Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Brocade Communications - BRCD - close 5.65 change -0.02 stop 5.34

Target(s): 5.95, 6.20, 6.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 6.60, 6.20, 6.00, 5.75, 5.40, 5.00
Current Gain/Loss: -1.74%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
9/21: BRCD traded relatively quiet today. My comments below remain the same.

9/18 & 9/20: I am concerned about BRCD per my 9/15 comments. However, the stock has held its ground and remains in a bull flag. It could just as easily break higher or lower. If a breakout occurs before a pullback I suggest readers begin to look for an exit or tighten stops to protect profits. $5.95 and $6.20 are the primary targets.

9/15: Oh what a day makes. At an analyst day this afternoon BRCD said they were expecting gross margins to be at the low end of their estimated range in 2011. This news sent the stock tumbling. As such, I want to tighten the stop $5.34 and suggest we step aside if it is hit. I've lowered the first target to $5.95 which is just below today's high.

Current Position: Long BRCD stock, entry was at $5.75

Options Traders: Long October $6 CALL

Entry on September 10, 2010
Earnings 11/23/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 12.7 million
Listed on September 4, 2010


Noble Corp - NE - close 35.26 change -0.11 stop 32.25

Target(s): 35.90, 36.80, 38.30
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 36.95, 38.50, 33.50
Current Gain/Loss: +1.91%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes, on pullbacks

Comments:
9/21: NE continues to look strong but I am concerned about the overbought conditions in the broader market. A dip could come but I think it will be bought and may give readers another chance to enter. My comments below remain valid.

9/18: NE made a nice recovery today closing +1.7% on the day. The stock remains in a bull flag on its daily chart. If we break higher prior to a pullback I suggest readers look for an exit or tighten stops to lock in profits. I've added $35.90 as a target which is approximately +4% from our entry, while $36.80 is +6%. I'll be looking to take profits or tighten stops as these levels approach.

9/15: NE traded down to $34.36 and bounced hard into the close. Our first target is just under the 200-day SMA and near the 8/4 highs. Our stop is below the converging 20, 50, and 100 day moving averages. My comments from the play release remain the same.

Current Position: Long NE stock, entry was at $34.60

Options Traders: Long October $36.00 CALL

Entry on September 15, 2010
Earnings 10/20/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.7 million
Listed on September 11, 2010


iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures - VXX - close 16.79 change +0.06 stop NONE

Target(s): 18.45, 19.25, 20.40
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 17.50, 18.50, 19.75, 20.60
Current Gain/Loss: -5.14%
Time Frame: 1 week
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
NOTE: I view this as an aggressive trade so small position size is recommended. Long VXX is a bearish play on equities, however, it is listed as long play because we are long the underlying instrument.

9/21: I suggest we stick with no stop here and play for a broader market pullback. The bulls look tired and the pullback could come quick as traders will run for the exits to lock in profits. This is when we want to be selling positions and tightening stops. For readers who do not have positions I view the depressed levels in VXX as an opportunity for nice quick trade. Just remember to plan your exit and stick with it. $18.45 and $19.30 (adjusted 20 cents lower) are the primary targets.

9/20: I want to temporarily remove the stop in VXX as it is too close to current levels. We will get a spike in volatility in the coming days which is when we will close VXX for a profit, or tighten stops. This is risky move and a judgment call based on the current overbought conditions and low volatility levels. My comments below remain valid.

9/18: My guess is that a breakout prior to a pullback will most likely stop us out in VXX. But I like volatility here as the market is in much need of a healthy pullback. A pullback will likely be fast and furious and VXX should spike 5% to 10% which will give us an opportunity to close this position for a profit. I've added a target of $18.50. Be ready to take profits or tighten stops to protect them as our targets approach. My comments from below have not changed.

Current Position: Long VXX stock, entry was at 17.70

Options Traders: Long October $19.00 CALL

Entry on September 14, 2010
Earnings N/A (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 21 million
Listed on September 13, 2010


BEARISH Play Updates

Deckers Outdoor Corp - DECK - close 48.05 change -1.26 stop 51.15

Target(s): 47.40, 46.10
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 50.25, 45.00, 43.50
Current Gain/Loss: +2.56% Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks

Comments:
9/21: We are short DECK as of the today's open. The stock proceeded to sell-off -2.50% today and looks headed towards our targets just below. My comments from the play release below remain the same.

9/20: The retail sector has experienced an impressive string of consecutive advances and is due for pullback with the broader market. DECK has overhead resistance and is sitting just below a downtrend line that began with its 52-week highs in June. I suggest readers initiate short positions at current levels and play for -4% to -6.5% pullback. Our stop will be above the downtrend line and it will be adjusted after we are in the trade.

Current Position: Short DECK stock, entry was at $49.31

Entry on September 21, 2010
Earnings: 10/21/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 859,000
Listed on September 20, 2010


Freeport-McMoRan - FCX - close 82.99 change -0.36 stop 84.55

Target(s): 80.20, 79.40, 78.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 84.25, 76.50, 75.00
Current Gain/Loss: -2.52%
Time Frame: 1 week
New Positions: Yes, if playing for quick pullback

Comments:
9/21: What a day, FCX gave up all of yesterday's big advance and then some by the time noon rolled around. However, after the FOMC announcement the stock rallied hard into the close. All told, FCX traded in a 3% range today and closed down 36 cents. Traders holding long positions in FCX had a scare today and if selling picks up again we could see a sharp move lower. This is when we should consider exiting positions or tightening stops as our targets approach.

9/20: A Goldman Sachs upgrade on FCX to buy from neutral sent the stock +2% higher today. As a result, our position suffered greatly and now we need to look for an exit. This move higher in FCX can not continue but it appears any dips will most likely get bought. I've added an immediate target of $80.20, while $79.40 will fill a gap higher. FCX should make it down to these levels on a pullback and is where I suggest readers close positions or tighten stops to protect capital. This could all come at once on one big down day.

Current Position: Short FCX stock, entry was at $80.95

Options Traders: Long October $75.00 PUT

Entry on September 15, 2008
Earnings: 10/20/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10 million
Listed on September 14, 2010


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS


Northern Oil & Gas - NOG - close 15.51 change +0.45 stop 14.25

Target(s): 15.68 (hit), 15.95 (hit), 16.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 17.25, 16.20, 15.75, 15.00, 14.60
Final Gain/Loss: +5.98%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes, on pullbacks

Comments:
9/21: NOG surged higher again today and hit our $15.95 target. I've been advocating using a breakout to close positions so we are flat for a +5.98% gain. For readers who may still have positions I would raise your stop to the $15.50 to $15.60 area to protect profits. I still believe this trade has some potential but I am concerned about the overbought conditions in the market. 9/20: NOG broke to the upside today and out of its bull flag. This trade has some potential but I am concerned about the overbought conditions in the broader market. Our first target is overhead and readers should consider taking profits or tightening stops to protect them as they approach.

9/18: NOG bounced nicely off of its 50-day SMA on Thursday and remains above support. The stock is forming bull flag on its daily chart and we're looking for a breakout. If NOG heads higher before going lower be prepared to take profits as our targets approach. I'm concerned we may see a spike higher only to see it fail. I've added a target of $15.68 which is +4% higher than our entry.

Closed Position: Long NOG stock at $15.95, entry was at $15.05

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 14, 2010
Earnings 10/25/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 506,000
Listed on September 8, 2010