the process. This appears to be the higher low that will lead to new highs. I suggest we use one of two triggers to enter positions which should happen tomorrow. If IPI trades to $24.42 (above today's high) or on any weakness to $23.90. The stock is up 23 cents in the after hours so we may get filled at the higher price. Regardless, the momentum is building and I think IPI will re-test its recent highs or print new highs. I've offered a near term target for readers looking for a quicker exit but I'm ultimately looking for the stock to head up to $26 to $27.

Closed Position: Long IPI stock at $26.30, entry was at $23.69

Annotated chart:

Entry on August 13, 2010
Earnings 11/4/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 937,000
Listed on August 12, 2010