Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

The Andersons, Inc - ANDE - close 37.61 change +0.15 stop 34.45

Target(s): 38.40, 38.95, 39.90, 41.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 41.50, 40.50, 39.20, 37.50 to 38.00, 35.50
Current Gain/Loss: +1.59%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes, on pullbacks

Comments:
9/14: We got the breakout today but it was short lived as ANDE closed only slightly positive after gaining nearly +3% in morning trading and almost hit our first target. The stock sold off the remainder of the day and printed an ugly topping tail candlestick. The good news is that today's closing price was a new 52-week high close. ANDE has solid support at current levels and below but the broader market looks ready to pullback. Readers may want to consider a tighter stop in $36.45 to $36.90 area.

9/13: ANDE closed right at $37.50 which is where the stock has struggled recently. If price keeps knocking at this level the door should open. Now we need a breakout.

Current Position: Long ANDE stock, entry was at $37.02

Options Traders: Buy December $40.00 Calls, current ask $2.10

Entry on August 19, 2010
Earnings 10/28/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 180,000
Listed on August 18, 2010


Brocade Communications - BRCD - close 5.90 change -0.07 stop 4.95

Target(s): 6.00, 6.20, 6.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 6.60, 6.20, 6.00, 5.75, 5.40, 5.00
Current Gain/Loss: +2.61%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes, on pullbacks

Comments:
9/14: BRCD pulled a repeat of yesterday and printed its third consecutive bottoming tail candlestick. The stock remains in a bull flag but could pullback with the broader market. I think pullbacks can be bought and will be short lived.

9/13: BRCD was under a little pressure early but the stock recovered nicely and closed near its highs of the day. The stock is just below the 200-day SMA and our first target is approaching.

9/11: BRCD traded down to $5.72 and bounced nicely on Friday. We are long the stock at $5.75. It's too bad we missed our initial trigger by 4 cents at $5.46 but I still like the set-up. I've increased the first target to $6.00.

Current Position: Long BRCD stock, entry was at $5.75

Options Traders: Long October $6 CALL

Entry on September 10, 2010
Earnings 11/23/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 12.7 million
Listed on September 4, 2010


Noble Corp - NE - close 35.35 change +0.16stop 32.25

Target(s): 36.85, 38.30
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 36.95, 38.50, 33.50
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks

Comments:
9/13 & 9/14: We are waiting to be triggered at $34.60, which is about -2% lower from current levels. My comments from the play release below have not changed.

9/11: Fundamentally NE is a cheap stock that trades at a PE under 7. Technically, the stock broke out of a downtrend line that began on 4/27. Volume has been picking up as the stock is moving higher and it is also consolidating near its highs on lighter volume, which is a bullish sign. I suggest we use a trigger of $34.60 to open long positions. Our two targets are +6.5% and +10.5% higher. Our initial stop will be $32.25 which is below the rising 20-day and 50-day SMA's.

Suggested Position: Long NE stock if it trades to $34.60

Options Traders: Buy October $36.00 CALL, current ask $1.12, estimated ask at entry $0.85

Entry on September XX
Earnings 10/20/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.7 million
Listed on September 11, 2010


Northern Oil & Gas - NOG - close 15.00 change -0.22 stop 14.25

Target(s): 15.95, 16.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 17.25, 16.20, 15.75, 15.00, 14.60
Current Gain/Loss: -0.33%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
9/14: We are long NOG at $15.05. There is solid support all the way down to $14.60 including an upward trend line, the 20 and 50-day moving averages and prior support/resistance levels. Pullbacks should get bought and I like new positions on any further dips. Our first target has been lowered 5 cents to $15.95 which is +6% higher than our entry. I've left the play release below.

9/8: Oil and oil stocks should do well on the slightest prospects of an economic recovery. NOG is a land based driller with major assets in the Bakken region in North Dakota, which is one of the largest discoveries of proven oil reserves ever found in the United States. NOG is forming a bull flag on its daily chart and looks poised to breakout. The stock is consolidating above all of its major moving averages which should also help to provide support on any pullbacks. I suggest readers use a trigger $15.05 to initiate long positions. Our two targets are +6% and +9% higher. Our stop is below all of the moving averages and the recent upward trend line.

Current Position: Long NOG stock, entry was at $15.05

Options Traders: Long October $15.00 CALL

Entry on September 14, 2010
Earnings 10/25/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 506,000
Listed on September 8, 2010


Power-One, Inc - PWER - close 11.16 change -0.36 stop 9.68

Target(s): 11.60, 12.00, 12.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 13.00, 11.75, 50-day, 9.50
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks

Comments:
9/13 & 9/14: I suggest we remain patient and wait for our trigger at $10.80 which is just above the rising 20 and 50-day SMA's and an upward trend line. A pullback in the broader market should get us there.

9/11: Well, PWER came within 1 penny of triggering our long entry so I'm going to raise the trigger to $10.80. Either someone doesn't want to let us in long positions or I am good at picking intraday support levels. Maybe both but we should get filled in the next day or two. There is lots of support below that I think will hold (see below comments).

9/7: Take a look at the grey volume bars on the chart below. It is clear PWER is being accumulated with institutional money as the price has risen over the past 18 months. I like PWER's business and believe this stock will continue to get bought if the market cooperates. I suggest readers use a trigger of $10.75 to enter long positions and target a move back towards the stock's recent high. This is above the stock's upward trend line and the 50-day SMA. Our initial stop will be below both of these at $9.68.

Suggested Position: Long PWER stock if it trades to $10.80

Options Traders: Buy October $11.00 CALL, current ask $1.00

Entry on September XX
Earnings 10/21/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.3 million
Listed on September 7, 2010


iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures - VXX - close 17.57 change -0.01 stop 16.60

Target(s): 19.60, 20.40
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 17.50, 19.75, 20.60
Current Gain/Loss: -0.73%
Time Frame: 1 week
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
NOTE: I view this as an aggressive trade so small position size is recommended. Long VXX is a bearish play on equities, however, it is listed as long play because we are long the underlying instrument.

9/14: We are long VXX as of today's open which is a bearish play on equities. I'm looking for a quick spike in volatility with a pullback in the broader market. There is resistance at $18.50 which could easily get hit with one big down day in the market. My comments from the play release remain valid.

9/13: The market is overbought and needs a healthy pullback to regain its energy. Traders are getting complacent and I believe there will be a spike in volatility in the coming days. VXX printed a new 52-week low today which barely undercut its 4/21 low which was just before the S&P 500 began to sell-off in earnest. This creates a potential double bottom set-up and I suggest readers initiate long positions at current levels. I also view this as a good hedge against our open long positions in the model portfolio. Our profit targets are +11% and +16% from current levels.

Suggested Position: Long VXX stock at current levels

Options Traders: Buy October $19.00 CALL, current ask $1.00

Entry on September 14, 2010
Earnings N/A (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 21 million
Listed on September 13, 2010


BEARISH Play Updates

Intuit, Inc. - INTU - close 43.90 change -0.18 stop 45.32

Target(s): 42.00, 41.40, 40.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 45.00, 43.25, 42.00, 41.35, 50-day SMA
Current Gain/Loss: -1.32%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
9/14: INTU is maintaining an intraday downtrend line and I'm expecting the stock to turn lower with the broader market. $43.25 is a key level for the stock break and head lower.

9/13: INTU closed its gap down on Friday. I'm looking for the stock to turn lower now. My comments from below have not changed.

9/11: We got a little unlucky with the gap lower in INTU on Friday but it was expected on the heels of a downgrade. Nonetheless, I'm looking for the stock to continue lower. The broader market will most likely determine how far this goes. Our first two targets are -3% and -4.5% lower from here. The play write-up is below.

9/9: UBS cut its rating on INTU from neutral to buy this afternoon, which is when the selling in the stock began in earnest. In addition, price targets from other analysts are in the $45 range which INTU printed on Tuesday. The stock also printed all-time highs on Tuesday but is showing signs of an imminent decline, especially if the broader market pulls back. Tuesday's candlestick is a reversal pattern and it was confirmed today with a bearish engulfing candlestick. I suggest readers initiate short positions at current levels and play for a pullback to our targets which are near three support/resistance levels. Our stop will be just over Tuesday's high. Our targets are -4.5% to -8% below current levels. I also think this is a good play to consider options which creates defined risk. For example, buying 4 contracts of the October $42.50 strike for 90 cents (mid point of the current bid/ask spread) will cost you $360.00. Should INTU stock move -$1.50 lower over the next 1 to 2 weeks those options should be worth about $1.40. This would represent a +55% gain (or a $200 return on your $360 at risk). I bring this up due to all of the M&A activity and I would rather see readers protect against a large gap if INTU happens to be a takeover target, although I haven't heard anything to substantiate this. Simply put, the stock looks ready for a pullback. Please email me with any questions.

Current Position: Short INTU stock, entry was at $43.33

Option Traders: Long October $42.50 PUTS

Entry on September, 10, 2010
Earnings: 11/18/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4 million
Listed on September 9, 2010


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Coeur d'Alene Mines - CDE - close 18.47 change +0.73 stop 16.45

Target(s): 18.40 (hit), 18.95 (hit), 19.95
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 20.00, 19.00, 17.80, 16.70
Final Gain/Loss: +5.87%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Closed

Comments:
9/14: CDE broke out higher today and reached our first two targets. In last night's updates I suggested taking profits if we broke out higher prior to a pullback. As such, we have closed the position for a +5.8% gain. 9/13: CDE remains in a bull flag on its daily chart. If this breaks out higher prior to a pullback I suggest readers take profits or tighten stops to protect them.

9/11: I've tightened the stop to $16.45 and adjusted the first target down 5 cents. My comments from below remain the same.

9/9: I am looking for the stock to move up towards its May highs but if the broader market doesn't follow through we may get a pullback first. Readers may want to use a tighter stop in the $16.40 area.

Closed Position: Long CDE stock at $18.95, entry was at $17.90

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 7, 2010
Earnings 11/4/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.0 million
Listed on September 1, 2010



CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Ultrashort MSCI Europe - EPV - close 17.95 change -0.73 stop 17.78

Target(s): 19.40 (hit), 19.75, 20.20
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 18.00, 19.40, 20.25, 20.60
Current Gain/Loss: -5.93%
Time Frame: 1 week
New Positions: Closed

Comments:
NOTE: This is an double inverse ETF and a bearish play on European equities. Expect volatility and use small position size to manage risk.

9/14: We were taken out of EPV this morning when the broader market bounced off of its lows so we are flat the position for a loss. In hindsight we were a little too early with this play but we have to honor our stops. Readers who may still have positions I would probably stick with it and target a move up to the $19.50 to $20.00 area.

9/13: We are very close to getting stopped out of EPV. Any strength in European equities tomorrow will most likely take us out. If EPV gaps open near our stop tomorrow I suggest readers place a new stop below the first 15 or 30 minute opening range. This will allow you to measure the true weakness in the stock and often times keeps you in the position looking for a better exit.

9/11: EPV is good hedge against our long positions right now. If global equities turn lower our targets should get hit relatively quick. New positions can be considered now.

Closed Position: Long EPV stock at $17.78, entry was at $18.90

Annotated chart:

Entry on September, 3, 2010
Earnings N/A
Average Daily Volume: 259,000
Listed on August 31, 2010